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THE SENATE MAP, ACCORDING TO KARL ROVE AND DAVID AXELROD
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews
Correspondent
Two of the chief architects of modern American politics, Karl Rove and David Axelrod, come off like a pair of uncles hanging out on a stoop.
Rove, the reviled and revered hardball strategist behind the George W. Bush years, and Axelrod, the Obama strategist behind Democrats’ authentic-and-tenacious school of thought, sat down with me last week at the Economic Club of Chicago for a nearly hourlong conversation.
We shared a five-minute glimpse of that chat on News Hour last week, and it’s been lighting up YouTube ever since. But there was much more to the conversation that I have been eager to share.
Of course, OF COURSE, I asked them to give their takes on the list of competitive Senate races coming up, as laid out by the Cook Political Report. It was a fascinating kaleidoscope of thoughts.
The Senate races
Alaska
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan
Rove: Was blunt. “I worry about Alaska.”
Axelrod: Called it a “coin-flip,” pointing out that Democratic candidate Mary Peltola previously came in first with ranked-choice voting. And Axelrod added that a negative article in The New York Times may have helped her.
Georgia
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff
Axelrod: Ossoff is the least likely incumbent in a competitive race to lose their seat.
Rove: Did not mention this race.
Iowa
Open GOP seat
Axelrod: This, too, is a coin-flip.
Rove: Republican Ashley Hinson will win.
Kansas
Open GOP seat
Rove: Democrats will come up short in this race. But it is a race.
Maine
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Susan Collins
Rove: Collins will win.
Axelrod: More nuanced. He declared that the seat is in play and will be close. But, he added, Collins is a formidable survivor, and gave this hypothetical scene: “The world is going to end,” he narrated. “It will be a pile of rubble and smoke. And then all of a sudden, two little hands are going to pop up. And a head. And it will be Susan Collins.”
Michigan
Open Democratic seat
Rove: Indicated it is close, concluding, Republican “Mike Rogers has a good shot.”
Axelrod: Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed will win, keeping the seat for the party.
Minnesota
Open Democratic seat
Rove: Is a believer in Republican and first-time candidate Michele Tafoya, whom he met the previous week, but stopped short of saying she will win.
Nebraska
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts
Rove: “Pete Ricketts is going to win,” he said, alleging that Ricketts’ opponent, independent Dan Osborn is “a phony.” “Why are you talking about Ricketts that way?” joked Axelrod in an immediate retort.
North Carolina
Open GOP seat
They agreed: Democrats will flip this seat being vacated by Sen. Thom Tillis.
Ohio
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Jon Husted
Axelrod: Ohio’s former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown should win. Though, Axelrod he said, he is concerned that Brown could be painted as establishment.
Rove: Another race where he is “worried” for Republicans.
Texas
Open GOP seat
They agreed: Democrat James Talarico would win at that point, in a close race.
Axelrod: Called it another coin-flip, but “Talarico is one of the most talented candidates running this year,” he said, “running against perhaps the worst candidate in the country,” meaning Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Rove: If the election were held now, Talarico would win. But, he added, “the race has tightened a little bit” as voters have been reminded of Talarico’s more controversial statements, including about gender. To Rove, the question is: “Will Paxton debate? If he doesn’t debate, I think he loses.”
South Carolina
Open GOP seat
Rove: “It’s a hope for Democrats,” he said, “but it’s not real.”
Axelrod: Did not mention South Carolina as he went through the list.
The national debt
This was another opportunity — and, I suspect, an interesting curveball — I could not ignore. I pointed to the current debt level and steep rise ahead. And I asked, “Why is it that the parties and candidates aren't stepping up on this? Why isn't this a Ross Perot moment?”
They agreed that the problem can’t be ignored.
“Both parties are going to have to grow up,” Rove said first. “We can't simply say, you know, we're not going to deal with it, and the Democrats can't say, you're going to throw Granny off the cliff. The next president, Republican or Democrat, is going to start to find a solution.”
“This is a failing that we have to confront,” Axelrod said. “We're not good at solving problems where the impact is years ahead. I think that the candidate who is willing to go big, you know, in 2028 is going to find an audience.” He then nodded to the political mentality and reality that has stymied progress.
“On the issue of Social Security and Medicare, we live in a time when people are struggling to pay their bills,” Axelrod said. “So to tell them you need to sacrifice for the future is a hard sell. So it's going to take a great leader to sell that notion.”
Want more? For the full conversation, watch here.
