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Hi Friend,

As the country winds down for Christmas, the wheels of Government (waste) have continued to turn. This week, we’re bringing you the latest on the state of the Government’s books, breaking down Minister Bishop’s latest reforms (another mega-department, anyone?), and we’ve got a surprising Taxpayer Hero story uncovered by our research team.

Plus, we wrap up this year’s Taxpayer Talk podcasts with a banger of an episode from Jordan and David Cohen, author of Jacinda: The Untold Stories. Let’s go.

The Fiscal Elephants are real (and they’re not going anywhere) 🎪🐘



As you may have caught in the media last week, we caused a bit of a stir by pointing out the fiscal elephants in the room — but last week's Half Year Fiscal and Economic Update (HYEFU) confirmed what we already knew: despite the big talk, the numbers show that Government is failing to get the books back into shape.

For the third time in just two years, Minister Nicola Willis has pushed the surplus further down the road and increased how much the Government needs to borrow just to keep the lights on. Even using her made-up OBEGALx measure — which excludes eye-watering ACC and climate liabilities — the books don’t return to black until 2030. On the traditional OBEGAL measure, Treasury forecasts that New Zealand will never get back into operating surplus.

Our policy guru, James, was in the Treasury lock-up and gave these comments to the media:

“When Nicola Willis took up the reins as Finance Minister in December 2023, a surplus was only three and a half years away in 2027. Now it’ll take six and a half years instead, with the surplus slipping further back to 2030.”

“The Finance Minister says we’re on the right track to reach surplus, but we seem to be walking backwards. Every time Treasury opens the books, balancing them seems like more of a pipe-dream.”

“The Budget in May predicted a $214 million surplus by 2029. Within six months, that’s deteriorated by more than $515 per household, projecting a $945 million deficit for the year even using the Minister’s custom OBEGALx measure.”

“There’s only so far we can keep kicking the can down the road. The Robertson-Willis spend-and-borrow approach isn’t working, and Budget 2026 needs to deliver a realistic pathway back to surplus.”

Indeed.

On a more positive note, it's good to see some GDP growth, with Stats NZ releasing the latest quarterly statistics showing a 1.1 percent increase.

This is wonderful news, but we have some catching up to do. GDP per capita remains 2.6 percent smaller than when the last Government left office, and – as Treasury are at pains to point out – growth alone won't be enough to fix the structural deficit faced by the Government.

Put bluntly: Government spending must come down if we are to avoid the sort of shock and pain experienced in the 1990s. Ouch.

One Ministry to Rule Them All? Bishop’s mega-merger gets a cautious tick 👷🏻‍♂️



While James was in the lock-up with Nicola Willis for the opening of the Government's books, Christopher Bishop was busy unveiling his new 'mega-ministry' that will roll in the Ministries of Environment, Transport, Housing & Urban Development, plus the local government functions of Internal Affairs. The plan is to have it operational by the middle of 2026.

We're cautiously optimistic. On the one hand New Zealand has far too many departments and ministries <[link removed]> but on the other, simply creating another MBIE-style super-ministry doesn’t magically fix overstaffing or productivity problems. In particular, having government agencies reporting to multiple Ministers is a recipe for muddled responsibility and accountability to no one.

But — and it’s a big but — credit where it’s due. Minister Bishop is acknowledging a problem and taking steps to fix it. Many of New Zealand’s biggest policy headaches are deeply intertwined: housing, climate policy, transport, and infrastructure. Having those government policy functions within a single entity makes sense. 

Where mergers can go wrong is where the end product is even larger than its parts (I'm looking at you, Auckland Super City!). Mergers alone don't cut bureaucrat numbers or shrink spending. But, given Minister Bishop's public comments about striving for efficiencies as part of this process <[link removed]>, this move gets a cautious thumbs-up from your humble Taxpayers' Union. 👍

Our final Taxpayer Hero award of 2025 🏕️🎉



Given the year spent calling out waste, bloat, and bureaucratic nonsense, it’s only fair that we finish by recognising a case where taxpayer money was used well.

