So far, he has played off one country against another—and played on everyone’s fears. It’s a classic collective-action problem. But the ultimate winner is not the U.S.View this email in your browser [link removed]

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****AUGUST 15, 2025****

**On the

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PragerU Wants to Capitalize on PBS Defunding [link removed]

The right-wing educational resource is available for classrooms in ten states and wants to go ‘toe-to-toe’ with PBS Kids. Will teachers go for what the company has described as indoctrination?

**BY NAOMI BETHUNE** [link removed]

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Union-Buster in Chief [link removed]

Trump has surpassed Reagan in his war on workers’ rights.

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Why Republicans Are Terrified of Nonexistent Crime [link removed]

They need an excuse to violently subjugate liberal cities.

**BY RYAN COOPER ** [link removed]

****Kuttner on TAP****

**Could the rest of the world unite against Trump?**

**So far, he has played off one country against another—and played on everyone’s fears. It’s a classic collective-action problem. But the ultimate winner is not the U.S.**

You might think, by now, that the rest of the world would be wise to Trump’s game—make extreme threats, then cut special deals, and keep other world leaders from collaborating in unified resistance. Yet the entire history of international relations is one of balance-of-power politics and shifting alliances in response to the rise of new aggressor nations. So what stops that process now?

Doubtless, the world’s leaders are in regular contact with each other, seeking a common strategy. But for the most part, they are acceding meekly to Trump’s terms.

The short answer is that they are all heavily reliant on exports to the U.S., and high tariffs would severely damage their economies. Ironically, that reliance is the fruit of nearly a century of free trade, led and modeled by the U.S. And once they get down to bargaining with Trump over the details, the fine print of the actual tariffs is usually far lower than the headline numbers. But of course, it’s headlines that Trump wants. So he prevails.

Which, if any, nations have the leverage to push back and organize a concert of like-minded nations? An instructive comparison is between Brazil and India. If there is one nation in the world that might lead a common front, it is Brazil under Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Trump has made it clear that his animus against Brazil is not about trade. The U.S. actually has a trade surplus with Brazil, $7.4 billion last year. Trump wants the Brazilians to exonerate his failed dictator pal, Jair Bolsonaro, who is awaiting trial for trying to overthrow Brazil’s democracy. (All of Trump’s trade actions are illegal under U.S. law, which allows the president to unilaterally impose tariffs only in cases of extreme economic emergency. None of the other cases meets that definition—but Trump’s trade war against Brazil is even more illegal; in Trump’s own words, it is not about economics at all.)

Lula, uniquely among world leaders, is refusing to play Trump’s game. And even the nominal 50 percent tariffs that Trump has levied against Brazil are not nearly as bad as they seem, because Trump has exempted Brazilian exports that the U.S. needs, notably coffee and orange juice, aircraft, as well as eggs, where Brazilian production complements U.S. short supply.

Trump’s executive order on Brazil allowed 694 individual exemptions, covering around 43 percent of the total $42.3 billion of Brazilian exports to the U.S. in 2024. According to the

**Financial Times** [link removed], Brazil relies on other exports to the U.S. for only about 3.7 percent of its GDP.

So while other world leaders bow and scrape, Lula has told Trump what he can do with his tariffs. The problem is that Brazil is a unique case—a nation with a tough social democratic leader who has strong support of his citizens against an outrageous incursion against Brazil’s sovereignty, as well as an economy that can survive Trump’s sanctions.

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In early July, Lula hosted a summit conference of the so-called BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). If there were any nucleus of a global counterforce to Trump, BRICS should be it. But the BRICS group was a lot more unified a decade ago. **The communiqué issued on July 6** [link removed] by the BRICS leaders plus heads of six other large emerging economies mentioned a wide range of global issues, including peace and security, Global South collaboration, climate action, Gaza, and governance of AI. Conspicuous by its absence was the subject of tariffs.

India presents a poignant contrast to Brazil. Trump has punished India by imposing a 25 percent tariff as of July 1, then last week doubled it to 50 percent as punishment for Indian purchases of Russian oil, which Trump contends are helping fuel Russia’s war in Ukraine. (This policy itself is incoherent at a time when Trump’s own line against Putin is softening.)

But although Indian Prime Minister **Narendra Modi has spoken bravely** [link removed] about a “self-reliant India,” a theme that dates back to Gandhi, India since Gandhi has become heavily reliant on exports. Loss of the U.S. export market, unlike in the case of Brazil, would be a catastrophe for India.

So Trump’s strategy of divide and rule persists. But to what end?

All of this represents a major victory for one nation—and it is not the United States of America. China under Xi Jinping, unlike Trump, has a patient and coherent grand strategy, and China will gradually fill this geopolitical and economic vacuum. China is supposed to be Trump’s top nemesis, but Trump keeps cutting special deals with U.S. corporations such as Nvidia and AMD at the expense of U.S. security, and he just **extended his own deadline for a deal with China** [link removed] for another 90 days, displaying his own weakness.

So if the rest of the world does unite against the United States, it will be under Chinese leadership and hegemony. Quite a legacy for Trump.

**~ ROBERT KUTTNER**

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