In recent weeks, we’ve had much to celebrate: the stunningly successful January 6th hearings; surprise passage of parts of the Biden agenda in the Inflation Reduction Act; enactment of the CHIPS Act; and of course the FBI seizure of Trump documents at Mar-a-Lago.

The FBI action, literally on the anniversary of Richard Nixon’s resignation, makes clear that Merrick Garland, after dithering, is indeed prepared to prosecute Trump. And there’s reason to believe Democrats can hold the Senate, maybe even pick up seats.

In the darkest days of this year, as Biden’s approval ratings slid and Democrats seemed headed for certain midterm defeat, I’ve been the house optimist. But now, amid the celebration, I need to play against type. For we could win the battle to hold Trump accountable, and still lose the larger struggle to save democracy.

We could end up, paradoxically, ousting Trump from electoral politics but strengthening the demons he has loosed. Hosing away Trump could clear the way for a 2024 Republican nominee with Trump’s neofascism, but without the sheer weirdness that undermined his success.

With the FBI actions, the House Republican leadership has redoubled threats to harass and paralyze the Justice Department. If Republicans take the House in November, this could be one of numerous inquisitions by House committees.

Had Hillary Clinton won in 2016, there were plans to subject Clinton ("Lock her up!") to all manner of harassment. When Trump was the surprise winner, retroactively punishing the Obama administration became a lower priority than reversing its policies.

However, if Republicans take the House in 2022, and, worse, if they take the White House in 2024, we become one of those nations where the main preoccupation of a new government is to criminalize the actions of its predecessor—in contrast to 250 years of peaceful democratic transitions.

We are a step closer to civil war, not just in the increased threats of violence, but a kind of civil war between the branches of government. Even more striking than the FBI action at Trump’s home was the FBI’s seizure of the cellphone of a sitting Republican congressman, Scott Perry of Pennsylvania, who was personally involved in the attempted January 6th coup.

In an escalated war between the branches of government, the referee is the third branch. But we can hardly count on today’s courts to protect the Biden administration from personal inquisitions, or to shield the Justice Department from House efforts to paralyze it.

This bleak future is not inevitable. All the recent gains for democracy and good policy were long shots. The overarching victory that we need to save and strengthen democracy—holding the House in November—looks more possible than it did a month ago but is still the longest shot of all.