Preview

A week after the presidential election, I wrote a piece entitled “Hope Lives in Georgia,” about how Democratic victory in the Senate runoffs—and subsequent control of the Senate—was not that far-fetched. I talked about how Trump being off the ballot could give Republicans a turnout problem, compared to a fired-up liberal electorate with control of Washington in their sites. I talked about how Rev. Raphael Warnock, former board chair of the New Georgia Project, had ties to the Black organizers that had been working the state for a decade, and how Jon Ossoff made a good complement, with his strength in the rapidly changing metro Atlanta suburbs. I noted how it would be effectively one race with little drop-off between candidates. And I wrote how Warnock and Ossoff could run on something tangible—specifically, better benefits from a coronavirus relief bill, including survival checks for most Americans.

I’m happy to say that my armchair analysis worked out, as it looks like Warnock and Ossoff both will head to the Senate (right now Ossoff’s race is within range of a recount, but he’ll likely add to that lead and push past that threshold). But I didn’t see coming the real triggering force for the election’s endgame: Donald Trump ruining his party’s chances, just after they agreed to a relief bill, by demanding that the checks be increased to $2,000.

Ossoff and Warnock both ran on direct payments for months, and they leaped on Trump’s support for bigger checks, especially as they got bogged down in Mitch McConnell’s Senate. It finally gave specifics to a Democratic campaign message: vote for X and we’ll give you Y. For all the establishment cringing at populism, it’s, well, popular. And a simple message, repeatedly delivered, works.

By the end, Joe Biden was promising $2,000 checks with a Georgia victory. The Senate had to stay in session for an extra week, with Bernie Sanders repeatedly highlighting the issue. The concept of votes for checks, however off-putting to centrists who’d rather run on “opportunity” and “fairness” and “belief in science,” was fully ingrained in the electorate. And it worked.

Now it’s time to deliver. The question is not if, but how. As I noted on Monday, 37 of the 44 Republicans who voted for $2,000 checks in the House are still there in this new Congress. Senators in both parties stated confidently that 60 votes were available for checks. So you probably don’t need to do anything special other than put the bill on the floor for it to pass.

At the same time, $2,000 checks are an enticing measure to draw votes, and the COVID crisis demands additional relief. In particular, state and local governments are still sitting with next to nothing; while there’s some money for state and local functions like education and health care and transportation in the recent relief package, most of it will go toward unexpected COVID-related costs and not operations. And while budgets don’t look as bad as feared at the beginning of the crisis, there’s still a serious shortfall that could use some plugging.

Most important, the limp vaccine rollout demands more resources. There was $8 billion for distribution and $20 billion for procurement in the last bill, but President-elect Biden’s team has said that’s not enough. You could see a package of checks, state and local aid, and vaccine money. Any bill with checks in it will be known as a checks bill anyway, so you could stuff a couple other measures into it and get the relief needed.

There’s a danger in that, however. First, adding something with strong Republican opposition like state fiscal aid probably ends the possibility of getting 60 Senate votes. You could go the budget reconciliation route, which requires only 50 votes; all of the above items are about spending, and if you wanted to get ambitious you could add tax fairness measures to “pay” for it in the out years. You could probably get the whole Senate caucus to sign off on that.

But I think it’s probably a bad idea. First of all, there are going to be limited reconciliation bullets, three to be exact: one for budget years 2021, 2022, and 2023. Blowing one on checks when that can pass with regular order seems pointless. It may seem popular enough to drag other measures along, but I think vaccinating the country and ending the daily 9/11-sized carnage can serve in that capacity.

Most important, this was a campaign promise, from a party that has a trust problem with the electorate. An early, definitive win on an issue that polls 80-20 and splits the opponent is highly desirable. It’s not time to get cute. Simple messaging won the Senate, and simple messaging will build support in the country for Democrats. Just pass the checks.

Importantly, nothing can be done until Chuck Schumer gains the votes to become Majority Leader, and because he’ll rely on Kamala Harris to become President of the Senate, that means January 20 (maybe later as we wait for the Georgia elections to be certified; hopefully Ossoff breaks out of recount territory). There’s time to devise a quick-strike strategy. I’d argue that the simplest one is the best.

Reports bubbled up yesterday about checks mistakenly sent to defunct bank accounts set up by their tax preparer. Amazingly, this also happened the last time; I reported on it in April. Tax preparers like H&R Block use a process called “refund anticipation checks,” setting up a temporary bank account with an affiliate, and then distributing refunds from that account, minus preparation fees. About 21 million tax returns were financed this way, and back in April the IRS blindly supplied an unknown number of payments to these closed or defunct accounts. And then they didn’t fix it, they did it again! “It is disappointing that the IRS did not fix this problem, which it has known about for months,” said Lauren Saunders of the National Consumer Law Center, in a statement.

Fortunately the tax preparers were ready for the mistake. I’ve heard from people who had this problem that H&R Block moved quickly to explain the problem and forward the check to the recipient. For those caught up in more red tape, they can apply for a “Recovery Rebate Credit” on their 2020 tax return in a matter of weeks. But as Saunders notes, “People who need money now may have to wait months until they can file a tax return and get their refund.”

Meanwhile, while most payments are going out correctly, others are getting their money mailed to them on prepaid debit cards. These cards were not clearly marked the first time around and many people trashed them. They also had unnecessary fees attached to them (this is supposed to be emergency money) and a forced arbitration clause for disputes. Rep. Cindy Axne (D-IA) led a letter to the IRS seeking more information about these cards.

I was on Background Briefing with Ian Masters on KPFK in Los Angeles yesterday talking about the vaccine rollout. Listen here. (Soundcloud)
The ADP employment report says that the private sector lost 123,000 jobs in December. We’ll get the Labor Department’s report on Friday. (ADP)
North Carolina’s Democratic governor is calling out the National Guard to distribute vaccine shots. (Durham Herald Sun)
An interesting proposal from former Congressman Marty Meehan to build a “Vaccination Corps.” (Boston Globe)
Rep. Kevin Brady (R-TX) is the second member of Congress to contract COVID after receiving the vaccine, which is completely normal because it takes time to work. (Axios)
Nebraska’s governor denies vaccine to undocumented immigrants working in meatpacking plants. Um, they can infect others! (Lincoln Journal-Star)
My city of Los Angeles is out of oxygen and turning away patients. (Washington Post)