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Our “End of Year” Trading Opportunity Exploded
Every year, markets develop their own rhythms. Some are driven by earnings cycles. Others by taxes, fund flows, and calendar effects. And a surprising number are fueled by something far more human: our annual desire to “start fresh.”
That’s why, since early November, we’ve been pounding the table on what we call New Year Resolution trades, setups tied to the predictable surge in consumer behavior as the calendar flips. As we noted at the time:
Around this time of year, about 90% of us, according to Johns Hopkins Medicine, make a resolution to lose weight, diet, and exercise more. All as millions of us begin to worry about our expanding waistlines, and promise ourselves "next year will be different.”
This isn’t just a cultural phenomenon. It’s a repeatable catalyst with real revenue impact for companies positioned at the center of the “new year, new me” mindset. People don’t just make resolutions, they spend money trying to keep them.
Some will join Weight Watchers. Some will try structured meal plans like Medifast. Others will finally commit to the gym membership they’ve been putting off since spring. That wave of consumer intent tends to show up in market behavior, too. Especially in stocks that investors have learned to associate with the January health-and-fitness push.
One of the cleanest examples is Planet Fitness (SYM: PLNT).
Planet Fitness: A Seasonal Move That Keeps Repeating
For several years running, PLNT has tended to rally into the holidays and through the “resolution window,” as traders position for the surge in membership signups and renewed attention on fitness.
We’ve seen versions of this play out repeatedly:
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A notable move higher into late 2020
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A similar pattern in late 2021
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Another run in late 2022
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And again in 2023 and 2024
This year was no exception. Since early November, PLNT ran from about $92 to $114—a sharp move that rewarded anyone positioned early for the seasonal upswing.
What matters most is not just that the stock moved. It’s that the move was aligned with a known behavioral catalyst, and it followed a pattern that’s been visible in prior years. That combination, repeatability plus a timely narrative, often creates the kind of price action traders can plan around.
And importantly: this wasn’t merely “hope” or “theme investing.” PLNT also delivered on fundamentals.
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Strong Earnings Added Fuel to the Rally
Seasonality can help stocks trend. But when earnings and guidance confirm the story, the market often goes from “interested” to “aggressively bidding.”
PLNT did exactly that with a strong earnings report and upbeat outlook:
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EPS: 80 cents, beating expectations by six cents
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Revenue: $330.3 million, up 13% year over year, beating by $6.87 million
Even more constructive was management’s updated guidance. PLNT raised its 2025 outlook, now expecting:
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Same club sales growth: about 6.5% (up from 6%)
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Revenue growth: 11% (up from 10%)
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Adjusted EBITDA growth: 12% (up from 10%)
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Adjusted net income growth: 13% to 14% (up from 8% to 9%)
In other words, the market wasn’t just buying “resolution hype.” Investors were also responding to execution and improving expectations—the kind of combination that can sustain a move longer than traders anticipate.
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A month before the crash?!
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The Next Setup: Prepare for the Pullback (and a Potential Short)
Here’s where it gets even more interesting.
As predictable as the year-end / early-year run higher has become for PLNT, the post-resolution pullback has also become a recurring opportunity. In many years, PLNT tends to soften in January and February, after the “resolution trade” has been widely recognized and priced in.
This is the part that many investors miss: the catalyst is powerful—but it is also time-bound.
Once January enthusiasm peaks, the market often shifts from anticipation to scrutiny. Traders who bought the seasonal run take profits. Investors start asking whether signups will translate into durable results. And the stock—having already rallied—can become vulnerable to even modest disappointment, rotation, or simple mean reversion.
Recent history highlights this downside pattern:
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2022: PLNT dropped from about $90 to $75 within weeks after the year started
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2023: PLNT dropped from about $80 to $60 within weeks after the year started
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2024: PLNT dropped from about $75 to $55 again within weeks after the year started
To be clear: history doesn’t “guarantee” anything. But when a stock shows repeated post-catalyst weakness, it creates a framework to manage trades more professionally:
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Identify the catalyst window (late Q4 through early January)
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Participate in the uptrend while it’s working
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Then shift from offense to defense as the calendar effect fades
That’s why we’re already preparing for the potential short-side or downside setup in PLNT.
How We Think About the Downside Trade
We view this in practical terms:
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The uptrend has been the easy money.
The seasonal narrative + strong earnings helped drive a clean move higher.
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Now comes the more tactical phase.
As the “resolution wave” becomes fully obvious, the trade becomes crowded. That’s often when risk/reward flips.
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We’re watching for a reversal signal and better downside timing.
Instead of shorting blindly, the higher-probability approach is to let the market show signs that momentum is stalling—then position with defined risk.
Potential drivers of a pullback can include:
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Post-holiday profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing
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Rotation out of “theme winners” into other sectors
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A simple digestion period after a sharp rally
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Any hint that expectations got ahead of reality
Again, the goal is not to predict the exact top. The goal is to recognize when a well-known seasonal trade starts to lose its edge—and then use that to your advantage.
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Are there any other seasonal stocks you're buying right now? What other sectors of the market are you currently interested in? Hit "reply" to this email and let us know your thoughts!
