MEMO

In every campaign I’ve ever worked, one factor is always constant: The candidate who gets the most votes… wins.

Getting there, however, isn’t so simple. When Senator Cornyn was reelected in 2014, voter turnout was 4.8 million. In Senator Cruz’s race last cycle, turnout was 8.3 million. This year, we’re projecting more than 11 million Texans will vote.

In easy math, that means 5,500,001 voters must choose Senator Cornyn. There’s no question this is a huge undertaking, exacerbated by a pandemic that has turned traditional campaigning on its head.  

Joe Biden sees Texas’ 38 electoral votes as the prize that will put him over the top, and put Democrats in the driver’s seat in the Electoral College for a generation to come. Nancy Pelosi, who called Texas “ground zero” for 2020, sees a chance to defeat more Republican House members in Texas to solidify her Speakership. And the national Democrats who came into Texas during Beto-mania never left.

 

Texas is our nation’s conservative firewall. We can’t take anything for granted, and there’s work to be done.

For more than a year, Texas Republicans have worked in highly-coordinated lockstep to register voters who have either recently moved to or throughout Texas; deployed creative virtual strategies for voter education and engagement; and pushed a unified message to ensure we elect strong Republicans from the White House to the courthouse. 

You’ve played an important role in making these tools and resources available and successful, which is why I wanted to provide a more in-depth snapshot of our current election outlook.

THE RACE FOR VOTER REGISTRATION

Our campaign estimates there are approximately 2.4 million unregistered voters in Texas. 

This is based on a population census of 19 million adult U.S. citizens in the state, of which 16.6 million are currently registered to vote. The difference: roughly 2.4 million currently unregistered voters.

However, Democrats claim “there are 2.5 million for-sure Democrats… and another 2 to 4 million likely Democrats” who are unregistered. This totals 4-6.5 million unregistered voters, which is either a gross overestimate or a cautionary flag for possible voter corruption.

National Democrats were emboldened by 2018 and committed to putting Texas in play this cycle. But they’re not the only ones moving aggressively. 

More than a year ago, Team Cornyn, the Republican Party of Texas (RPT) and other GOP-affiliated groups began voter outreach efforts. Prior to Republican registration efforts, there were an estimated 1,003,922 reliably or likely Republican voters who were unregistered or ineligible to vote at their current address. They have now been contacted by our teams, who offered to mail a voter registration form to the individual that needs only a signature to be validated by their local registrar. Nearly 165,000 have completed their registrations because of these contacts. Another Republican group has registered an additional 98,625; bringing the total to 263,084. This reduces the pool of unregistered Republicans to 741,163. We recently sent out another round of texting and are hopeful we will reduce the unregistered pool even further. 

We are ensuring multiple contacts are made with these Texans to emphasize the importance of voting this year.

The latest Secretary of State file we’ve received indicates that out of the approximately 1.5 million voters who registered since 2018, 656,600 (49%) are identifiable Republicans. This is compared to 509,200 (38%) who are identifiable Democrats. The remaining 13% are either swing voters or unknown. Thus, we’ve achieved to date a 147,400 registered voter advantage over the Democrats. 

This speaks volumes about grassroots excitement and commitment to vote, especially when considering Democrats had a contested presidential primary seen as the final stand before Bernie Sanders dropped out of the race. Ultimately, this data indicates Democrat efforts to gain advantage through a voter registration volunteer effort have been a failure. Furthermore, we should expect Republicans to repeat and build upon this voter action in November. 

COORDINATED GOP OUTREACH

Texans for Senator John Cornyn, in conjunction with RPT’s “Texas Victory,” has hired full-time regional field directors who live and breathe community engagement. They are diverse and representative of the areas they are serving. Their efforts are amplified by full-time field organizers -- constantly engaged with grassroots leaders, women’s groups, college Republicans, and other conservative organizations. Further expanding our reach are 5,000+ volunteers. 

Additionally, since June 2019, Senator Cornyn has hosted multiple fundraisers for the Texas Federation for Republican Women (TFRW) and helped sign up 6,790 new members. RPT has provided $72,000 in grants to TFRW, $120,000 to the Texas Republican Chairman's Association, as well as funding for the Young Republican Federation in order to fortify these GOP auxiliaries in their efforts to educate and engage.

In order to assist down-ballot candidates, Team Cornyn has prioritized and focused in areas in which there are competitive races. We’ve placed special emphasis on volunteer recruitment, training and planned events in areas with overlapping competitive districts.

COVID CREATIVITY

When COVID-19 began spreading in Texas, Team Cornyn didn’t miss a beat bringing voter registration and engagement efforts online. For nearly five months now, our campaign has held weekly online trainings on a computer program called “Red Dialer,” teaching thousands of volunteers how to use a computer program that calls eligible voters and directly mails them a voter registration card. The training takes only 30 minutes, and volunteers can login and dial out safely and at their convenience. Together with RPT, we have made more than 3 million voter contacts.

