In every campaign I’ve ever worked, one factor is always constant: The
candidate who gets the most votes… wins. Getting there, however, isn’t so.....

MEMO

TO:
FROM:
SUBJECT:

Republican Influencers
Steve Munisteri, Senior Advisor 
Texas GOP Voter Registration Report


In every campaign I’ve ever worked, one factor is always constant: The
candidate who gets the most votes… wins.


Getting there, however, isn’t so simple. When Senator Cornyn was reelected in
2014, voter turnout was 4.8 million. In Senator Cruz’s race last cycle, turnout
was 8.3 million.This year, we’re projecting more than 11 million Texans will
vote.


In easy math, that means 5,500,001 voters must choose Senator Cornyn. There’s
no question this is a huge undertaking, exacerbated by a pandemic that has
turned traditional campaigning on its head.  


Joe Biden sees Texas’ 38 electoral votes as the prize that will put him over
the top, and put Democrats in the driver’s seat in the Electoral College for a
generation to come. Nancy Pelosi, who called Texas “ground zero” for 2020, sees
a chance to defeat more Republican House members in Texas to solidify her
Speakership. And the national Democrats who came into Texas during Beto-mania
never left.

 

Texas is our nation’s conservative firewall. We can’t take anything for
granted, and there’s work to be done.


For more than a year, Texas Republicans have worked in highly-coordinated
lockstep to register voters who have either recently moved to or throughout
Texas; deployed creative virtual strategies for voter education and engagement;
and pushed a unified message to ensure we elect strong Republicans from the
White House to the courthouse. 


You’ve played an important role in making these tools and resources available
and successful, which is why I wanted to provide a more in-depth snapshot of
our current election outlook.


THE RACE FOR VOTER REGISTRATION


Our campaign estimates there are approximately 2.4 million unregistered voters
in Texas. 


This is based on a population census of 19 million adult U.S. citizens in the
state, of which 16.6 million are currently registered to vote. The difference:
roughly 2.4 million currently unregistered voters.


However, Democrats claim “there are 2.5 million for-sure Democrats… and
another 2 to 4 million likely Democrats
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” who are unregistered. This totals 4-6.5 million unregistered voters, which is
either a gross overestimate or a cautionary flag for possible voter corruption.


National Democrats were emboldened by 2018 and committed to putting Texas in
play this cycle. But they’re not the only ones moving aggressively. 


More than a year ago, Team Cornyn, the Republican Party of Texas (RPT) and
other GOP-affiliated groups began voter outreach efforts.Prior to Republican
registration efforts, there were an estimated 1,003,922 reliably or likely
Republican voters who were unregistered or ineligible to vote at their current
address. They have now been contacted by our teams, who offered to mail a voter
registration form to the individual that needs only a signature to be validated
by their local registrar.Nearly 165,000 have completed their registrations
because of these contacts. Another Republican group has registered an
additional 98,625; bringing the total to 263,084. This reduces the pool of
unregistered Republicans to 741,163. We recently sent out another round of
texting and are hopeful we will reduce the unregistered pool even further. 


We are ensuring multiple contacts are made with these Texans to emphasize the
importance of voting this year.


The latest Secretary of State file we’ve received indicates that out of the
approximately 1.5 million voters who registered since 2018, 656,600 (49%) are
identifiable Republicans. This is compared to 509,200 (38%) who are
identifiable Democrats. The remaining 13% are either swing voters or unknown.
Thus, we’ve achieved to date a 147,400 registered voter advantage over the
Democrats. 


This speaks volumes about grassroots excitement and commitment to vote,
especially when considering Democrats had a contested presidential primary seen
as the final stand before Bernie Sanders dropped out of the race. Ultimately,
this data indicatesDemocrat efforts to gain advantage through a voter
registration volunteer effort have been a failure. Furthermore, we should
expect Republicans to repeat and build upon this voter action in November. 

COORDINATED GOP OUTREACH


Texans for Senator John Cornyn, in conjunction with RPT’s “Texas Victory,” has
hired full-time regional field directors who live and breathe community
engagement. They are diverse and representative of the areas they are serving.
Their efforts are amplified by full-time field organizers -- constantly engaged
with grassroots leaders, women’s groups, college Republicans, and other
conservative organizations. Further expanding our reach are 5,000+ volunteers. 


Additionally, since June 2019, Senator Cornyn has hosted multiple fundraisers
for the Texas Federation for Republican Women (TFRW) and helped sign up 6,790
new members. RPT has provided $72,000 in grants to TFRW, $120,000 to the Texas
Republican Chairman's Association, as well as funding for the Young Republican
Federation in order to fortify these GOP auxiliaries in their efforts to
educate and engage.


