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[ [link removed] ]Chris Pappas for Senate[ [link removed] ]Chris Pappas for Senate



Hi. It's
James Carville.

I've been sounding the alarm about New Hampshire for months. I said Chris
Pappas’s race was being ignored. I said the math didn't work without it. I
said John Sununu was a uniquely dangerous opponent.

Now we’ve got just days to go, and the polls are all over the map. One has
Sununu ahead. One has it dead even. One has Pappas up. That tells me one
thing: This race is anyone's game.

I put together an urgent memo to explain what that means. Read it right
now. Then help Chris Pappas win this thing.

[ [link removed] ]If you don't need convincing, rush a $5 donation to Chris
Pappas's campaign immediately.

[ [link removed] ]Donate $5 »

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OCTOBER 2026 CAMPAIGN MEMO ON NH-SEN

FROM: James Carville, Senior Democratic Strategist
TO: Interested Parties

I need to be clear with you about where things stand in the race for New
Hampshire's open Senate seat. This race is a coin flip, and it is going to
stay that way until the very last vote is cast.

The polls are a mixed bag, and that should worry every Democrat.

* The University of New Hampshire's Granite State Poll had John Sununu
ahead of Chris Pappas in August, 45% to 43%.
* And in September, it was a total mixed bag:

* Republicans' own polling for the National Republican Senatorial
Committee had Sununu up by a point, 37% to 36%.
* A co/efficient poll had the race tied at 46% apiece.
* The New York Times/Siena poll had Pappas up 50% to 45%.

* Put those together, and you don't get a frontrunner. You get a race
that could go either way, and Republicans know it.

The GOP's investment in this race keeps growing.

* Some $60 million+ in outside money has already flooded New Hampshire
to boost Sununu and attack Pappas. That's in a state with fewer than
one million registered voters. Voters are getting absolutely hammered
with Republican ads.

* The Senate Leadership Fund has announced $17 million for Sununu.
* A Trump-aligned super PAC has reserved another $10 million in New
Hampshire ads.
* Koch-backed Americans for Prosperity Action has already spent
over $15 million.

* John Sununu is not a back-bench candidate. He has a famous New
Hampshire political name (his father and his brother both served as
governor), he has won a statewide election here before, and he has the
full weight of the Republican donor machine behind him.
* Republicans understand the math perfectly. They don't need to flip
five seats like we do. They just need to flip New Hampshire red and
make Democrats' path to a majority impossible.

In New Hampshire almost nobody has voted yet.

* In states around the country, voters are already casting their
ballots. New Hampshire is different.
* There's no early in-person voting here, and absentee voting requires
an excuse. Roughly nine in ten Granite Staters cast their ballots in
person on Election Day itself.
* New Hampshire also has same-day voter registration. In 2024 nearly
93,000 people registered at the polls on Election Day.
* That means this race is not even close to decided. Nearly every vote
that will decide it is still out there, and every one of them is still
up for grabs. We have to stay vigilant.

New Hampshire has decided control before — and the margins are razor thin.

* In 2016 the New Hampshire Senate race was decided by just 1,017 votes.
* When Democrats chart a path to retaking the Senate majority, New
Hampshire is not optional. If Chris Pappas loses, Democrats need to
flip five seats instead of four. That math does not exist.

Races like this are won in the final weeks.

* I have worked Senate races in every corner of this country. And I can
tell you from hard experience: When a race is this close, it gets
decided by the side that shows up in the final stretch with the
resources to finish strong.
* In New Hampshire the final stretch is everything. When nearly the
whole electorate votes on one day, the last ad they see and the last
door that gets knocked matter more than anywhere else in the country.
* I am telling you right now: Chris Pappas can win this race. But only
if we give him what he needs to compete between now and November 3rd.

Chris Pappas has what it takes to win — but he needs resources right now.

* Pappas has won New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District four times
without a loss. He just won his primary with 65% of the vote. He knows
how to reach voters across the aisle and build a coalition that wins.
* Pappas has outraised Sununu candidate-to-candidate, thanks to support
from hundreds of thousands of individual donors. But that advantage
gets swallowed up fast when $60 million in outside money is hitting
the airwaves.
* In a race that could come down to a few thousand votes, being drowned
out on TV in the final weeks is the ballgame. We are in that moment
right now.

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Listen.
I don't write memos like this for every race, and I don't send urgent
updates unless I'm genuinely worried.

I'm telling you: I'm worried about New Hampshire.

The polls are split. Republicans are spending like crazy. And almost every
vote in this race is still waiting to be cast.

[ [link removed] ]Rush a donation to Chris Pappas immediately. Don't let New Hampshire be
the race we wish we'd done more for when we had the chance.



[ [link removed] ]Donate $5 »



Right now is our time to play ball. Let's elect Chris Pappas and flip the
Senate.

– James Carville









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