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You might think, by now, that the rest of the world would be wise to Trump’s game—make extreme threats, then cut special deals, and keep other world leaders from collaborating in unified resistance. Yet the entire history of international relations is one of balance-of-power politics and shifting alliances in response to the rise of new aggressor nations. So what stops that process now?
Doubtless, the world’s leaders are in regular contact with each other, seeking a common strategy. But for the most part, they are acceding meekly to Trump’s terms.
The short answer is that they are all heavily reliant on exports to the U.S., and high tariffs would severely damage their economies. Ironically, that reliance is the fruit of nearly a century of free trade, led and modeled by the U.S. And once they get down to bargaining with Trump over the details, the fine print of the actual tariffs is usually far lower than the headline numbers. But of course, it’s headlines that Trump wants. So he prevails.
Which, if any, nations have the leverage to push back and organize a concert of like-minded nations? An instructive comparison is between Brazil and India. If there is one nation in the world that might lead a common front, it is Brazil under Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
Trump has made it clear that his animus against Brazil is not about trade. The U.S. actually has a trade surplus with Brazil, $7.4 billion last year. Trump wants the Brazilians to exonerate his failed dictator pal, Jair Bolsonaro, who is awaiting trial for trying to overthrow Brazil’s democracy. (All of Trump’s trade actions are illegal under U.S. law, which allows the president to unilaterally impose tariffs only in cases of extreme economic emergency. None of the other cases meets that definition—but Trump’s trade war against Brazil is even more illegal; in Trump’s own words, it is not about economics at all.)
Lula, uniquely among world leaders, is refusing to play Trump’s game. And even the nominal 50 percent tariffs that Trump has levied against Brazil are not nearly as bad as they seem, because Trump has exempted Brazilian exports that the U.S. needs, notably coffee and orange juice, aircraft, as well as eggs, where Brazilian production complements U.S. short supply.
Trump’s executive order on Brazil allowed 694 individual exemptions, covering around 43 percent of the total $42.3 billion of Brazilian exports to the U.S. in 2024. According to the Financial Times, Brazil relies on other exports to the U.S. for only about 3.7 percent of its GDP.
So while other world leaders bow and scrape, Lula has told Trump what he can do with his tariffs. The problem is that Brazil is a unique case—a nation with a tough social democratic leader who has strong support of his citizens against an outrageous incursion against Brazil’s sovereignty, as well as an economy that can survive Trump’s sanctions. |
