[1]Swing LeftSwing Left
Hi John,
A few weeks ago, Republican Senator Joni Ernst announced she’s not seeking
re-election. She understood the political reality—Republicans are deeply
unpopular right now, especially after voting for the “Big Beautiful Bill”
that sold out working families. With this news, it’s clearer than ever
that Democrats have a real opportunity to take back the House next year.
As always, Swing Left’s goal is to direct grassroots time and resources to
the districts that will have the biggest impact on our ability to help
Democrats flip the House in 2026. That includes two swing districts we’re
targeting in Iowa, as well as 20 more in states all over the country.
[ [link removed] ]Read on to learn more about these Iowa swing districts, and then
consider splitting a donation between Swing Left and all 22 of our target
races to help Democrats win the House.
Iowa’s 1st District was the slimmest victory for Republicans in 2024 U.S.
House elections, with GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks winning by just
799 votes.
* Despite Trump carrying the district by 8 points in 2024, Miller-Meeks
significantly underperformed—proof that a strong Democratic campaign
can absolutely win.
* Since then, Democrats have already flipped a state senate seat inside
the district—a big piece of evidence showing the momentum here is
real.
* Plus, independent analysts like the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s
Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections have all rated this district as a
toss-up.
Iowa’s 3rd District is the least GOP-leaning of the state’s four
districts, with a significant number of voters unaffiliated with either
party—meaning turnout will decide who wins here in 2026.
* The district is so competitive that current GOP Rep. Zach Nunn even
weighed running for governor rather than risk another close fight for
re-election. But after a conversation with Donald Trump, it was
Trump—not Nunn—who announced that he would stay and run again in
IA-03, shutting down Nunn’s gubernatorial ambitions.
* In 2022, multiple Democrats running statewide won this district, even
in a tough year for the party. That shows a clear pathway to victory
here—if we invest early.
* Similar to the 1st District, multiple independent analysts have rated
this district as a toss-up or “Lean Republican.”
These districts were already winnable before, and the news about Senator
Ernst’s retirement just confirms it. Our path to flipping the House looks
stronger than ever.
That’s why it’s so important that we meet this moment. We need to invest
early in voter contact and ensure that the eventual Democratic nominees in
the districts with the potential to flip the House have the resources to
hit the ground running as soon as their primaries are over.
[ [link removed] ]By splitting a donation between Swing Left and each of our 22 target
races nationwide, including both of our target districts in Iowa, you can
help Democrats flip the House in next year’s midterms and put a real check
on the MAGA agenda.
[ [link removed] ]Donate Now »
Thank you as always for everything you do,
The Swing Left Team
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