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The Seven Strategic Failures That Will End Khamenei’s Rule [[link removed]]

The Islamic regime in Iran faces major protests that will, at the very least, severely diminish its powers, both at home and internationally. These struggles are not the result of mere policy errors. They reflect systemic constraints in the regime’s power structure, argues Zineb Riboua [[link removed]].

In a new essay [[link removed]], she identifies seven of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s irreversible strategic missteps: (1) mismanaging an ongoing water crisis, (2) abandoning its proxies, (3) misreading Israel, (4) underestimating the United States’ resolve, (5) overestimating Chinese commitment, (6) alienating Iranian youth, and (7) relying too heavily on domestic coercion.

She expanded on these points during an interview on the BBC [[link removed]].

Read here. [[link removed]]

The Ayatollah’s Regime Is Crumbling [[link removed]]

“No matter what happens now, there is no scenario in which the Islamic Republic survives 2026 with its power intact,” writes Michael Doran [[link removed]] in The Free Press [[link removed]].

He appeared on a Free Press livestream [[link removed]] to discuss why the protests started, the international response to the rising death toll, and the future of the Iranian regime.

Watch here. [[link removed]]

Why Should Trump Consider Recognizing Somaliland? Because It Works [[link removed]]

In The Washington Post [[link removed]], Joshua Meservey [[link removed]] explains why the United States should follow Israel’s lead and recognize the de facto state of Somaliland: the enclave has free elections and a state that functions better than some recognized African countries, while most objections to its independence do not hold water.

But more importantly for American interests, Somaliland has roughly 500 miles of coastline on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the world’s most important waterways and a key front in US-China competition.

Read here. [[link removed]]

Is Trump Risking NATO Alliances over Greenland? [[link removed]]

It is unlikely that anyone in the Pentagon is currently drawing up war plans for an invasion of Greenland, said [[link removed]] Peter Rough [[link removed]]. But President Donald Trump’s position on Greenland’s strategic importance has remained consistent—and the president’s statements will likely lead to improved security on the island, whether it is US or European forces that provide it, he argued.

Watch here. [[link removed]]

Lighting the Path Ahead: Scenario-Based Planning in the Tripolar Nuclear Age [[link removed]]

In today’s uncertain geopolitical environment, policymakers need to act now to reform America’s nuclear posture. To help them think through the challenges, Andrew Krepinevich Jr. [[link removed]] lays out six scenarios [[link removed]] for how nuclear weapons might be used in the emerging tripolar order.

Read here. [[link removed]]

Before you go . . .

The Supreme Court’s forthcoming decision on whether the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) empowers the president to impose sweeping tariffs during a declared national emergency has significant implications for the Trump administration. But more broadly, it may alter the fundamental architecture of the US system of divided powers in an era where national security threats are no longer purely military.

Paul Sracic [[link removed]] explains the history of this argument and its future implications in a Hudson policy memo [[link removed]].

Read here. [[link removed]]

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