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A Budget That Only Works If You Don’t Look Too Closely
Governor Gavin Newsom says California is facing just a $3 billion budget shortfall. His administration is highlighting this number as he presents his final budget proposal as governor.
But there is a much more cautious view. The nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office says California should actually plan for a shortfall closer to $18 billion. This isn’t just a technical difference—it shows two very different ways of handling risk.
Budgets should help a state get ready for the future, not just make voters feel better. When the governor’s estimate is so different from the independent analyst’s, it raises questions about which number is careful and which is just hopeful.
This conflict is present throughout the whole proposal. And none of Newsom’s proposals contemplates the kinds of systematic spending reductions that will be needed to address massive shortfalls, predicted by both the LAO and the Governor, starting next year..
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