Nine Point Six Months of Supply, a Median Price of $410,700, and an Affordability Index of 103.9. By the Supply Measure This Is a Buyer's Market; by the Affordability Measure It Is Sitting Almost Exactly on the Threshold Where Buying Stops Working.

US housing data as of early September shows 9.6 months of supply, a median home price of $410,700, a 30-year mortgage rate that has since risen to 6.76%, and a housing affordability index of 103.9 — a reading that sits just above the threshold at which a median-income household can afford a median-priced home. The rental vacancy rate stands at 7.30% and new home sales at an annualised 607,000 units.

Those figures point in opposite directions, and the tension between them is the whole story. Months of supply near ten is historically consistent with a buyer's market — inventory well above the four-to-six-month range usually described as balanced — which normally implies falling prices and negotiating leverage. An affordability index barely above 100 says something different: that the median household has almost exactly enough income to qualify for the median home and no margin beyond it. Both can be true at once because the binding constraint has moved from price to financing cost. Inventory has accumulated not because supply expanded dramatically but because demand was priced out, and at 6.76% a buyer needs substantially more income to carry the same house than at 6.35% a year ago. Mortgage delinquency stands at 1.86%, low by historical standards, which indicates that existing owners are not the source of the stress — the pressure sits entirely with prospective buyers.

For the investor, this configuration explains why housing has stalled rather than corrected. A market where owners are current on their mortgages and largely hold rates far below today's has no forced-seller mechanism, so inventory builds and transactions fall without prices breaking — the standard pattern when affordability is the constraint rather than credit quality. The practical implication is that the unlock is a rate move rather than a price move, and the rate in question is the 10-year Treasury rather than the fed funds target. Watching months of supply alone will give a misleading read on this market, because that number can keep climbing while prices hold. The affordability index crossing decisively below 100 would be the more meaningful signal, since it is the point at which the median buyer stops qualifying at all.

Sources — FRED data via Real Estate Data Live, September 7, 2026 · Freddie Mac, September 10, 2026

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