The most expensive mistake may happen before the check arrives. ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎
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Today's Market Update For You



Goldman Just Pushed the Next Fed Rate Cut to 2027



Written by Andrew Green



 
Quick Take

The Quick Take The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75% on
July 29, the fifth straight meeting without a change. Three regional Fed
presidents dissented in favor of raising rates instead — the first three-way
hawkish dissent since September 2016. Goldman Sachs has pushed its forecast for
the next rate cuts to June and December 2027, giving that scenario only a 30%
probability. July's Consumer Price Index rose 3.4% from a year earlier, still
well above the Fed's 2% target — the reason the three dissenters cited for
wanting a hike.

 

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Body

What Happened
A Fifth Hold, and a Rare Hawkish Split

On July 29, the Federal Open Market Committee — the Federal Reserve's
rate-setting group, known as the FOMC — voted 9-3 to hold the federal funds
rate at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75%. It was the fifth consecutive meeting
without a change, extending a pause that has now run for most of the year.

The notable part of the vote was not the hold itself but the dissent. Three
regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents — Beth Hammack of Cleveland, Neel
Kashkari of Minneapolis and Lorie Logan of Dallas — voted against holding
rates, but not in the direction dissents usually take. All three wanted to
raise the target range by a quarter of a percentage point instead of leaving it
unchanged. A three-person dissent in favor of a hike had not happened since
September 2016, according to the Fed's own meeting records.

The dissenters' stated reasoning centered on inflation. The Consumer Price
Index rose 3.4% year over year in July, according to the Bureau of Labor
Statistics — still well above the Fed's 2% target, and part of a stretch of
above-target readings that has now run for more than five years. Core
inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% for the
month and 2.5% over the year; shelter costs alone, up 0.1% in July, accounted
for roughly two-thirds of the monthly increase in the broader index. For three
sitting regional presidents, that combination was reason enough to argue for
tightening policy further rather than waiting for more data.

Why It Matters
Wall Street Moves Its Own Timeline

The hawkish dissent landed alongside a separate signal, this one from Wall
Street rather than the Fed itself. Goldman Sachs has pushed back its forecast
for the next Federal Reserve rate cuts to June and December 2027 — well beyond
the 2026 timeline many investors were pricing in earlier this year. The bank
now assigns only a 30% probability to that two-cut scenario, down from 40%
previously, and has doubled its own estimate of the odds of a rate hike to 20%,
up from 10%.

Goldman Sachs chief U.S. economist David Mericle said a rate hike remains
unlikely because inflation appears "less likely to become self-sustaining" than
it did earlier this year — even as the bank raised its own odds of that very
outcome.
That combination — a hawkish dissent inside the Fed alongside a major bank
pushing its own cut forecast out by roughly a year — describes a policy path
with a genuinely wide range of outcomes, not a settled one. Separately,
prediction markets have shown elevated odds that 2026 ends with no rate cuts at
all, a read that lines up with Goldman's own repositioning even though the bank
stops short of naming a hike its base case. The disagreement is not just about
direction; it is about how much weight to put on five-plus years of
above-target inflation versus the risk of slowing the economy further than
necessary.

By The Numbers
What HappenedWhat It Means
July 29 FOMC Vote9-3 to hold rates at 3.50%-3.75%; three presidents dissented
in favor of a hike.
Dissenting PresidentsBeth Hammack (Cleveland), Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis),
Lorie Logan (Dallas) — the first three-way hawkish dissent since 2016.
Goldman's Revised ForecastNext rate cuts pushed to June and December 2027,
with only 30% odds assigned to that scenario.
July CPIUp 3.4% year over year, still well above the Fed's 2% target.

The federal funds rate has held at the same 3.75% upper bound for five
straight FOMC meetings this year.

Reader Question
Three Federal Reserve presidents just went on record wanting to raise interest
rates rather than hold them, arguing that inflation running above 3% for this
long is a bigger risk than slowing the economy further. Do you think the Fed
should be raising rates to bring inflation down faster, or holding steady to
avoid tipping the economy into a slowdown?

Hit reply — one line is enough.

What to Watch Next
The Next Two Data Points That Matter

The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for Sept. 15-16, and it is one of four
meetings this year that comes with an updated Summary of Economic Projections —
the Fed's own dot plot of where individual officials expect rates to go. That
update, more than any single official's public remarks between now and then,
will be the clearest signal of whether this meeting's hawkish dissent was a
one-time event or the start of a broader shift within the committee.

Before that meeting, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release
its August CPI report on Sept. 11. Because this year's dissent was explicitly
built on inflation running too hot for too long, another reading above 3% would
likely reinforce the case the three dissenting presidents already made. A
meaningful cooldown, on the other hand, would give the committee's majority
more room to hold its current position without further internal pushback.
Shelter costs, which have driven most of the recent monthly increases, are the
single line item most worth tracking in that report, since a slowdown there
would do more to ease the committee's inflation concerns than movement in any
other category.

What to Watch Next 1 · September FOMC Meeting (Sept. 15-16)
Comes with an updated dot plot — the clearest read on whether more officials
are leaning toward the dissenters' hawkish view.
2 · August CPI Report (Sept. 11)
A reading above 3% would reinforce the case for holding or hiking; a cooldown
would ease pressure on the committee's majority.
3 · Additional Hawkish Dissents
A repeat dissent in September from the same three presidents, or a fourth
joining them, would be a stronger signal than this meeting alone.

The Bottom Line
A fifth consecutive hold was, by itself, unremarkable. A three-person hawkish
dissent — the first since 2016 — signals real disagreement inside the Fed over
whether current policy is tight enough to finish the job on inflation.

Goldman's decision to push its own rate-cut forecast out to 2027, while
separately raising the odds it assigns to a hike, shows that Wall Street is now
treating higher-for-longer as the more likely path rather than a tail risk to
hedge against. That is a meaningful shift from where consensus expectations sat
earlier this year, when a 2026 cut was still the base case for many forecasters.

The September dot plot, not any single official's comments between now and
then, will show whether this meeting's hawkish dissent was an outlier or the
start of a broader shift.

One More Question
Higher-for-longer interest rates affect more than the stock market — they keep
mortgage rates, credit card rates and savings account yields anchored where
they are for longer than many households were planning around. If the next rate
cut really is pushed out to 2027, would that change any borrowing or saving
decision on your calendar this year?

Andrew reads every reply.



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