The research team has come across some fascinating financial analysis of the Department of Conservation’s “Always Be Naturing” campaign. Costing $2.07 million, the analysis we've been digging into shows that we can expect some $16.4 million in revenue, savings, and value-in-kind support over the next three years.

Funded through the International Visitor Levy, the campaign focuses on increasing conservation volunteering by leveraging private-sector partnerships, donations, and in-kind support — rather than simply reaching back into taxpayers’ pockets.

That’s exactly the kind of approach we want to see more of. Instead of glossy ads with vague outcomes, this campaign has been tied to measurable returns and real-world support, rather than using taxpayer money as a crutch.

So in the spirit of Christmas, we thought we'd highlight some good news to show that smarter spending beats bigger budgets with DOC earning our final Taxpayer Hero award of 2025. 🏅

You can read the full response to our Official Information Act request here. <[link removed]>

The Cap Rates NOW fight continues in Auckland 🧢🏠



Wayne Brown was re-elected promising to cut waste and keep rates low. Just two months later, Aucklanders are facing the largest ever rates increase in the Super City’s history.

Ignore the Council spin about “average properties”. The reality is simple: Auckland Council plans to take an extra $294 million from ratepayers next year.

While much of the increase is being blamed on the City Rail Link, Council officers have quietly admitted that a significant portion has nothing to do with CRL — and still refuse to say how much. Auckland Council isn't exactly known for being forthcoming, but even for them this is a shocking lack of transparency.

And while we’re on the subject – maybe this is why Minister for Local Government, Simon Watts, needs to hear the final word of our Cap Rates campaign slogan: NOW. Auckland might be first out of the gate, but we can guarantee other councils will be planning to use the same trick: hike rates now while they still can.

Which brings us to some other news...

<[link removed]>



We’re pleased to welcome back Josh Van Veen as the our Local Government Campaigns Manager.

Josh previously worked for the Taxpayers' Union before spending nearly three years inside the Mayor of Auckland’s office, including a stint as Wayne Brown's Deputy Chief of Staff. That's given him a rare insider’s view of how Auckland Council decisions are really made – and a renewed vigour to fight on the side of ratepayers.

Josh hasn’t eased back in. Within days, he was publicly challenging Wayne Brown over the scale of the rates grab and the lack of clarity around what ratepayers are actually paying for. You can listen to his RNZ interview here. <[link removed]>

With record high rates bills being planned all across the country, Josh is certainly going to be busy!

Taxpayer Talk: David Cohen on his new book: Jacinda: The Untold Story 🎙️

<[link removed]>

Last week I sat down with my friend David Cohen for a no-holds-barred chat about his new book, Jacinda: The Untold Stories <[link removed]>.

Billed as a refreshingly un-mushy take on Jacinda Ardern’s premiership, David drew on hundreds of interviews to cut through the PR gloss and media fawning. His verdict? Ardern was a talented brand manager, powered by what he calls a “missionary zeal” — but that communications-first style came at a cost, with big policies like KiwiBuild never properly stress-tested.

As someone who got to know Ardern prior to her becoming Prime Minister, I think David has accurately captured what drove Ardern, her talents, and her flaws. A great gift for the person in your life who loves (or loathes) New Zealand's 40th Prime Minister. <[link removed]>

You can listen to the podcast here, or wherever you get good podcasts. <[link removed]>

Merry Christmas from all of us at the Taxpayers’ Union 🎄



2025 has been huuuuge for the Taxpayers’ Union – from our campaign victories in the Budget (accelerated depreciation, anyone?) to convincing the Government to adopt Rates Capping – everything accomplished was only possible thanks to the generous support of the tens of thousands who have chipped in with a donation.

The key priority next year is stopping a costly Labour/Te Pāti Māori/Green coalition of tax and spend chaos.Will you consider chipping-in to our 2026 fighting fund with an end of year donation? <[link removed]>

So from the whole team, wishing you and your family a very Merry Christmas and a happy New Year.  🍾

<[link removed]> <[link removed]>Thank you for standing with us.


