Policy Currents | The newsletter for policy people
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** Sept. 25, 2025
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What Do China's Demographic Trends Mean for the Future?
China has experienced a dramatic decline in fertility over the last several decades. In fact, by 2024, its fertility rate had dropped to the world's second-lowest level. China now faces a rapid transition to an aged society.
A new RAND report--the first in a series on demographics in China--considers what these trends might mean for the country's future, including potential implications for China's military, its economy, and the security of the Chinese Communist Party regime. This analysis can help inform Washington's approach to managing U.S.-China relations.
Here are some key takeaways:
- There are minimal immediate concerns for the size of China's military, but more-significant challenges could emerge in the decades ahead.
- Beijing may deepen its alliances with Russia and Iran, partly to counter concerns about the future size of its military.
- Demographic changes may strain government finances, increase the costs of social insurance programs, and affect China's capacity for innovation.
- Beyond affecting the well-being of China's population, these implications may in turn threaten regime security.
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Rethinking Social and Economic Policy in the Age of AI
Policymakers are grappling with how to optimize the benefits of AI while upholding safety, data privacy, and worker well-being. A new series of RAND publications may help inform their decisions by outlining opportunities, challenges, and trade-offs presented by AI adoption. The authors explore the potential effects on key sectors of the economy, the macroeconomic implications, what AI means for the social contract, and more.
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Israel Can No Longer Wish Palestine Away
Earlier this week, ten more countries formally recognized a Palestinian state. Israel responded defiantly. According to RAND's Shira Efron, this dynamic does not serve Palestinian or Israeli interests. But some good could still come from this, assuming leaders on both sides of the conflict look beyond the symbolism and other countries position their recognition of Palestine as part of a more holistic path forward. "In reality," Efron writes, "the gap between what Israel wants and what international actors hope for can be bridged."
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** RAND Recommends
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- RAND's Ryan McBain discusses the promise and perils of empathy in AI systems.
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- "Minilateralism" could help boost shipbuilding and address NATO's maritime readiness gap, says RAND Europe's Nicolas Jouan.
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- A security deal between Israel and Syria could remove one major flashpoint in the Middle East, says RAND's Raphael Cohen. However, other regional tensions will continue to shape the broader security picture.
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** Events
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RAND Europe Foresight Forum
Monday, October 13, 2025 (London)
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China's Economic Future
Tuesday, October 14, 2025 (London)
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An Examination of Migration in Afghanistan
Wednesday, October 22, 2025 (Online)
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The 'Big Shift' from Hospitals to Communities
Thursday, November 6, 2025 (Online)
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** Policy Minded, RAND's Flagship Podcast
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On Policy Minded, we pick the brains of the world's top policy experts. In each episode, RAND researchers join us for conversations that go beyond the headlines--bringing you insights you can't find anywhere else.
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