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Hi Friend,
As the
country winds down for Christmas, the wheels of Government (waste)
have continued to turn. This week, we’re bringing you the latest on
the state of the Government’s books, breaking down Minister Bishop’s
latest reforms (another mega-department, anyone?), and we’ve got a
surprising Taxpayer Hero story uncovered by our research
team.
Plus, we
wrap up this year’s Taxpayer Talk podcasts with a banger of
an episode from Jordan and David Cohen, author of Jacinda: The
Untold Stories. Let’s go.
The Fiscal
Elephants are real (and they’re not going anywhere) 🎪🐘
As you may
have caught in the media last week, we caused a bit of a stir by
pointing out the fiscal elephants in the room — but last
week's Half Year Fiscal and Economic Update (HYEFU) confirmed what we
already knew: despite the big talk, the numbers show that Government
is failing to get the books back into shape.
For the
third time in just two years, Minister Nicola Willis has pushed the
surplus further down the road and increased how much the Government
needs to borrow just to keep the lights on. Even using her made-up
OBEGALx measure — which excludes eye-watering ACC and climate
liabilities — the books don’t return to black until 2030. On the
traditional OBEGAL measure, Treasury forecasts that New Zealand will
never get back into operating surplus.
Our policy
guru, James, was in the Treasury lock-up and gave these comments to
the media:
“When Nicola Willis took up the reins as
Finance Minister in December 2023, a surplus was only three and a half
years away in 2027. Now it’ll take six and a half years instead, with
the surplus slipping further back to 2030.”
“The Finance
Minister says we’re on the right track to reach surplus, but we seem
to be walking backwards. Every time Treasury opens the books,
balancing them seems like more of a pipe-dream.”
“The Budget in
May predicted a $214 million surplus by 2029. Within six months,
that’s deteriorated by more than $515 per household, projecting a $945
million deficit for the year even using the Minister’s custom OBEGALx
measure.”
“There’s only so far we can keep kicking the can down
the road. The Robertson-Willis spend-and-borrow approach isn’t
working, and Budget 2026 needs to deliver a realistic pathway back to
surplus.”
Indeed.
On a more
positive note, it's good to see some GDP growth, with Stats NZ
releasing the latest quarterly statistics showing a 1.1 percent
increase.
This is
wonderful news, but we have some catching up to do. GDP per
capita remains 2.6 percent smaller than when the last Government
left office, and – as Treasury are at pains to point out – growth
alone won't be enough to fix the structural deficit faced by
the Government.
Put
bluntly: Government spending must come down if we are to avoid the
sort of shock and pain experienced in the 1990s.
Ouch.
One
Ministry to Rule Them All? Bishop’s mega-merger gets a cautious tick
👷🏻♂️
While James
was in the lock-up with Nicola Willis for the opening of the
Government's books, Christopher Bishop was busy unveiling his new
'mega-ministry' that will roll in the Ministries of Environment,
Transport, Housing & Urban Development, plus the local government
functions of Internal Affairs. The plan is to have it operational by
the middle of 2026.
We're
cautiously optimistic. On the one hand New
Zealand has far too many departments and ministries but on the
other, simply creating another MBIE-style super-ministry doesn’t
magically fix overstaffing or productivity problems. In particular,
having government agencies reporting to multiple Ministers is a recipe
for muddled responsibility and accountability to no one.
But — and
it’s a big but — credit where it’s due. Minister Bishop is
acknowledging a problem and taking steps to fix it. Many of
New Zealand’s biggest policy headaches are deeply intertwined:
housing, climate policy, transport, and infrastructure. Having those
government policy functions within a single entity makes
sense.
Where
mergers can go wrong is where the end product is even larger than its
parts (I'm looking at you, Auckland Super City!). Mergers alone don't
cut bureaucrat numbers or shrink spending. But, given Minister
Bishop's public comments about striving for efficiencies as part of
this process, this move gets a cautious thumbs-up from your humble
Taxpayers' Union. 👍
Our final Taxpayer Hero award of 2025
🏕️🎉
Given the
year spent calling out waste, bloat, and bureaucratic nonsense, it’s
only fair that we finish by recognising a case where taxpayer money
was used well.
The
research team has come across some fascinating financial analysis of
the Department of Conservation’s “Always Be Naturing”
campaign. Costing $2.07 million, the analysis we've been digging into
shows that we can expect some $16.4 million in revenue, savings, and
value-in-kind support over the next three years.
