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The Islamic Republic is confronting the largest—and potentially most consequential—wave of protests since 2009. Nationwide uprisings have shaken the foundations of the state, igniting speculation that the regime may be approaching a breaking point—or even facing an internal coup. At the same time, regional and international tensions are escalating. Israel, backed by growing voices in Washington, has urged Donald Trump to take military action against Iran. Trump, for his part, has openly threatened strikes not only over Tehran’s nuclear and missile programs, but also in the name of “protecting the protesters.”
Is the theocratic regime in Tehran nearing its end? If it falls, could Iran finally embark on a path toward democracy—or will power simply shift from clerics to generals through a coup led by elements of the Revolutionary Guards? Alternatively, does the country risk descending into prolonged instability or civil war? And if the United States and Israel intervene militarily, what chain of consequences might follow—for Iran, the region, and the world?
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