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Unsanitized: The COVID-19 Report for Jan. 6, 2021

Time for $2,000 Checks

Democrats need to keep the follow-through as simple as the successful
campaign in Georgia

 

Joe Biden and the Georgia senators-elect made $2,000 checks the linchpin
of the campaign. Now they have to deliver. (Carolyn Kaster/AP Photo)

First Response

A week after the presidential election, I wrote a piece entitled "Hope
Lives in Georgia
,"
about how Democratic victory in the Senate runoffs-and subsequent
control of the Senate-was not that far-fetched. I talked about how
Trump being off the ballot could give Republicans a turnout problem,
compared to a fired-up liberal electorate with control of Washington in
their sites. I talked about how Rev. Raphael Warnock, former board chair
of the New Georgia Project, had ties to the Black organizers that had
been working the state for a decade, and how Jon Ossoff made a good
complement, with his strength in the rapidly changing metro Atlanta
suburbs. I noted how it would be effectively one race with little
drop-off between candidates. And I wrote how Warnock and Ossoff could
run on something tangible-specifically, better benefits from a
coronavirus relief bill, including survival checks for most Americans.

I'm happy to say that my armchair analysis worked out, as it looks
like Warnock and Ossoff both will head to the Senate

(right now Ossoff's race is within range of a recount, but he'll
likely add to that lead and push past that threshold). But I didn't
see coming the real triggering force for the election's endgame:
Donald Trump ruining his party's chances, just after they agreed to a
relief bill, by demanding that the checks be increased to $2,000.

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Ossoff and Warnock both ran on direct payments for months, and they
leaped on Trump's support for bigger checks, especially as they got
bogged down in Mitch McConnell's Senate. It finally gave specifics to
a Democratic campaign message: vote for X and we'll give you Y. For
all the establishment cringing at populism, it's, well, popular. And a
simple message, repeatedly delivered, works.

By the end, Joe Biden was promising $2,000 checks
with a
Georgia victory. The Senate had to stay in session for an extra week
,
with Bernie Sanders repeatedly highlighting the issue. The concept of
votes for checks
,
however off-putting to centrists who'd rather run on "opportunity"
and "fairness" and "belief in science," was fully ingrained in
the electorate. And it worked.

Now it's time to deliver. The question is not if, but how. As I noted
on Monday
,
37 of the 44 Republicans who voted for $2,000 checks in the House are
still there in this new Congress. Senators in both parties stated
confidently that 60 votes were available for checks. So you probably
don't need to do anything special other than put the bill on the floor
for it to pass.

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At the same time, $2,000 checks are an enticing measure to draw votes,
and the COVID crisis demands additional relief. In particular, state and
local governments are still sitting with next to nothing; while
there's some money for state and local functions like education and
health care and transportation in the recent relief package, most of it
will go toward unexpected COVID-related costs and not operations. And
while budgets don't look as bad as feared at the beginning of the
crisis, there's still a serious shortfall

that could use some plugging.

Most important, the limp vaccine rollout

demands more resources. There was $8 billion for distribution and $20
billion for procurement in the last bill, but President-elect Biden's
team has said that's not enough. You could see a package of checks,
state and local aid, and vaccine money. Any bill with checks in it will
be known as a checks bill anyway, so you could stuff a couple other
measures into it and get the relief needed.

There's a danger in that, however. First, adding something with strong
Republican opposition like state fiscal aid probably ends the
possibility of getting 60 Senate votes. You could go the budget
reconciliation route, which requires only 50 votes; all of the above
items are about spending, and if you wanted to get ambitious you could
add tax fairness measures to "pay" for it in the out years. You
could probably get the whole Senate caucus to sign off on that.

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But I think it's probably a bad idea. First of all, there are going to
be limited reconciliation bullets, three to be exact: one for budget
years 2021, 2022, and 2023. Blowing one on checks when that can pass
with regular order seems pointless. It may seem popular enough to drag
other measures along, but I think vaccinating the country and ending the
daily 9/11-sized carnage can serve in that capacity.

Most important, this was a campaign promise, from a party that has a
trust problem with the electorate. An early, definitive win on an issue
that polls 80-20 and splits the opponent is highly desirable. It's not
time to get cute. Simple messaging won the Senate, and simple messaging
will build support in the country for Democrats. Just pass the checks.

Importantly, nothing can be done until Chuck Schumer gains the votes to
become Majority Leader, and because he'll rely on Kamala Harris to
become President of the Senate, that means January 20 (maybe later as we
wait for the Georgia elections to be certified; hopefully Ossoff breaks
out of recount territory). There's time to devise a quick-strike
strategy. I'd argue that the simplest one is the best.

We Can't Do This Without You

About Those Checks

Reports bubbled up yesterday about checks mistakenly sent to defunct
bank accounts

set up by their tax preparer. Amazingly, this also happened the last
time; I reported on it in April
.
Tax preparers like H&R Block use a process called "refund anticipation
checks," setting up a temporary bank account

with an affiliate, and then distributing refunds from that account,
minus preparation fees. About 21 million tax returns were financed this
way, and back in April the IRS blindly supplied an unknown number of
payments to these closed or defunct accounts. And then they didn't fix
it, they did it again! "It is disappointing that the IRS did not fix
this problem, which it has known about for months," said Lauren
Saunders of the National Consumer Law Center, in a statement.

Fortunately the tax preparers were ready for the mistake. I've heard
from people who had this problem that H&R Block moved quickly to explain
the problem and forward the check to the recipient. For those caught up
in more red tape, they can apply for a "Recovery Rebate Credit
" on their 2020
tax return in a matter of weeks. But as Saunders notes, "People who
need money now may have to wait months until they can file a tax return
and get their refund."

Meanwhile, while most payments are going out correctly
,
others are getting their money mailed to them on prepaid debit cards.
These cards were not clearly marked the first time around and many
people trashed them. They also had unnecessary fees attached to them

(this is supposed to be emergency money) and a forced arbitration clause

for disputes. Rep. Cindy Axne (D-IA) led a letter to the IRS

seeking more information about these cards.  

Number of Americans Vaccinated

5.05 million
.
I realized my language should be more precise, as it's a two-dose
treatment, at least for now. We're still around 30 percent of
allocated shots being administered, which isn't good enough.

Today I Learned

* I was on Background Briefing with Ian Masters on KPFK in Los Angeles
yesterday talking about the vaccine rollout. Listen here
.
(Soundcloud)

* The ADP employment report says that the private sector lost 123,000
jobs

in December. We'll get the Labor Department's report on Friday.
(ADP)

* North Carolina's Democratic governor is calling out the National
Guard

to distribute vaccine shots. (Durham Herald Sun)

* An interesting proposal

from former Congressman Marty Meehan to build a "Vaccination Corps."
(Boston Globe)

* Rep. Kevin Brady (R-TX) is the second member of Congress to contract
COVID

after receiving the vaccine, which is completely normal because it takes
time to work. (Axios)

* Nebraska's governor denies vaccine to undocumented immigrants

working in meatpacking plants. Um, they can infect others! (Lincoln
Journal-Star)

* My city of Los Angeles is out of oxygen and turning away patients
.
(Washington Post)

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