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Voters cast ballots during early voting inside the Medina County Board of Elections in Medina, Ohio. Photo by Shannon Stapleton/Reuters

It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy. We think of it as a mini-magazine in your inbox.

THE SENATE MAP, ACCORDING TO KARL ROVE AND DAVID AXELROD

By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])

Correspondent

Two of the chief architects of modern American politics, Karl Rove and David Axelrod, come off like a pair of uncles hanging out on a stoop.

Rove, the reviled and revered hardball strategist behind the George W. Bush years, and Axelrod, the Obama strategist behind Democrats’ authentic-and-tenacious school of thought, sat down with me last week at the Economic Club of Chicago for a nearly hourlong conversation.

We shared a five-minute glimpse of that chat on News Hour last week ([link removed]) , and it’s been lighting up YouTube ever since. But there was much more to the conversation ([link removed]) that I have been eager to share.

Of course, OF COURSE, I asked them to give their takes on the list of competitive Senate races coming up, as laid out by the Cook Political Report ([link removed]) . It was a fascinating kaleidoscope of thoughts.

The Senate races

Alaska

Incumbent: Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan

Rove: Was blunt. “I worry about Alaska.”

Axelrod: Called it a “coin-flip,” pointing out that Democratic candidate Mary Peltola previously came in first with ranked-choice voting. And Axelrod added that a negative article in The New York Times ([link removed]) may have helped her.

Georgia

Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff

Axelrod: Ossoff is the least likely incumbent in a competitive race to lose their seat.

Rove: Did not mention this race.

Iowa

Open GOP seat

Axelrod: This, too, is a coin-flip.

Rove: Republican Ashley Hinson will win.

Kansas

Open GOP seat

Rove: Democrats will come up short in this race. But it is a race.

Maine

Incumbent: Republican Sen. Susan Collins

Rove: Collins will win.

Axelrod: More nuanced. He declared that the seat is in play and will be close. But, he added, Collins is a formidable survivor, and gave this hypothetical scene: “The world is going to end,” he narrated. “It will be a pile of rubble and smoke. And then all of a sudden, two little hands are going to pop up. And a head. And it will be Susan Collins.”

Michigan

Open Democratic seat

Rove: Indicated it is close, concluding, Republican “Mike Rogers has a good shot.”

Axelrod: Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed will win, keeping the seat for the party.

Minnesota

Open Democratic seat

Rove: Is a believer in Republican and first-time candidate Michele Tafoya, whom he met the previous week, but stopped short of saying she will win.

Nebraska

Incumbent: Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts


Rove: “Pete Ricketts is going to win,” he said, alleging that Ricketts’ opponent, independent Dan Osborn is “a phony.” “Why are you talking about Ricketts that way?” joked Axelrod in an immediate retort.

North Carolina

Open GOP seat

They agreed: Democrats will flip this seat being vacated by Sen. Thom Tillis.

Ohio

Incumbent: Republican Sen. Jon Husted

Axelrod: Ohio’s former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown should win. Though, Axelrod he said, he is concerned that Brown could be painted as establishment.

Rove: Another race where he is “worried” for Republicans.

Texas

Open GOP seat

They agreed: Democrat James Talarico would win at that point, in a close race.

Axelrod: Called it another coin-flip, but “Talarico is one of the most talented candidates running this year,” he said, “running against perhaps the worst candidate in the country,” meaning Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Rove: If the election were held now, Talarico would win. But, he added, “the race has tightened a little bit” as voters have been reminded of Talarico’s more controversial statements, including about gender. ([link removed]) To Rove, the question is: “Will Paxton debate? If he doesn’t debate, I think he loses.”

South Carolina

Open GOP seat

Rove: “It’s a hope for Democrats,” he said, “but it’s not real.”

Axelrod: Did not mention South Carolina as he went through the list.

The national debt

This was another opportunity — and, I suspect, an interesting curveball — I could not ignore. I pointed to the current debt level ([link removed]) and steep rise ahead. And I asked, “Why is it that the parties and candidates aren't stepping up on this? Why isn't this a Ross Perot moment?”

They agreed that the problem can’t be ignored.

“Both parties are going to have to grow up,” Rove said first. “We can't simply say, you know, we're not going to deal with it, and the Democrats can't say, you're going to throw Granny off the cliff. The next president, Republican or Democrat, is going to start to find a solution.”

“This is a failing that we have to confront,” Axelrod said. “We're not good at solving problems where the impact is years ahead. I think that the candidate who is willing to go big, you know, in 2028 is going to find an audience.” He then nodded to the political mentality and reality that has stymied progress.

“On the issue of Social Security and Medicare, we live in a time when people are struggling to pay their bills,” Axelrod said. “So to tell them you need to sacrifice for the future is a hard sell. So it's going to take a great leader to sell that notion.”

Want more? For the full conversation, watch here ([link removed]) .

More on politics from our coverage:
* Watch: Karl Rove and David Axelrod give their midterm predictions ([link removed]) .
* One Big Question: What is Trump’s plan to rally voters around the midterms? NPR’s Tamara Keith and Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter discuss ([link removed]) .
* A Closer Look: Who's spending big, and where, in the most expensive election cycle ever. ([link removed])
* Perspectives: Utah Gov. Spencer Cox on his blueprint ([link removed]) for depolarizing a fractured nation.

WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT VOTING BY MAIL THIS YEAR
[link removed]

Watch the clip in the player above.

By Timothy McPhillips

Multiplatform Reporter/Producer, digital

Given key postal changes and legal back-and-forth over President Donald Trump’s attempts to restrict mail-in voting, you may be confused about what to do if you are planning to vote by mail this election.

In short: An official U.S. Postal Service rule on postmarks ([link removed]) is now in effect. This, plus other USPS changes, means it’s a good idea to mail your ballot with time to spare, election workers say.

The Trump administration’s proposed mail voting restrictions are not in play this election; the Supreme Court struck them down. But repeated false claims by Trump around the security of mail-in voting have caused confusion and seem to be denting confidence in this method of voting and the USPS, mostly among his loyal base, according to our latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll. ([link removed])

Here’s a look at what you need to know before mailing in your ballot.

The most important thing you can do right now: Make a plan. Check with your state and local election officials and their websites, said Tammy Patrick of the National Association of Election Administrators.

“If you have questions, contact them, reach out to them,” she said.

THIS WEEK’S TRIVIA QUESTION

By Joshua Barajas

Senior Editor, Digital

“Affordability” has defined this midterm season ([link removed]) . ([link removed])

Voters are grappling with heightened costs at the grocery store and gas station, while seeing costs rise in housing, healthcare and other areas.

Democrats have latched onto the word to help propel their campaigns. President Donald Trump, for his part, batted down these concerns by labeling the term a “made-up” word ([link removed]) or describing these worries as a “con job” ([link removed]) by Democrats.

According to dictionary authorities, “afford” and “affordable” have roots that date back several centuries. The earliest known written use of the noun “affordability,” however, is newer, relatively speaking.

Our question: “Affordability” dates back to which year, according to dictionaries? (Give your best guess.)

Send your answers to [email protected]. (mailto:[email protected]) The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: Which U.S. state leads the nation in steel manufacturing?

The answer: Indiana. ([link removed]) While a handful of states, including Pennsylvania and Texas, have strong connections to the steel industry, it’s Indiana that has remained in the top spot for annual steel production in the U.S., a distinction it’s held for decades. ([link removed])

Congratulations to our winners: John Mullender and Dale Bertelson!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.

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