ISIS militants carried out at least five confirmed attacks in January in Raqqa,
Homs, and Deir Ez Zor governorates. These attacks killed at least seven
pro-Assad regime soldiers and wounded at least two others. Additionally, there
was one high quality* attack in January. ISIS activity in central Syria dropped
by all metrics compared to the last several months, returning to a level
slightly above that of July 2022. This drop in activity mirrors a broader lull
in ISIS activity globally in January.





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ISIS Redux: The Central Syria Insurgency In January 2023



Read ISIS Redux: The Central Syria Insurgency In January 2023 by clicking here
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ISIS Redux: The Central Syria Insurgency In January 2023

By Gregory Waters



Following is the January 2023 installment of “ISIS Redux: The Central Syria
Insurgency,” a monthly chronicle of attacks by the terrorist group ISIS in
central Syria. A review of developments throughout 2022 and 2021 can be found
here
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andhere
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A full background and analysis of ISIS’s resurgence in Syria, including the
methodology used to collect this data, can also beexplored here
<[link removed]>, here
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, andhere
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.



ISIS militants carried out at least five confirmed attacks in January in
Raqqa, Homs, and Deir Ez Zor governorates. These attacks killed at least seven
pro-Assad regime soldiers and wounded at least two others. Additionally, there
was one high quality* attack in January. ISIS activity in central Syria dropped
by all metrics compared to the last several months, returning to a level
slightly above that of July 2022. This drop in activity mirrors a broader lull
in ISIS activity globally in January. As in August, September, and December,
January’s activity was concentrated in Raqqa and Deir Ez Zor, with a steady but
small number of mine/improvised explosive device (IED) attacks in Homs. Unlike
in past months, ISIS claimed no attacks in central Syria in January.



ISIS attacks remained steady in Homs (2) while dropping sharply in Deir Ez Zor
(2) and Raqqa (1). No attacks were confirmed in south Aleppo and east Hama.



Raqqa



ISIS began its revamped Badia media strategy in August with a string of
southern Raqqa claims. ISIS cells carried out at least 16 attacks in southern
Raqqa between August and December 2022, compared to just seven attacks in the
first seven months of the year. Activity here continued in January, though
apparently at a much-reduced rate (it is important to remember that southern
Raqqa is one of the most difficult places to find accurate information on ISIS
activity). On January 23, some local anti- and pro-regime pages reported an
ISIS small arms attack on a regime position near the Tabqa Airport, allegedly
leaving three soldiers dead. Unlike in December, ISIS did not claim any attacks
in southern Raqqa this month.



Homs and Deir Ez Zor



ISIS activity in Deir Ez Zor surged in December following no confirmed attacks
in November. However, activity dropped again in January. The first attack
occurred on January 8, when a soldier was reported killed in the southwest part
of the province near the Deir Ez Zor-Homs-Iraq border. The second attack came
on January 15, when local pro-regime pages reported an ISIS attack on an army
point in the Kharita area, leaving at least one National Defense Forces (NDF)
soldier dead.



January saw the same low level of ISIS activity in Homs as in December, with
only two IED or mine incidents being reported. On January 16, one soldier was
killed and several wounded by an IED or mine while driving near Sukhnah. On
January 30, a soldier was reported killed somewhere in the province by another
IED or mine.



Regime Operations



No major ground operations were confirmed to have occurred in January.
However, on January 23, pro-regime sources reported a new anti-ISIS air
campaign was to begin from the Tiyas and al-Seen airbases on the western edge
of the Badia, presumably to provide support to patrols and enable to the regime
to quickly target any suspected ISIS hideouts. Additionally, regime sources in
Deir Ez Zor reported the arrival of several thousand Iraqi militiamen under the
command of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) throughout January.
It is not clear if these fighters are intended to use in anti-ISIS patrols, man
checkpoints in Iranian-controlled areas, or simply conduct training exercises
alongside their Syrian counterparts.



Looking Ahead



ISIS activity in central Syria was quite lackluster in January, especially in
comparison to the high tempo December and following a general increase in
activity during the last five months of 2022. Yet, this mirrors a general lull
in self-reported ISIS activity both across Syria and globally. ISIS claimed
only eight attacks in Syria—all in the northeast—and only 13 in Iraq throughout
January. In this context, the five incidents in central Syria actually
constitute a larger proportion of ISIS activity in the region than usual, a
trend in line with the last few months of 2022. All this is to say that, as
usual, it is not clear whether the drop in activity in central Syria is due to
any Badia-specific counter-ISIS pressure from the regime, versus internal ISIS
decision-making or some broader global pressure/influence.



Map of locatable ISIS attacks (highlighted) in January 2023 alongside attacks
in 2022. Note that it does not include one attack conducted somewhere in
eastern Homs. To view an interactive version of this map, please clickhere
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.



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*High quality attacks are defined as attacks behind frontlines, those that
result in seized positions, target regime officers, involve coordinated attacks
on multiple positions, fake checkpoints, ambushes on military convoys, or
attacks on checkpoints that kill at least three soldiers or lead to POWs.



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