Final results are still coming in; but if current patterns hold, it appears that Republicans could narrowly win control of the House by around five to ten seats. That is far from the red wave predicted by most pundits, who got caught in their own echo chamber. More on that in a moment.

If Democrats do lose the House, there is likely to be a contest for several of the leadership posts, most notably minority leader. Even before the vicious assault on her husband Paul, Speaker Nancy Pelosi was likely to step down if Republicans gained the House. I suspect that is even more likely now, though if she wants to stay, she will undoubtedly have no resistance to doing so.

It is extremely improbable that the other octogenarians who have been in the top tier of the House leadership for nearly two decades, current majority leader Steny Hoyer of Maryland, 83, or James Clyburn of South Carolina, 82, the whip, will run for leader.

This will set off a scramble. The leading candidate is Hakeem Jeffries of New York, 52, now the caucus chair, fifth-ranking in the hierarchy. He would be the first Black leader of either party in either chamber. Ordinarily, that would be a slam dunk.

But Jeffries is a corporate Democrat and a terrible opportunist. In 2021, he threw in with the most conservative Democrats in the caucus, notably Josh Gottheimer of New Jersey, and created Team Blue PAC with the express purpose of preventing progressive Democrats from winning primaries. While the PAC’s mission was intended to protect incumbents, the House Democratic caucus is well to the left of Gottheimer. Jeffries pretends to position himself as a Progressive Caucus member, but this episode helped show his true colors.

There is also the fact that Jeffries is another prospective leader from Brooklyn, along with Senate leader Chuck Schumer. That would give New York City the leadership of the Democrats in both chambers. And New York, more than any other state, disastrously underperformed in yesterday’s election. As many as six or seven Democratic seats in the Empire State could flip. In particular, the Brooklyn Democratic Party engaged in almost no effort to turn out voters, and that is at least partially on Jeffries, a high-ranking official in the borough.

Who could take on Jeffries? The obvious contender is Katherine Clark of Massachusetts, a close ally of Speaker Pelosi. It’s an open secret that Pelosi has been grooming Clark for a top leadership position. Pelosi even created a post for Clark called Assistant Speaker, which makes Clark the fourth-ranking person in the Senate Democratic leadership, just ahead of Jeffries.

According to sources very close to Pelosi, however, the assumption has been that Clark was being groomed to serve first as majority leader, succeeding Hoyer, and not for the top job. That, however, could change.

Clark, 59, who has served in Congress only since 2013, has had a rapid ascent. When Ed Markey moved to the Senate, Clark won the primary for his old House seat, MA-05, north and west of Boston. Before being tapped to serve as Assistant Speaker, she was the widely acclaimed DCCC vice chair for candidate recruitment—in an election cycle when Democrats made a net gain of 41 House seats.

But it would take a lot of nerve for Clark to challenge Jeffries. Taking no chances, Jeffries met on September 1 with Jim Clyburn, the top-ranking African American Democrat in the House, to seek the support of Clyburn and the Congressional Black Caucus. If Jeffries got that support, it would make it more awkward for Clark to take him on. According to Politico, Clyburn was friendly but made no formal commitments.

If Clyburn does oblige, it would be another case of the South Carolinian playing the role of kingmaker. In the 2020 primaries, Clyburn’s strong endorsement rescued a faltering Biden campaign and allowed Biden to win the South Carolina and other primaries, creating a bandwagon effect for the presidential nomination.

But if the CBC does endorse Jeffries, it would be another unfortunate case of race trumping progressive principles. With Democrats having had a better night than expected by defying the conventional counsel to move to the center, it would be a travesty to elect a corporate centrist as leader, Black or white.

Another possible contender for leader is Adam Schiff of California. It’s increasingly unlikely that Jeffries will win the job, uncontested.

Democrats had a better night than most pundits expected, because turnout held up, because abortion did not fade as a galvanizing issue, because inflation did not crowd out other issues, and because Biden’s low approval ratings did not taint other Democrats (as the Prospect has been writing in rebuttal to the conventional wisdom).

New York deserves special mention. If Republicans do flip six or seven New York seats, then New York all by itself could account for the loss of the House.

What happened in New York? Two things. The state political leadership totally bungled redistricting, which would have produced net gains and instead produced net losses. Andrew Cuomo’s handpicked judges ended up tossing out the map that would potentially have given Democrats the House.

Meanwhile, the accidental governor, Kathy Hochul, barely won her own election, dragging down the whole ticket. Hochul, a feeble governor and a dismal candidate, has the job only because Cuomo, needing an upstate woman, put the wholly undistinguished Hochul on the ticket as his running mate in 2014. She then became governor after Cuomo resigned in disgrace in 2021.

So the loss of the House could be one more parting gift, via a couple of bank shots, from the reprehensible Cuomo—with no help from Democratic machine pols such as Hakeem Jeffries.