Jordan Williams
Executive Director
New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union

PS. The Taxpayers’ Union has had some amazing successes this year - from overturning the Ute Tax 2.0 to securing rates caps for all, we’re making sure that your money stays where it belongs - in your pockets. 2026 is going to be a huge year as we fight off the threat of Labour/Te Pāti Māori/Greens coalition, and their radical plans to spend hard and tax even harder. We can't do it alone. <[link removed]>

In the Media:

RNZ 'Public good over corporate greed': Greens challenge Willis to debate them instead <[link removed]>

Gisborne HeraldLabour steadies, eyes Māori seats <[link removed]>

NZ Herald The three most improved MPs of 2025; zingers from Parliament’s Christmas roast - Audrey Young <[link removed]>

RNZ The Whip for 17 December 2025 <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB Heather Du Plessis-Allan Drive: Full Show Podcast, 17 December 2025  <[link removed]>

The Press Can Christopher Luxon credibly lead a Government from 30%? <[link removed]>

RNZ Oral Questions for Wednesday 17 December 2025 <[link removed]>

One News Breakfast Finance Minister's overview of 2025 <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB Liam Dann: NZ Herald Business Editor on the state of the Government's books <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB Kerre Woodham: The Finance Minister is charting a tough course <[link removed]>

Waatea NewsProfessor Matt Roskruge | Associate Dean Māori in the School of Economics and Finance <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB Pollies: Mark Mitchell and Ginny Andersen on retail crime, highs and lows of 2025, Government's books <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB Barbara Edmonds: Labour's Finance Spokesperson on the state of the Government's books <[link removed]>

RNZ Government surplus now expected in 2029/30. <[link removed]>

Stuff Richardson declining debate ‘tells you the full story', Willis says <[link removed]>

The Spinoff Hyefu lays out a path to surplus - if nothing goes wrong <[link removed]>

RNZ First Up - The Podcast, Wednesday 17 December <[link removed]>

Politik Willis blames Treasury <[link removed]>

RNZ Economists forecast tough calls to get books back to black <[link removed]>

The Westport News Warning from Nicola Willis as government finances get gloomier <[link removed]>

Whakatane Beacon Open warfare in this coalition <[link removed]>

Whanganui Chronicle Labour steadies, eyes Māori seats <[link removed]>

RNZ Mayor Wayne Brown's rate rise not popular with former deputy chief of staff <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB The Huddle: What do we make of Ruth Richardson calling off the Nicola Willis debate? <[link removed]>

RNZ Finance minister must take responsibility for state of books, say Labour, Taxpayer Union <[link removed]>

RNZ Willis v Richardson debate unlikely to go ahead <[link removed]>

RNZ Treasury update reveals bleaker picture than predicted <[link removed]>

The Press Ruth Richardson pulls out of ‘circus’ debate with Nicola Willis <[link removed]>

NZ Herald Ruth Richardson backs out of debate with Nicola Willis <[link removed]>

RNZ Auckland mayor's former staffer fronting anti-rates rise lobby group <[link removed]>

Waikato Times Half-year economic update: The fiscal plan that depends on nothing going wrong <[link removed]>

NZ Herald Nicola Willis makes a Christmas wish as she comes out swinging against Taxpayers’ Union and Labour <[link removed]>

The Spinoff Hyefu 2025: Economic recovery? I barely knew ye <[link removed]>

The Press Government’s return to surplus pushed back another year to 2030 <[link removed]>

Newsroom Willis delays return to surplus by another year <[link removed]>

RNZ Willis working on 'disciplined' plan for returning books to surplus <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB Steven Joyce: Former Finance Minister ahead of Treasury's Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update <[link removed]>

Cranmer's Substack The Architecture of a Capable State: Why Cuts, Cosmetic Fixes and Good Intentions are not enough <[link removed]>

TVNZ Govt to open its books today - what to expect from Nicola Willis <[link removed]>

The Post Not a fairy tale: How Wicked Queen Ruth met her match in Snow Willis <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB Heather Du Plessis-Allan Drive: Full Show Podcast, 15 December 2025 <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB Nicola Willis: Finance Minister speaks ahead of Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update release <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB Barry Soper: Newstalk ZB senior political correspondent on whether surplus is likely to be pushed out further <[link removed]>

