PLNT ran from $92 to $114. The next setup could be a short. ͏  ͏
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[Morning Watchlist]

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-------------------------

OUR “END OF YEAR” TRADING OPPORTUNITY EXPLODED

Every year, markets develop their own rhythms. Some are driven by
earnings cycles. Others by taxes, fund flows, and calendar effects.
And a surprising number are fueled by something far more human: our
annual desire to “start fresh.”

That’s why, since early November, we’ve been pounding the table on
what we call NEW YEAR RESOLUTION TRADES, setups tied to the
predictable surge in consumer behavior as the calendar flips. As we
noted at the time:

Around this time of year, about 90% of us, according to Johns Hopkins
Medicine, make a resolution to lose weight, diet, and exercise more.
All as millions of us begin to worry about our expanding waistlines,
and promise ourselves "next year will be different.”

This isn’t just a cultural phenomenon. It’s a REPEATABLE CATALYST
with real revenue impact for companies positioned at the center of the
“new year, new me” mindset. People don’t just make resolutions,
they spend money trying to keep them.

Some will join Weight Watchers. Some will try structured meal plans
like Medifast. Others will finally commit to the gym membership
they’ve been putting off since spring. That wave of consumer intent
tends to show up in market behavior, too. Especially in stocks that
investors have learned to associate with the January
health-and-fitness push.

One of the cleanest examples is PLANET FITNESS (SYM: PLNT).

-------------------------

PLANET FITNESS: A SEASONAL MOVE THAT KEEPS REPEATING

For several years running, PLNT has tended to RALLY INTO THE HOLIDAYS
AND THROUGH THE “RESOLUTION WINDOW,” as traders position for the
surge in membership signups and renewed attention on fitness.

We’ve seen versions of this play out repeatedly:

*
A notable move higher into late 2020

*
A similar pattern in late 2021

*
Another run in late 2022

*
And again in 2023 and 2024

This year was no exception. Since early November, PLNT ran from about
$92 TO $114—a sharp move that rewarded anyone positioned early for
the seasonal upswing.

What matters most is not just that the stock moved. It’s that the
move was aligned with a KNOWN BEHAVIORAL CATALYST, and it followed a
pattern that’s been visible in prior years. That combination,
repeatability plus a timely narrative, often creates the kind of price
action traders can plan around.

And importantly: this wasn’t merely “hope” or “theme
investing.” PLNT also delivered on fundamentals.

-------------------------

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-------------------------

STRONG EARNINGS ADDED FUEL TO THE RALLY

Seasonality can help stocks trend. But when earnings and guidance
confirm the story, the market often goes from “interested” to
“aggressively bidding.”

PLNT did exactly that with a strong earnings report and upbeat
outlook:

*
EPS: 80 cents, beating expectations by six cents

*
REVENUE: $330.3 million, up 13% year over year, beating by $6.87
million

Even more constructive was management’s updated guidance. PLNT
raised its 2025 OUTLOOK, now expecting:

*
SAME CLUB SALES GROWTH: about 6.5% (up from 6%)

*
REVENUE GROWTH: 11% (up from 10%)

*
ADJUSTED EBITDA GROWTH: 12% (up from 10%)

*
ADJUSTED NET INCOME GROWTH: 13% to 14% (up from 8% to 9%)

In other words, the market wasn’t just buying “resolution hype.”
Investors were also responding to EXECUTION and IMPROVING
EXPECTATIONS—the kind of combination that can sustain a move longer
than traders anticipate.

-------------------------

_Stansberry Research_

A MONTH BEFORE THE CRASH?!
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-------------------------

THE NEXT SETUP: PREPARE FOR THE PULLBACK (AND A POTENTIAL SHORT)

Here’s where it gets even more interesting.

As predictable as the year-end / early-year run higher has become for
PLNT, THE POST-RESOLUTION PULLBACK HAS ALSO BECOME A RECURRING
OPPORTUNITY. In many years, PLNT tends to soften in JANUARY AND
FEBRUARY, after the “resolution trade” has been widely recognized
and priced in.

This is the part that many investors miss: the catalyst is
powerful—but it is also TIME-BOUND.

Once January enthusiasm peaks, the market often shifts from
anticipation to scrutiny. Traders who bought the seasonal run take
profits. Investors start asking whether signups will translate into
durable results. And the stock—having already rallied—can become
vulnerable to even modest disappointment, rotation, or simple mean
reversion.

Recent history highlights this downside pattern:

*
2022: PLNT dropped from about $90 to $75 within weeks after the year
started

*
2023: PLNT dropped from about $80 to $60 within weeks after the year
started

*
2024: PLNT dropped from about $75 to $55 again within weeks after the
year started

To be clear: history doesn’t “guarantee” anything. But when a
stock shows repeated post-catalyst weakness, it creates a framework to
manage trades more professionally:

*
IDENTIFY THE CATALYST WINDOW (late Q4 through early January)

*
PARTICIPATE IN THE UPTREND WHILE IT’S WORKING

*
THEN SHIFT FROM OFFENSE TO DEFENSE as the calendar effect fades

That’s why we’re already preparing for the potential SHORT-SIDE or
downside setup in PLNT.

HOW WE THINK ABOUT THE DOWNSIDE TRADE

We view this in practical terms:

*
THE UPTREND HAS BEEN THE EASY MONEY.
The seasonal narrative + strong earnings helped drive a clean move
higher.

*
NOW COMES THE MORE TACTICAL PHASE.
As the “resolution wave” becomes fully obvious, the trade becomes
crowded. That’s often when risk/reward flips.

*
WE’RE WATCHING FOR A REVERSAL SIGNAL AND BETTER DOWNSIDE TIMING.
Instead of shorting blindly, the higher-probability approach is to let
the market show signs that momentum is stalling—then position with
defined risk.

Potential drivers of a pullback can include:

*
Post-holiday profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing

*
Rotation out of “theme winners” into other sectors

*
A simple digestion period after a sharp rally

*
Any hint that expectations got ahead of reality

Again, the goal is not to predict the exact top. The goal is to
recognize when a well-known seasonal trade starts to lose its
edge—and then use that to your advantage.

-------------------------

_Crypto 101_

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-------------------------

_Are there any other seasonal stocks you're buying right now? What
other sectors of the market are you currently interested in? Hit
"reply" to this email and let us know your thoughts!_

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