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February 16, 2023

The Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control convened an expert panel to
discuss how sanctions and export controls can slow Iran’s aerial drone
development and halt the flow of capable Iranian drones to Russia.

The panel found that there are a handful of technological choke points
where Western countries can still prevent qualitative improvements to
Iranian drones, and it offered ideas about how to better restrict the flow
of these technologies to Iran.

[2]Clipping Tehran's Wings: How Supply-Side Controls Can Impede the Iranian
Drone Program

[3]Iran Watch Roundtable Report

Findings
* Iran’s drone industry is mature and well-diversified, and has advanced
despite sanctions.

* Supply-side controls nonetheless limit the size and capability of
Iran’s drone program. There are technological choke points which could be
blocked to slow or prevent qualitative improvements to Iran’s drones.

* There are inherent limits to supply-side controls, particularly on
low-end technologies. Implementing the "catch-all" controls contained in
multilateral export control arrangements may have the greatest likelihood
of success.

* Economic sanctions have deprived Iran’s defense industry of resources.
Targeted sanctions on the drone program could be expanded, as could U.S.
sanctions designations of third-country companies that supply Iran’s drone
program.

* China presents a challenge for export control aimed at Iran's drone
program.

* Compliance with existing controls can be improved, particularly by
increasing resources for “in-reach” capacity-building in developed
countries that are a source of drone components.

* Other tools could lighten the load of what supply-side controls need to
achieve. In particular, investment in cost-effective counter-drone
technologies to defend against low-tech drones could allow export controls
to focus on higher-end components.

* The war in Ukraine presents opportunities and challenges for
constraining Iran’s drone capabilities.

[4]READ THE ROUNDTABLE REPORT

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Iran Watch is a website published by the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms
Control. The Wisconsin Project is a non-profit, non-partisan organization
that conducts research, advocacy, and public education aimed at inhibiting
strategic trade from contributing to the proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction.

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