RNZ Political commentators Tim Hurdle and Gareth Hughes <[link removed]>

The Platform Craig Stobo Says It’s Not All Bad News For The NZ Economy <[link removed]>

Radio New Zealand Audio Weekly interview with Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon <[link removed]>

BusinessDesk On the Money: Cordis Bros at Cordis Xmas, Anna Breman, Chris Castle, Nicola Willis, Warren Bell, Craig Bonnor, and more <[link removed]>

RNZ Early Business News for 15 December 2025 <[link removed]>

Politik The mother of all farces <[link removed]>

The Post Ruth Richardson on Nicola’s Fudge and why the ‘middle way’ is a dangerous illusion <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB THE RE-WRAP: Dude, Where's My Surplus? <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB The Huddle: Did we expect more from the McSkimming sentencing? <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB News Fix: Midday Edition, 10 December 2025 <[link removed]>

BusinessDesk Taxpayers’ Union feeds journalists Nicola’s Fudge <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZBChris Hipkins: Labour Leader on the debate between Nicola Willis, Taxpayers' Union, Andrew Coster <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB Support for Labour and National drops in latest poll, indicating potential for hung Parliament <[link removed]>

The Press New poll has Labour ahead but coalition returning to Government <[link removed]>

Pacific Media Network PMN News 10 December 2025 midday <[link removed]>

RNZ Labour remains most popular party in new poll, but coalition could still govern <[link removed]>

The Times OnlinePoll shows Labour is New Zealand’s most popular political party <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB Barry Soper: Newstalk ZB senior political correspondent on Nicola Willis offering to debate Ruth Richardson <[link removed]>

Stuff Second poll of the week shows coalition government has the numbers still, but only just <[link removed]>

NZ Herald Reserve Bank defends $850k Wellington to Auckland staff travel spend <[link removed]>

Croaking Cassandra Fiscal failure <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB - Heather Du Plessis-Allan Drive: Full Show Podcast, 10 December 2025 <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB News Fix: Afternoon Edition, 10 December 2025 <[link removed]>

The Spinoff Breaking: everything is good now <[link removed]>

The PostThe Mother of all Debates: What is the Taxpayers’ Union game here? <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB The Huddle: Does New Zealand need to follow Australia's lead on the social media ban? <[link removed]>

NZ Herald Nicola Willis v Ruth Richardson: The finance debate is a lose-lose <[link removed]>

NZ Herald Nicola Willis vs Ruth Richardson: Taxpayers’ Union backs down, requests economist moderator <[link removed]>

RNZ Taxpayers' Union releases fudge taking swipe at Finance Minister Nicola Willis <[link removed]>

The Press The Taxpayers' Union and the Finance Minister's ‘fudge' <[link removed]>

The Spinoff New Zealand's productivity problem: All the things that have been blamed <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB Marcus Lush Nights: DGI but DCT (10 December 2025) <[link removed]>

RNZ First Up - The Podcast, Thursday 11 December <[link removed]>

The Spinoff Is Nicola Willis losing the right? <[link removed]>

The Kaka New RBNZ governor unphased by rate hikes <[link removed]>

RNZ Taxpayers Union taking aim at government spending <[link removed]>

Stuff ‘We cannot continue like that': Why Ruth Richardson says Nicola Willis is fudging the numbers <[link removed]>

RNZ Morning Report Essentials for Thursday 11 December 2025 <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB Heather du Plessis-Allan: Nicola v Ruth - bring it on <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB THE RE-WRAP: Quiet In the Cheap Seats <[link removed]>

The Press Taxpayers’ Union launch ‘fudge’ campaign against Nicola Willis - and say she is trying to get out of debate <[link removed]>

NZ Herald Finance Minister Nicola Willis shows her mettle as attacks come from Left and Right - Audrey Young <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB News Fix: Midday Edition, 11 December 2025 <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB Politics Thursday: With Ayesha Verrall and Mike Butterick <[link removed]>

Waatea News Whakarāpopototanga Reo Māori: Ngā Tatauranga Pōti Hou me ngā Pānga ki te Māori. <[link removed]>

Stuff WATCH: No fudge here: Nicola Willis dismisses Taxpayers Union claims <[link removed]>

