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Nine Point Six Months of Supply, a Median Price of $410,700, and an
Affordability Index of 103.9. By the Supply Measure This Is a Buyer's Market;
by the Affordability Measure It Is Sitting Almost Exactly on the Threshold
Where Buying Stops Working.


US housing data as of early September shows 9.6 months of supply, a median
home price of $410,700, a 30-year mortgage rate that has since risen to 6.76%,
and a housing affordability index of 103.9 — a reading that sits just above the
threshold at which a median-income household can afford a median-priced home.
The rental vacancy rate stands at 7.30% and new home sales at an annualised
607,000 units.


Those figures point in opposite directions, and the tension between them is
the whole story. Months of supply near ten is historically consistent with a
buyer's market — inventory well above the four-to-six-month range usually
described as balanced — which normally implies falling prices and negotiating
leverage. An affordability index barely above 100 says something different:
that the median household has almost exactly enough income to qualify for the
median home and no margin beyond it. Both can be true at once becausethe
binding constraint has moved from price to financing cost. Inventory has
accumulated not because supply expanded dramatically but because demand was
priced out, and at 6.76% a buyer needs substantially more income to carry the
same house than at 6.35% a year ago.Mortgage delinquency stands at 1.86%, low
by historical standards, which indicates that existing owners are not the
source of the stress — the pressure sits entirely with prospective buyers.


For the investor, this configuration explains why housing has stalled rather
than corrected. A market where owners are current on their mortgages and
largely hold rates far below today's has no forced-seller mechanism, so
inventory builds and transactions fall without prices breaking — the standard
pattern when affordability is the constraint rather than credit quality. The
practical implication is that the unlock is a rate move rather than a price
move, and the rate in question is the 10-year Treasury rather than the fed
funds target. Watching months of supply alone will give a misleading read on
this market, because that number can keep climbing while prices hold.The
affordability index crossing decisively below 100 would be the more meaningful
signal, since it is the point at which the median buyer stops qualifying at all.


 

Sources — FRED data via Real Estate Data Live, September 7, 2026 · Freddie
Mac, September 10, 2026


 



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