New York By The Numbers: Monthly Economic and Fiscal Outlook
** New York by the Numbers
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** Monthly Economic and Fiscal Outlook
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By NYC Comptroller Brad Lander
Francesco Brindisi, Executive Deputy Comptroller for Budget and Finance
Krista Olson, Deputy Comptroller for Budget
Jonathan Siegel, Chief Economist
Photo Credit: Ryan DeBerardinis/Shutterstock
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** No. 75 - March 21st, 2023
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** A Message from the Comptroller
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Dear New Yorkers,
The economic numbers are mixed again this month. On the positive side, employment in New York City is now back at 99% of pre-pandemic levels, even with layoffs in technology. Restaurants and hotels, which took the hardest hit, are back at 95%.
But the bank failures at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank pose serious new concerns (and remind us of the importance of strong public policy to manage risk, even when fast-talking lobbyists push to eliminate it). Inflation remains stubbornly high, and now the Fed’s ongoing efforts to combat it through interest rate increases could have implications for other mid-sized banks already under scrutiny by their depositors. And if banks become even more reluctant to make new loans, the likelihood of a recession grows.
Meanwhile, the ongoing arrival of families seeking asylum has pushed the shelter census to its highest levels ever, as the housing market remains tight. (Check out our issue brief ([link removed]) , which details the contracts the City is entering into to provide shelter – and outlines the work needed to help people get out of shelter).
The City’s budget is mixed-news, too. Higher-than-expected revenues thus far will help to balance the budget for this fiscal year and next. But new labor contracts, declines on Wall Street, and the end of federal pandemic aid portend big gaps in the following years. (See our analysis of the Mayor’s Preliminary Budget ([link removed]) and my testimony to the City Council ([link removed]) ).
For Women’s History Month, our spotlight ([link removed]) focuses on the “care economy,” which has long been neglected and undercompensated, despite the centrality of care workers to all of our families, precisely because nurturing our kids and caring for our elders has been characterized as “women’s work.”
If we learned anything from the pandemic, it should drive us to better value care work. As the data shows, it has largely been public policy – raising the minimum wage, adding a small but meaningful boost for home care workers, and “pay parity” for childcare workers in the public and nonprofit sectors – that has achieved modest pay raises for home care and childcare workers in NYC, a workforce that remains largely low-income women of color.
Don’t let the mixed economic signals keep you from enjoying the first hints of spring. While you’re watching for the first blooms, we’ll keep watching the numbers.
Sincerely,
Brad Lander
** Table of Contents
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** The U.S. Economy ([link removed])
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** NYC Labor Markets ([link removed])
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** Housing & Real Estate ([link removed])
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** Wall Street Profits ([link removed])
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** Travel and Tourism ([link removed])
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** City Finances ([link removed])
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Read the Full March Economic Newsletter ([link removed])
** Spotlight:
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** Care Workers and the NYC Economy
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Prepared by Andre Vasilyev
Care work is one of the fastest-growing ([link removed]) components of New York City’s economy – but frequently one of the most neglected. The pandemic highlighted the importance of care workers to the city’s economy and families, but also caused a great deal of disruption. At the same time, the supply of care worker labor has been constricted, as some left their jobs due to heightened health risk, inadequate support ([link removed]) , and higher-paying jobs in other sectors ([link removed]) .
This Spotlight takes a deep dive into the care economy in New York City. We examine who care workers are: overwhelmingly women, and on average significantly older, less white, and more likely to be immigrants than non-care workers. We explore recent trends in employment: the number of personal care aides grew significantly from 2019 to 2021, but the number of child care workers and preschool and kindergarten teachers declined.
While care work is compensated at rates far lower than non-care work, public policy actions in recent years have shown the potential for meaningful impact. We document the change in wages by occupation and discuss ongoing policy advocacy efforts to bring more equity and more stability to the care economy.
Read the Spotlight ([link removed])
Read the Full March Economic Newsletter ([link removed])
** Contributors
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Comptroller Lander thanks the following members of the Bureau of Budget for their contributions to this newsletter: Jonathan Siegel, Chief Economist; Yaw Owusu-Ansah, Director of Tax Policy and Revenue Analysis; Steve Corson, Senior Research Analyst; Astha Dutta, Economic Data Analyst; Irina Livshits, Chief, Fiscal Analysis Division; Marcia Murphy, Principal Revenue Analyst; Krista Olson, Deputy Comptroller; and Francesco Brindisi, Executive Deputy Comptroller. Andre Vasilyev, Principal Economic Development Analyst, was the principal author of this month’s spotlight. The Comptroller also thanks Archer Hutchinson for design and lay-out, and welcomes back Angela Chen.
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