In order to assist down-ballot candidates, Team Cornyn has prioritized and
focused in areas in which there are competitive races. We’ve placed special
emphasis on volunteer recruitment, training and planned events in areas with
overlapping competitive districts.


COVID CREATIVITY


When COVID-19 began spreading in Texas, Team Cornyn didn’t miss a beat
bringing voter registration and engagement efforts online. For nearly five
months now, our campaign has held weekly online trainings on a computer program
called “Red Dialer,” teaching thousands of volunteers how to use a computer
program that calls eligible voters and directly mails them a voter registration
card. The training takes only 30 minutes, and volunteers can login and dial out
safely and at their convenience. Together with RPT, we have made more than 3
million voter contacts.


STATE OF THE SENATE RACE


National Democrats have grown optimistic about Texas this cycle, where most
public polling shows Joe Biden competitive against President Trump, in addition
to a handful of critical House battleground races. Republicans shouldn’t scoff
and invite Democrats and their special interest groups to “waste” their money
in Texas’ expensive media markets. That kind of attitude is not helpful in this
political environment. 


A recent PPP poll found our race continues to be tight, showing Cornyn 44 to
Hegar 40 (15% Undecided). Other polls have shown us with a slightly bigger lead.


MJ Hegar’s movement in the polls has emboldened Sen. Schumer, who is
bankrolling her campaign. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
announced it "will make a seven-figure coordinated investment for the general
election in Texas." This is an unprecedented move by the DSCC; the first time
they have made a coordinated investment in a general election in Texas. 


All of this has more to do with how much Chuck Schumer views John Cornyn as a
barrier to his ambition to become Majority Leader, and how little Texans know
about MJ Hegar. 


MJ has a reputation for dodging debates, speaking in circles, and heaping
false criticisms. She sticks to her rehearsed script and does not offer
specific solutions. In fact, she refuses to take positions on several important
issues such as COVID-19 relief, a federal fracking ban, or Austin’s decision to
defund the police (in her own hometown!). She declined to say if she would
support the elimination of the Senate filibuster and left the door open to
packing the Supreme Court with liberal justices. Her secrecy, and the opening
created on the Supreme Court following Justice Ginsburg’s passing, could spell
danger for our values. 


In the absence of policy substance, it’s telling that Texas Democrat leaders
aren’t flocking to support her. Royce West and her other primary opponents
still haven't endorsed her. The Castro brothers haven’t endorsed her. Beto
hasn’t endorsed her. 


In the next three months, our campaign will ensure Texans know the radical
positions she has staked out, such as:

* MJ supports a “public option” in health care as a “stepping stone” toward
Medicare for All, and has called single-payer healthcare “the future of our
healthcare system.” 

* MJ supports a carbon tax and cap-and-trade, which would decimate our energy
industry; kill jobs for hundreds of thousands of Texans; and increase energy
costs for Texas households. 

* She does not believe schools, non-profits, hospitals or other businesses
should be protected from frivolous lawsuits in the wake of COVID-19. 
These are damning points, but that’s not our only storyline. 


Senator Cornyn’s leadership posts in Washington have put Texas at the front of
the line for federal response and assistance when it mattered most. He is not
only one of the most conservative Senators, but also among the most bipartisan
and successful in passing legislation. As Texans begin to think about who
they’ll vote for in November, we want to make sure they know how Senator Cornyn
has delivered on:

* More than $20 billion in COVID relief for Texas hospitals and first
responders; schools and universities; small businesses; local governments;
airports and infrastructure and more.

* Sponsoring and passing the Justice for Victims of Trafficking Act –
cracking down on human trafficking and providing care and justice to survivors,
especially children, of trafficking 

* Sponsoring and passing the Fix NICS Act – a bipartisan effort supporting
domestic violence and law enforcement groups that enhances compliance and
ensures accuracy of existing background check systems for firearm purchases

* Passing the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act – helping families and businesses
keep more of what they earn

* Authoring the Affordable Prescriptions for Patients Act – lowering the cost
of prescription drugs by preventing pharmaceutical companies from gaming the
patent system

* Leading the charge to confirm conservative judges across the nation – 190
nationally, 21 in Texas – plus two Supreme Court Justices!
As you’ve seen, we are taking nothing for granted and are charging hard toward
November 3. Ours is an effort that is inclusive, positive, optimistic,
forward-looking… the kind of leadership and message that will help Republicans
win up-and-down the ballot this year. 


On to victory!

 

Steve Munisteri

Senior Advisor 







Paid for by Texans for Senator John Cornyn




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