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**AUGUST 10, 2022**
Kuttner on TAP
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**** The FBI's Actions and Their Aftermath
We are a step closer to a civil war whose outcome is far from clear.
In recent weeks, we've had much to celebrate: the stunningly
successful January 6th hearings; surprise passage of parts of the Biden
agenda in the Inflation Reduction Act; enactment of the CHIPS Act; and
of course the FBI seizure of Trump documents at Mar-a-Lago.
The FBI action, literally on the anniversary of Richard Nixon's
resignation, makes clear that Merrick Garland, after dithering, is
indeed prepared to prosecute Trump. And there's reason to believe
Democrats can hold the Senate, maybe even pick up seats.
In the darkest days of this year, as Biden's approval ratings slid and
Democrats seemed headed for certain midterm defeat, I've been the
house optimist
. But
now, amid the celebration, I need to play against type. For we could win
the battle to hold Trump accountable, and still lose the larger struggle
to save democracy.
We could end up, paradoxically, ousting Trump from electoral politics
but strengthening the demons he has loosed. Hosing away Trump could
clear the way for a 2024 Republican nominee with Trump's neofascism,
but without the sheer weirdness that undermined his success.
With the FBI actions, the House Republican leadership has redoubled
threats to harass and paralyze the Justice Department. If Republicans
take the House in November, this could be one of numerous inquisitions
by House committees.
Had Hillary Clinton won in 2016, there were plans to subject Clinton
("Lock her up!") to all manner of harassment. When Trump was the
surprise winner, retroactively punishing the Obama administration became
a lower priority than reversing its policies.
However, if Republicans take the House in 2022, and, worse, if they take
the White House in 2024, we become one of those nations where the main
preoccupation of a new government is to criminalize the actions of its
predecessor-in contrast to 250 years of peaceful democratic
transitions.
We are a step closer to civil war, not just in the increased threats of
violence, but a kind of civil war between the branches of government.
Even more striking than the FBI action at Trump's home was the FBI's
seizure of the cellphone of a sitting Republican congressman, Scott
Perry of Pennsylvania, who was personally involved in the attempted
January 6th coup.
In an escalated war between the branches of government, the referee is
the third branch. But we can hardly count on today's courts to protect
the Biden administration from personal inquisitions, or to shield the
Justice Department from House efforts to paralyze it.
This bleak future is not inevitable. All the recent gains for democracy
and good policy were long shots. The overarching victory that we need to
save and strengthen democracy-holding the House in November-looks
more possible than it did a month ago but is still the longest shot of
all.
~ ROBERT KUTTNER
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