STATE OF THE SENATE RACE

National Democrats have grown optimistic about Texas this cycle, where most public polling shows Joe Biden competitive against President Trump, in addition to a handful of critical House battleground races. Republicans shouldn’t scoff and invite Democrats and their special interest groups to “waste” their money in Texas’ expensive media markets. That kind of attitude is not helpful in this political environment. 

A recent PPP poll found our race continues to be tight, showing Cornyn 44 to Hegar 40 (15% Undecided). Other polls have shown us with a slightly bigger lead.

MJ Hegar’s movement in the polls has emboldened Sen. Schumer, who is bankrolling her campaign. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced it "will make a seven-figure coordinated investment for the general election in Texas." This is an unprecedented move by the DSCC; the first time they have made a coordinated investment in a general election in Texas. 

All of this has more to do with how much Chuck Schumer views John Cornyn as a barrier to his ambition to become Majority Leader, and how little Texans know about MJ Hegar. 

MJ has a reputation for dodging debates, speaking in circles, and heaping false criticisms. She sticks to her rehearsed script and does not offer specific solutions. In fact, she refuses to take positions on several important issues such as COVID-19 relief, a federal fracking ban, or Austin’s decision to defund the police (in her own hometown!). She declined to say if she would support the elimination of the Senate filibuster and left the door open to packing the Supreme Court with liberal justices. Her secrecy, and the opening created on the Supreme Court following Justice Ginsburg’s passing, could spell danger for our values. 

In the absence of policy substance, it’s telling that Texas Democrat leaders aren’t flocking to support her. Royce West and her other primary opponents still haven't endorsed her. The Castro brothers haven’t endorsed her. Beto hasn’t endorsed her. 

In the next three months, our campaign will ensure Texans know the radical positions she has staked out, such as:

• MJ supports a “public option” in health care as a “stepping stone” toward Medicare for All, and has called single-payer healthcare “the future of our healthcare system.” 
  
• MJ supports a carbon tax and cap-and-trade, which would decimate our energy industry; kill jobs for hundreds of thousands of Texans; and increase energy costs for Texas households. 
  
• She does not believe schools, non-profits, hospitals or other businesses should be protected from frivolous lawsuits in the wake of COVID-19. 

These are damning points, but that’s not our only storyline. 

Senator Cornyn’s leadership posts in Washington have put Texas at the front of the line for federal response and assistance when it mattered most. He is not only one of the most conservative Senators, but also among the most bipartisan and successful in passing legislation. As Texans begin to think about who they’ll vote for in November, we want to make sure they know how Senator Cornyn has delivered on:

• More than $20 billion in COVID relief for Texas hospitals and first responders; schools and universities; small businesses; local governments; airports and infrastructure and more.
  
• Sponsoring and passing the Justice for Victims of Trafficking Act – cracking down on human trafficking and providing care and justice to survivors, especially children, of trafficking 
  
• Sponsoring and passing the Fix NICS Act – a bipartisan effort supporting domestic violence and law enforcement groups that enhances compliance and ensures accuracy of existing background check systems for firearm purchases
  
• Passing the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act – helping families and businesses keep more of what they earn
  
• Authoring the Affordable Prescriptions for Patients Act – lowering the cost of prescription drugs by preventing pharmaceutical companies from gaming the patent system
  
• Leading the charge to confirm conservative judges across the nation – 190 nationally, 21 in Texas – plus two Supreme Court Justices!

As you’ve seen, we are taking nothing for granted and are charging hard toward November 3. Ours is an effort that is inclusive, positive, optimistic, forward-looking… the kind of leadership and message that will help Republicans win up-and-down the ballot this year. 

On to victory!

 

Steve Munisteri

Senior Advisor 

Paid for by Texans for Senator John Cornyn

This email was sent to [email protected]. With you on board, we’re one step closer to keeping Texas red and fighting to create a future we can all be proud of. On behalf of all of us, we’re glad you’re on board. Now that you’re on Team Cornyn, make sure that you’re keeping up to date with the latest news. The best way to do so? Following our campaign on Facebook and Twitter – that way you’ll always be the first to know when something important comes up. Now, if you’re still reading this, we know you’re really ready to stand up and protect Texas. To aid your fight, we suggest you turn this song up on full volume and do anything you can to help stop the dangerous policies being pedaled by the left to oppose our president and replace our conservative Texas values. Once you’re pumped up and ready to go, head over to our volunteer page and find out exactly how you can help. We’d be proud to have you join us. Thank you for all you do to support John Cornyn for Senate. Don’t want to receive additional updates? Click here to unsubscribe... But we’d rather you stick around. Together, we can protect this great state we know and love, and promote a safe, prosperous, and healthy Texas. Contributions to Texans for Senator John Cornyn, Inc. are not tax deductible.