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Iran at a Crossroads: Protests, Repression, and the Risk of U.S. Military Escalation


** Experts discuss the ongoing protests in Iran, what it means for the country's future, and how Trump may respond.
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The Islamic Republic is confronting the largest—and potentially most consequential—wave of protests since 2009. Nationwide uprisings have shaken the foundations of the state, igniting speculation that the regime may be approaching a breaking point—or even facing an internal coup. At the same time, regional and international tensions are escalating. Israel, backed by growing voices in Washington, has urged Donald Trump to take military action against Iran. Trump, for his part, has openly threatened strikes not only over Tehran’s nuclear and missile programs, but also in the name of “protecting the protesters.”

Is the theocratic regime in Tehran nearing its end? If it falls, could Iran finally embark on a path toward democracy—or will power simply shift from clerics to generals through a coup led by elements of the Revolutionary Guards? Alternatively, does the country risk descending into prolonged instability or civil war? And if the United States and Israel intervene militarily, what chain of consequences might follow—for Iran, the region, and the world?

January 2026

12
12:00 PM ET
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Join us for a timely and important discussion with:

Vali Nasr

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Vali Nasr is the Majid Khadduri Professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies at Johns Hopkins SAIS. He served as the eighth Dean of Johns Hopkins SAIS between 2012-2019 and served as Senior Advisor to U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Ambassador Richard Holbrooke between 2009-2011.

Ellie Geranmayeh

Ellie Geranmayeh is a senior policy fellow and deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations. She specializes in European foreign policy concerning Iran, focusing on nuclear negotiations and sanctions policy. Geranmayeh played a significant role in the diplomatic efforts leading to the 2015 JCPOA.

Mohammad Ali Shabani

Mohammad Ali Shabani is an award-winning Middle East expert and scholar. He is the editor of Amwaj.media, a leading London-based news site focusing on Iran, Iraq, and the Arabian Peninsula countries. He is a graduate of SOAS/University of London and has been published in prominent outlets such as the New York Times and Foreign Affairs.

Trita Parsi (Moderator)

Trita Parsi is the executive vice president of the Quincy Institute. He was the 2010 recipient of the Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order and was named by the Washingtonian Magazine as one of the 25 most influential voices on foreign policy in Washington D.C. in both 2021 and 2022. Parsi is an expert on the geopolitics of the Middle East.

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