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Hudson in 5
The Islamic regime in Iran faces major protests that will, at the very least, severely diminish its powers, both at home and internationally. These struggles are not the result of mere policy errors. They reflect systemic constraints in the regime’s power structure, argues Zineb Riboua.
In a new essay, she identifies seven of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s irreversible strategic missteps: (1) mismanaging an ongoing water crisis, (2) abandoning its proxies, (3) misreading Israel, (4) underestimating the United States’ resolve, (5) overestimating Chinese commitment, (6) alienating Iranian youth, and (7) relying too heavily on domestic coercion.
She expanded on these points during an interview on the BBC.
“No matter what happens now, there is no scenario in which the Islamic Republic survives 2026 with its power intact,” writes Michael Doran in The Free Press.
He appeared on a Free Press livestream to discuss why the protests started, the international response to the rising death toll, and the future of the Iranian regime.
In The Washington Post, Joshua Meservey explains why the United States should follow Israel’s lead and recognize the de facto state of Somaliland: the enclave has free elections and a state that functions better than some recognized African countries, while most objections to its independence do not hold water.
But more importantly for American interests, Somaliland has roughly 500 miles of coastline on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the world’s most important waterways and a key front in US-China competition.
It is unlikely that anyone in the Pentagon is currently drawing up war plans for an invasion of Greenland, said Peter Rough. But President Donald Trump’s position on Greenland’s strategic importance has remained consistent—and the president’s statements will likely lead to improved security on the island, whether it is US or European forces that provide it, he argued.
In today’s uncertain geopolitical environment, policymakers need to act now to reform America’s nuclear posture. To help them think through the challenges, Andrew Krepinevich Jr. lays out six scenarios for how nuclear weapons might be used in the emerging tripolar order.
Before you go . . .
The Supreme Court’s forthcoming decision on whether the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) empowers the president to impose sweeping tariffs during a declared national emergency has significant implications for the Trump administration. But more broadly, it may alter the fundamental architecture of the US system of divided powers in an era where national security threats are no longer purely military.
Paul Sracic explains the history of this argument and its future implications in a Hudson policy memo.
