I'm going to be honest with you — sending this makes me nervous. We traveled
into the Utah desert to film what we thought was the dying breath of American
energy.


 


<[link removed]> 


Sep 13, 2026



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I'm going to be honest with you — sending this makes me nervous.

We traveled into the Utah desert to film what we thought was the dying breath
of American energy.

<[link removed]>
What our cameras caught on the other side of that site is something we've
been legally discouraged from describing in writing.

Three separate people told us not to publish this footage.

We're publishing it anyway — because what's coming out of that ground could
represent thelargest economic revival this country has seen in a century, and
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finding out.

Click to learn more
<[link removed]>



 



The ECB Just Hiked to 2.5%. The Decision Was Unanimous. President Lagarde
Called It a No-Brainer.
Written by Evan Brooks · September 13, 2026







The Decision

* The European Central Bank raised all three key interest rates by 25 basis
points on September 10, 2026. The deposit facility rate rose to 2.50%, the main
refinancing rate to2.65%, and the marginal lending rate to 2.90%, effective
September 16. The decision was unanimous. ECB PresidentChristine Lagarde
described it as a no-brainer.
* The ECB revised its inflation forecasts upward for 2027 and 2028 — to 2.5%
and2.1% respectively — while holding its 2026 forecast at 3.0%. The 2026
forecast is unchanged from June; the upward revisions to 2027 and 2028 are the
operative signal that the ECB no longer expects the energy shock to be fully
absorbed by next year. Eurozone headline inflation hit3.3% in August, driven by
a14.3% annual rise in energy prices. Core inflation excluding energy was 2.2%.
* This is the ECB's second hike since the US-Iran war began and the shortest
hiking campaign in 15 years if, as most economists expect, it stops here. A
Reuters poll of 65 economists published September 3 found all 65 expected the
September hike — and the majority expected no further move after it. EUR/USD
dipped below1.1600 on the decision and recovered to near 1.1610, as the hike
had been fully priced.
What Lagarde's "No-Brainer" Language Is Actually Communicating
Calling a rate decision a no-brainer is central bank communication, not
casual speech. Lagarde's framing serves a specific purpose: it closes the
debate about whether the September hike was contested inside the Governing
Council and simultaneously signals that the threshold for a further hike is
higher than the threshold that justified this one. A no-brainer move is one
that required no deliberation — which means the next move, by implication, will
require deliberation. That framing is consistent with the Reuters survey
outcome: 65 of 65 economists expected September; almost none expected October
or November. Lagarde reinforced this by stating the council had not debated the
path ahead — a formulation that European Central Bank watchers have
historically read as pushback against market pricing for additional hikes. She
added that markets were doing their job, a phrase the ECB has used when it
wants yield movements to do some of the tightening work without a rate
commitment.
The 2027 inflation revision is the part of the ECB's September decision that
carries more durable information than the rate itself. A central bank that
expected its September hike to solve the inflation problem would not
simultaneously revise 2027 and 2028 forecasts higher. The upward move in the
2027 projection — from2.3% in June to 2.5% in September — reflects the ECB's
own assessment that the energy shock is not resolving on its prior timeline,
that Brent above$107 will feed into services prices through transportation and
input costs, and that second-round wage effects cannot yet be ruled out.
Emeritus Professor Joe Nellis of MHA captured the central paradox precisely: a
central bank cannot reopen a shipping lane or refill a gas storage facility
before winter. More restrictive monetary policy is not an effective response to
short-term, supply-driven inflation — and yet the ECB is moving in exactly that
direction to combat inflation that is becoming more structural.





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Why EUR/USD Fell After a Rate Hike — and What That Price Action Tells You
A rate hike that is fully priced before it arrives does not deliver fresh
yield support in the currency markets, and EUR/USD's immediate dip below1.1600
is the textbook expression of that dynamic. The euro had already appreciated in
the run-up to September 10 as markets priced the hike with near-certainty. Once
the decision confirmed what was already embedded in the forward curve, the
catalyst for further euro strength disappeared — and the pair settled near1.1610
as attention shifted back to the US CPI print and the oil move that were
simultaneously driving global markets. The ECB's own projections for 2027 and
2028, which were revised higher, are the data point that matters more for
EUR/USD over a multi-month horizon than the September 10 decision itself. If
the ECB is projecting2.5% inflation in 2027 — above target, and above its June
estimate — markets will at some point have to price the possibility of another
hike in the first half of 2027. That repricing, when it comes, will be the
EUR/USD driver that the September 10 decision did not provide.
The 2011 Parallel — and Why Lagarde Is Aware of It
The Reuters poll description of this as the ECB's shortest hiking campaign
since 2011 is not coincidental. In 2011, the ECB raised rates twice in response
to sharply rising oil prices — moves that most policymakers now regard as a
policy mistake. The parallel is imperfect: the 2011 rate increases came against
a backdrop of a eurozone sovereign debt crisis and weak underlying growth,
while 2026 eurozone growth, at0.9% per Goldman Sachs's forecast, is not that
fragile. But the structural similarity — hiking in response to an energy shock
rather than demand-driven inflation — is close enough that Lagarde's decision
to frame September as a no-brainer and explicitly avoid discussion of the path
ahead reads as institutional memory of 2011. A central bank that learned from
hiking into a supply shock would design its communication to give itself
maximum optionality to pause. That is precisely what the September 10 language
delivered. The ECB has hiked, preserved its credibility on inflation, and kept
its hands free for October — which is a better outcome than the one the 2011
committee managed.

Sources: CNBC · Euronews · EBC Financial Group · TIO Markets · FXStreet · RTE
· Trading Economics · Reuters · MHA




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