NZ City The Finance Minister is characterising the Taxpayers' Union campaign against her as childish <[link removed]>

RNZ 'Clowns to the left, jokers to the right': Willis-Richardson debate in doubt after ultimatum <[link removed]>

The Press Willis v Richardson: Lobby group demands debate on talkback, not in Parliament <[link removed]>

NZ Herald ‘Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right’: Nicola Willis hits back as debate reaches deadlock <[link removed]>

RNZ Willis-Richardson up in the air over location disagreement <[link removed]>

RNZ The Pre-Panel for 11 December 2025 <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB Barry Soper: Newstalk ZB senior political correspondent on Nicola Willis firing back at the Taxpayers' Union <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB Heather Du Plessis-Allan Drive: Full Show Podcast, 11 December 2025 <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB The Huddle: Is the Taxpayers' Union taking things too far here? <[link removed]>

Otago Daily Times Time to hand out deserved thank yous after a frenetic year <[link removed]>

NZ Herald Nicola Willis v Ruth Richardson: The finance debate is a lose-lose - Matthew Hooton <[link removed]>

The Post The Mother of all Debates: What is the Taxpayers' Union game here? <[link removed]>

Newsroom Parliament's ending its penultimate week and ready to rumble <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB Kerre Woodham: Willis and Richardson debating would be a pointless waste of time <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB Wrapping the Week with Kerre Woodham and Tim Wilson: Air NZ's safety video, Willis v Richardson debate, AI <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB David Farrar: Kiwiblog author and co-founder of the Taxpayers' Union on the debate between Nicola Willis and Ruth Richardson <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB Friday Faceoff: Tamatha Paul and Andrea Compton <[link removed]>

Werewolf Gordon Campbell On The Shrinking Lack Of Alternatives Here, And In The US <[link removed]>

NZ Herald Nicola Willis vs Ruth Richardson: Taxpayers’ Union backs down, requests economist moderator <[link removed]>

RNZ Ruth Richardson still willing to debate Nicola Willis after dispute over venue <[link removed]>

The Post Ruth Richardson backs down on demand Nicola Willis debate be on talkback <[link removed]>

NZ Herald Ruth Richardson v Nicola Willis - the facts behind the argument <[link removed]>

NZ Herald Letters: Teen athletics sensation Sam Ruthe has extraordinary talent <[link removed]>

BusinessDesk On the Money: Cordis Bros at Cordis Xmas, Anna Breman, Chris Castle, Nicola Willis, Warren Bell, Craig Bonnor, and more <[link removed]>

The Post Willis v Richardson: Enough of the fudging, it’s time for a proper debate <[link removed]>

National Business Review The great debate, polls, RMA reform, the economic outlook <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB The Panel with Brad Olsen & Allan Blackman: U.S. visa screening, Irish goodbye <[link removed]>

Stuff Damien Grant: Outside the headlines, a cohort of outstanding ministers is actually delivering <[link removed]>

The PostWillis v Richardson: The ultimate beltway confection <[link removed]>

TVNZ Luxon says Kiwis 'very clearly' see economy turning, defends Willis <[link removed]>

RNZ Media in the middle of fudge stunts, debate drama and 'right v left' rows <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB Nicola Willis: "I will stand up for myself" against Taxpayers' Union <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB Ethan Griffiths: Newstalk ZB political reporter on the ongoing war of words between Nicola Willis and Ruth Richardson <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB Francesca Rudkin: Willis v Richardson, I'm all for it <[link removed]>

RNZ 'Mother of all debates' &amp; right v left polarisation of news <[link removed]>

Three Gals One Beehive Bad mince and big decks <[link removed]>

The Post Ruth Richardson on Nicola’s Fudge and why the ‘middle way’ is a dangerous illusion <[link removed]>

PolitikThe mother of all farces <[link removed]>

RNZ Early Business News for 15 December 2025 <[link removed]>

RNZ Weekly interview with Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon 15 December <[link removed]>

New Zealand Taxpayers' Union Inc. · 117 Lambton Quay, Level 4, Wellington 6011, New Zealand
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