Gavin Newsom’s Fantasy Budget: A January Miracle Built on Fiction

Our afternoon columns are created for our paid subscribers. Everyone can read part of this piece, but only subscribers get full access.

⏱️ 6-minute read

A Budget That Only Works If You Don’t Look Too Closely

Governor Gavin Newsom says California is facing just a $3 billion budget shortfall. His administration is highlighting this number as he presents his final budget proposal as governor.

But there is a much more cautious view. The nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office says California should actually plan for a shortfall closer to $18 billion. This isn’t just a technical difference—it shows two very different ways of handling risk.

Budgets should help a state get ready for the future, not just make voters feel better. When the governor’s estimate is so different from the independent analyst’s, it raises questions about which number is careful and which is just hopeful.

This conflict is present throughout the whole proposal. And none of Newsom’s proposals contemplates the kinds of systematic spending reductions that will be needed to address massive shortfalls, predicted by both the LAO and the Governor, starting next year..

The rest of this analysis is for paid subscribers.

Upgrade now to read the full column — and gain access to accountability-driven analysis that follows the numbers rather than the talking points, while supporting independent journalism that is beholden to no one.

What paid subscribers will see below:

• Why the $22 billion education “surprise” masks deeper problems

• How deferrals and loans create budget illusions

• Why AI-driven revenue makes this budget risky

• How unions benefit while taxpayers carry the risk

• How weak opposition and soft coverage enable the narrative

• Why this works politically — until it does not...