Funded
through the International Visitor Levy, the campaign focuses on
increasing conservation volunteering by leveraging private-sector
partnerships, donations, and in-kind support — rather than simply
reaching back into taxpayers’ pockets.
That’s exactly the kind of approach we want to
see more of. Instead of glossy ads with vague outcomes, this campaign
has been tied to measurable returns and real-world support, rather
than using taxpayer money as a crutch.
So in the
spirit of Christmas, we thought we'd highlight some good news to show
that smarter spending beats bigger budgets with DOC earning our final
Taxpayer Hero award of 2025. 🏅
You
can read the full response to our Official Information Act request
here.
The Cap Rates NOW fight continues in Auckland
🧢🏠
Wayne Brown
was re-elected promising to cut waste and keep rates low. Just two
months later, Aucklanders are facing the largest ever rates increase
in the Super City’s history.
Ignore the
Council spin about “average properties”. The reality is simple:
Auckland Council plans to take an extra $294 million from ratepayers
next year.
While much of the increase is being blamed on the
City Rail Link, Council officers have quietly admitted that a
significant portion has nothing to do with CRL — and still refuse to
say how much. Auckland Council isn't exactly known for being
forthcoming, but even for them this is a shocking lack of
transparency.
And while
we’re on the subject – maybe this is why Minister for Local
Government, Simon Watts, needs to hear the final word of our Cap Rates
campaign slogan: NOW. Auckland might be first out of the
gate, but we can guarantee other councils will be planning to use the
same trick: hike rates now while they still
can.
Which
brings us to some other news...
We’re pleased to welcome back Josh Van Veen as
the our Local Government Campaigns Manager.
Josh
previously worked for the Taxpayers' Union before spending nearly
three years inside the Mayor of Auckland’s office, including a stint
as Wayne Brown's Deputy Chief of Staff. That's given
him a rare insider’s view of how Auckland Council decisions are
really made – and a renewed vigour to fight on the side of
ratepayers.
Josh hasn’t
eased back in. Within days, he was publicly challenging Wayne Brown
over the scale of the rates grab and the lack of clarity around what
ratepayers are actually paying for. You
can listen to his RNZ interview here.
With record
high rates bills being planned all across the country, Josh is
certainly going to be busy!
Taxpayer Talk: David Cohen on his new book:
Jacinda: The Untold Story 🎙️
Last week I
sat down with my friend David Cohen for a no-holds-barred chat about
his new book, Jacinda:
The Untold Stories.
Billed as a
refreshingly un-mushy take on Jacinda Ardern’s premiership, David drew
on hundreds of interviews to cut through the PR gloss and media
fawning. His verdict? Ardern was a talented brand manager, powered by
what he calls a “missionary zeal” — but that
communications-first style came at a cost, with big policies like
KiwiBuild never properly stress-tested.
As someone
who got to know Ardern prior to her becoming Prime Minister, I think
David has accurately captured what drove Ardern, her talents, and her
flaws. A
great gift for the person in your life who loves
(or loathes) New Zealand's 40th Prime
Minister.
You
can listen to the podcast here, or wherever you get good
podcasts.
Merry Christmas from all of us at the Taxpayers’
Union 🎄
2025 has
been huuuuge for the Taxpayers’ Union – from our campaign
victories in the Budget (accelerated depreciation, anyone?) to
convincing the Government to adopt Rates Capping – everything accomplished was
only possible thanks to the generous support of the tens of thousands
who have chipped in with a donation.
The
key priority next year is stopping a costly Labour/Te Pāti Māori/Green
coalition of tax and spend chaos. Will
you consider chipping-in to our 2026 fighting fund with an end of year
donation?
So from the
whole team, wishing you and your family a very Merry Christmas and a
happy New Year. 🍾
 Thank you for standing with
us.
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Jordan
Williams
Executive Director
New Zealand
Taxpayers’ Union
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PS. The Taxpayers’ Union has had some
amazing successes this year - from overturning the Ute Tax 2.0 to
securing rates caps for all, we’re making sure that your money stays
where it belongs - in your pockets. 2026 is going to be a huge year as
we fight off the threat of Labour/Te Pāti Māori/Greens coalition, and
their radical plans to spend hard and tax even harder. We
can't do it alone.
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