With Sen. Joni Ernst choosing not to seek re-election, Republicans are now staring at a messy, wide-open primary in the Senate race.
Hi John,
A few weeks ago, Republican Senator Joni Ernst announced she’s not seeking re-election. She understood the political reality—Republicans are deeply unpopular right now, especially after voting for the “Big Beautiful Bill” that sold out working families. With this news, it’s clearer than ever that Democrats have a real opportunity to take back the House next year.
As always, Swing Left’s goal is to direct grassroots time and resources to the districts that will have the biggest impact on our ability to help Democrats flip the House in 2026. That includes two swing districts we’re targeting in Iowa, as well as 20 more in states all over the country.
Read on to learn more about these Iowa swing districts, and then consider splitting a donation between Swing Left and all 22 of our target races to help Democrats win the House.
Iowa’s 1st District was the slimmest victory for Republicans in 2024 U.S. House elections, with GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks winning by just 799 votes.
- Despite Trump carrying the district by 8 points in 2024, Miller-Meeks significantly underperformed—proof that a strong Democratic campaign can absolutely win.
- Since then, Democrats have already flipped a state senate seat inside the district—a big piece of evidence showing the momentum here is real.
- Plus, independent analysts like the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections have all rated this district as a toss-up.
Iowa’s 3rd District is the least GOP-leaning of the state’s four districts, with a significant number of voters unaffiliated with either party—meaning turnout will decide who wins here in 2026.
- The district is so competitive that current GOP Rep. Zach Nunn even weighed running for governor rather than risk another close fight for re-election. But after a conversation with Donald Trump, it was Trump—not Nunn—who announced that he would stay and run again in IA-03, shutting down Nunn’s gubernatorial ambitions.
- In 2022, multiple Democrats running statewide won this district, even in a tough year for the party. That shows a clear pathway to victory here—if we invest early.
- Similar to the 1st District, multiple independent analysts have rated this district as a toss-up or “Lean Republican.”
These districts were already winnable before, and the news about Senator Ernst’s retirement just confirms it. Our path to flipping the House looks stronger than ever.
That’s why it’s so important that we meet this moment. We need to invest early in voter contact and ensure that the eventual Democratic nominees in the districts with the potential to flip the House have the resources to hit the ground running as soon as their primaries are over.
By splitting a donation between Swing Left and each of our 22 target races nationwide, including both of our target districts in Iowa, you can help Democrats flip the House in next year’s midterms and put a real check on the MAGA agenda.
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Thank you as always for everything you do,
The Swing Left Team
