February 16, 2023

The Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control convened an expert panel to discuss how sanctions and export controls can slow Iran’s aerial drone development and halt the flow of capable Iranian drones to Russia.

The panel found that there are a handful of technological choke points where Western countries can still prevent qualitative improvements to Iranian drones, and it offered ideas about how to better restrict the flow of these technologies to Iran.
Iran Watch Roundtable Report

Findings

  • Iran’s drone industry is mature and well-diversified, and has advanced despite sanctions.
  • Supply-side controls nonetheless limit the size and capability of Iran’s drone program. There are technological choke points which could be blocked to slow or prevent qualitative improvements to Iran’s drones.
  • There are inherent limits to supply-side controls, particularly on low-end technologies. Implementing the "catch-all" controls contained in multilateral export control arrangements may have the greatest likelihood of success.
  • Economic sanctions have deprived Iran’s defense industry of resources. Targeted sanctions on the drone program could be expanded, as could U.S. sanctions designations of third-country companies that supply Iran’s drone program.
  • China presents a challenge for export control aimed at Iran's drone program.
  • Compliance with existing controls can be improved, particularly by increasing resources for “in-reach” capacity-building in developed countries that are a source of drone components.
  • Other tools could lighten the load of what supply-side controls need to achieve. In particular, investment in cost-effective counter-drone technologies to defend against low-tech drones could allow export controls to focus on higher-end components.
  • The war in Ukraine presents opportunities and challenges for constraining Iran’s drone capabilities.

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Iran Watch is a website published by the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control. The Wisconsin Project is a non-profit, non-partisan organization that conducts research, advocacy, and public education aimed at inhibiting strategic trade from contributing to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. 


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