OCTOBER 2026 CAMPAIGN MEMO ON NH-SEN

FROM: James Carville, Senior Democratic Strategist
TO: Interested Parties

I need to be clear with you about where things stand in the race for New Hampshire's open Senate seat. This race is a coin flip, and it is going to stay that way until the very last vote is cast.

The polls are a mixed bag, and that should worry every Democrat.

• The University of New Hampshire's Granite State Poll had John Sununu ahead of Chris Pappas in August, 45% to 43%.
• And in September, it was a total mixed bag:
• Republicans' own polling for the National Republican Senatorial Committee had Sununu up by a point, 37% to 36%.
• A co/efficient poll had the race tied at 46% apiece.
• The New York Times/Siena poll had Pappas up 50% to 45%.
• Put those together, and you don't get a frontrunner. You get a race that could go either way, and Republicans know it.

The GOP's investment in this race keeps growing.

• Some $60 million+ in outside money has already flooded New Hampshire to boost Sununu and attack Pappas. That's in a state with fewer than one million registered voters. Voters are getting absolutely hammered with Republican ads.
• The Senate Leadership Fund has announced $17 million for Sununu.
• A Trump-aligned super PAC has reserved another $10 million in New Hampshire ads.
• Koch-backed Americans for Prosperity Action has already spent over $15 million.
• John Sununu is not a back-bench candidate. He has a famous New Hampshire political name (his father and his brother both served as governor), he has won a statewide election here before, and he has the full weight of the Republican donor machine behind him.
• Republicans understand the math perfectly. They don't need to flip five seats like we do. They just need to flip New Hampshire red and make Democrats' path to a majority impossible.

In New Hampshire almost nobody has voted yet.

• In states around the country, voters are already casting their ballots. New Hampshire is different.
• There's no early in-person voting here, and absentee voting requires an excuse. Roughly nine in ten Granite Staters cast their ballots in person on Election Day itself.
• New Hampshire also has same-day voter registration. In 2024 nearly 93,000 people registered at the polls on Election Day.
• That means this race is not even close to decided. Nearly every vote that will decide it is still out there, and every one of them is still up for grabs. We have to stay vigilant.

New Hampshire has decided control before — and the margins are razor thin.

• In 2016 the New Hampshire Senate race was decided by just 1,017 votes.
• When Democrats chart a path to retaking the Senate majority, New Hampshire is not optional. If Chris Pappas loses, Democrats need to flip five seats instead of four. That math does not exist.

Races like this are won in the final weeks.

• I have worked Senate races in every corner of this country. And I can tell you from hard experience: When a race is this close, it gets decided by the side that shows up in the final stretch with the resources to finish strong.
• In New Hampshire the final stretch is everything. When nearly the whole electorate votes on one day, the last ad they see and the last door that gets knocked matter more than anywhere else in the country.
• I am telling you right now: Chris Pappas can win this race. But only if we give him what he needs to compete between now and November 3rd.

Chris Pappas has what it takes to win — but he needs resources right now.

• Pappas has won New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District four times without a loss. He just won his primary with 65% of the vote. He knows how to reach voters across the aisle and build a coalition that wins.
• Pappas has outraised Sununu candidate-to-candidate, thanks to support from hundreds of thousands of individual donors. But that advantage gets swallowed up fast when $60 million in outside money is hitting the airwaves.
• In a race that could come down to a few thousand votes, being drowned out on TV in the final weeks is the ballgame. We are in that moment right now.