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**NOVEMBER 9, 2022**

Kuttner on TAP

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**** The House Democratic Leadership Race

Do Democrats really want their next leader to be compromised and
corporate?

Final results are still coming in; but if current patterns hold, it
appears that Republicans could narrowly win control of the House by
around five to ten seats. That is far from the red wave predicted by
most pundits, who got caught in their own echo chamber. More on that in
a moment.

If Democrats do lose the House, there is likely to be a contest for
several of the leadership posts, most notably minority leader. Even
before the vicious assault on her husband Paul, Speaker Nancy Pelosi was
likely to step down if Republicans gained the House. I suspect that is
even more likely now, though if she wants to stay, she will undoubtedly
have no resistance to doing so.

It is extremely improbable that the other octogenarians who have been in
the top tier of the House leadership for nearly two decades, current
majority leader Steny Hoyer of Maryland, 83, or James Clyburn of South
Carolina, 82, the whip, will run for leader.

This will set off a scramble. The leading candidate is Hakeem Jeffries
of New York, 52, now the caucus chair, fifth-ranking in the hierarchy.
He would be the first Black leader of either party in either chamber.
Ordinarily, that would be a slam dunk.

But Jeffries is a corporate Democrat and a terrible opportunist. In
2021, he threw in with the most conservative Democrats in the caucus,
notably Josh Gottheimer of New Jersey, and created Team Blue PAC with
the express purpose of preventing progressive Democrats from winning
primaries. While the PAC's mission was intended to protect incumbents,
the House Democratic caucus is well to the left of Gottheimer. Jeffries
pretends to position himself as a Progressive Caucus member, but this
episode helped show his true colors.

There is also the fact that Jeffries is another prospective leader from
Brooklyn, along with Senate leader Chuck Schumer. That would give New
York City the leadership of the Democrats in both chambers. And New
York, more than any other state, disastrously underperformed in
yesterday's election. As many as six or seven Democratic seats in the
Empire State could flip. In particular, the Brooklyn Democratic Party
engaged in almost no effort
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to turn out voters, and that is at least partially on Jeffries, a
high-ranking official in the borough.

Who could take on Jeffries? The obvious contender is Katherine Clark of
Massachusetts, a close ally of Speaker Pelosi. It's an open secret
that Pelosi has been grooming Clark for a top leadership position.
Pelosi even created a post for Clark called Assistant Speaker, which
makes Clark the fourth-ranking person in the Senate Democratic
leadership, just ahead of Jeffries.

According to sources very close to Pelosi, however, the assumption has
been that Clark was being groomed to serve first as majority leader,
succeeding Hoyer, and not for the top job. That, however, could change.


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Clark, 59, who has served in Congress only since 2013, has had a rapid
ascent. When Ed Markey moved to the Senate, Clark won the primary for
his old House seat, MA-05, north and west of Boston. Before being tapped
to serve as Assistant Speaker, she was the widely acclaimed DCCC vice
chair for candidate recruitment-in an election cycle when Democrats
made a net gain of 41 House seats.

But it would take a lot of nerve for Clark to challenge Jeffries. Taking
no chances, Jeffries met on September 1 with Jim Clyburn, the
top-ranking African American Democrat in the House, to seek the support
of Clyburn and the Congressional Black Caucus. If Jeffries got that
support, it would make it more awkward for Clark to take him on.
According to Politico
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Clyburn was friendly but made no formal commitments.

If Clyburn does oblige, it would be another case of the South Carolinian
playing the role of kingmaker. In the 2020 primaries, Clyburn's strong
endorsement rescued a faltering Biden campaign and allowed Biden to win
the South Carolina and other primaries, creating a bandwagon effect for
the presidential nomination.

But if the CBC does endorse Jeffries, it would be another unfortunate
case of race trumping progressive principles. With Democrats having had
a better night than expected by defying the conventional counsel to move
to the center, it would be a travesty to elect a corporate centrist as
leader, Black or white.

Another possible contender for leader is Adam Schiff of California.
It's increasingly unlikely that Jeffries will win the job,
uncontested.

Democrats had a better night than most pundits expected, because turnout
held up, because abortion did not fade as a galvanizing issue, because
inflation did not crowd out other issues, and because Biden's low
approval ratings did not taint other Democrats (as the

**Prospect** has been writing
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in rebuttal to the conventional wisdom).

New York deserves special mention. If Republicans do flip six or seven
New York seats, then New York all by itself could account for the loss
of the House.

What happened in New York? Two things. The state political leadership
totally bungled redistricting, which would have produced net gains and
instead produced net losses. Andrew Cuomo's handpicked judges ended up
tossing out the map that would potentially have given Democrats the
House.

Meanwhile, the accidental governor, Kathy Hochul, barely won her own
election, dragging down the whole ticket. Hochul, a feeble governor and
a dismal candidate, has the job only because Cuomo, needing an upstate
woman, put the wholly undistinguished Hochul on the ticket as his
running mate in 2014. She then became governor after Cuomo resigned in
disgrace in 2021.

So the loss of the House could be one more parting gift, via a couple of
bank shots, from the reprehensible Cuomo-with no help from Democratic
machine pols such as Hakeem Jeffries.

~ ROBERT KUTTNER

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Corporate Power Had a Bad Election Night
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Democrats didn't always put corporate concentration issues into the
foreground, but it was in the mix in key races. BY DAVID DAYEN

Undone by Crazy Uncles
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With candidates who personified the Republicans' lunatic rage, the
GOP's midterm hopes were unceremoniously dashed. BY HAROLD MEYERSON

Republicans Have a Disease Called Donald Trump
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Sane parties change their tune when they lose repeatedly. The GOP is not
sane. BY RYAN COOPER

Dems Succeed in Three Virginia Races That Could Predict the Rest of
Election Night
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Democrats did well enough to prevent a red wave. BY JAROD FACUNDO

Donate to TAP's Midterm Tracker Travel Fund
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to send our reporters to cover elections around the country. You can
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Your 100% tax-deductible donation goes directly to the editorial team to
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