What Do China's Demographic Trends Mean for the Future?

China has experienced a dramatic decline in fertility over the last several decades. In fact, by 2024, its fertility rate had dropped to the world’s second-lowest level. China now faces a rapid transition to an aged society.

A new RAND report—the first in a series on demographics in China—considers what these trends might mean for the country’s future, including potential implications for China’s military, its economy, and the security of the Chinese Communist Party regime. This analysis can help inform Washington’s approach to managing U.S.-China relations.

Here are some key takeaways:

• There are minimal immediate concerns for the size of China's military, but more-significant challenges could emerge in the decades ahead.
• Beijing may deepen its alliances with Russia and Iran, partly to counter concerns about the future size of its military.
• Demographic changes may strain government finances, increase the costs of social insurance programs, and affect China’s capacity for innovation.
• Beyond affecting the well-being of China’s population, these implications may in turn threaten regime security.