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Happy Monday Friend,

This month's Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll has just dropped, and it's not good news for the Government.

TL:DR: it's a hung Parliament, with both the centre-right and centre-left blocs achieving 61 seats in this poll. 

Also in this addition, some economic home truths for Nicola Willis, and the brouhaha at our student-led Wellington Mayoral debate.

Let's get into it.

NEW POLL: Hung Parliament, cost of living voters' most pressing issue 💥🗳

After a run of bad economic data and headlines, it's all reflected in today's Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll with the Nats now behind the Labour Party in the party vote.

Compared to last month's poll, Labour is up 2.0 points to 33.6%, while National is down 2.1 points to 31.8%. The Greens are up 0.4 points to 9.8%, while ACT are down 0.5 points to 8.6%. NZ First are down 2.0 points to 7.8%, while Te Pāti Māori is down 0.3 points to 3.2%.



Converting these results to seats in Parliament, Labour gain 4 seats to 43, while National drop 2 to 40. The Greens remain on 12 seats, and ACT remain on 11 seats. NZ First drops 2 seats to 10, while Te Pāti Māori remains on 6.️



The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 61 is down 4 seats from last month. The combined seats for the Centre-Left is up 4 seats to 61. On these numbers, with the Centre-Right and Centre-Left blocs tied, there would be a hung Parliament.

Now let's turn to preferred PM, and here it's also a draw. Christopher Luxon is up from last month to 20.2% (+0.5 points), while Chris Hipkins is up to 20.2% (+0.6 points). Winston Peters is down 1.1 points to 8.2%, Chlöe Swarbrick is up 1.0 point to 8.0%, and David Seymour is up 0.5 points to 6.2%.

For more details on the poll, including what voters told the pollsters what their "most important voting issue" is, head over to our website. <[link removed]>

Luxon agrees: "It's the economy stupid!" 💸

In his interview with Mike Hoskings this morning, the Prime Minister said this poor poll is as a result of 'tough economic times'. No kidding! 

As part of this month's poll, we had Curia also ask voters their views on Nicola Willis's economic management.

We'll be releasing those results later in the week, but I can tell you they're not good for Willis. As much as Luxon and Willis have talked about going for growth, they've certainly not got growth. And it is hurting them in the polls.

So it was timely that just prior to getting the results, Taxpayers' Union Chair, Hon. Ruth Richardson dished out some fiscal home truths comparing the Government's approach to the economy to its recent NCEA/education announcements.

Does Willis need a swig of Stanford's brave pills? 💊

Education Minister Erica Stanford showed the country what leadership looks like – fronting up on NCEA reform, telling it straight, and willing to take the political risk to get her hands around the crisis within education – and the result? Respect, even from the likes of the teachers' unions. 

Meanwhile, in Nicola Willis' office, the warning from Treasury is flashing red like a Christmas tree: Government spending is still near the COVID-peak, the ageing population, exploding health and super costs, and a debt track that’s as sustainable as a chocolate teapot. Add in the Alpine Fault (when, not if, it slips) and the bill for the clean-up will make current debt projections look like pocket change. Right now, we simply couldn’t afford it.

Speaking to the "report of home truths" issued by Treasury last week, Taxpayers' Union Chair Ruth Richardson didn't hold back when interviewed by Heather du Plessis-Allan. <[link removed]>

<[link removed]>

Around the world, leaders who tell voters the uncomfortable truth are being rewarded (à la Javier Milei). Those who dodge it end up like the UK Conservatives — utterly and totally flattened (and trust me, I saw first hand what that election loss looked like 😬).

So take it from me. If the Government's economic team don't want to limit the Government to one term – and based on today's poll, that's now possibly 50/50 – Nicola Willis needs to choose a better path, fast.

The Ruth interview is popcorn worthy. <[link removed]>In Heather's words, "Everything. She. Said. Was. Right"

World champs in wasting cash? NZ’s infrastructure shambles 🏗️💸



You wouldn't think it looking around, but New Zealand is pumping serious money into infrastructure – right up there in the top 10 percent of OECD countries for spend as a share of GDP. But despite the big spend, we are in the bottom 10 percent in terms of value delivered.

Put another way: Kiwi taxpayers are being sold a raw deal. We're paying more than the rest of the world, but getting the least. While Councils (and central government) want to plough ever more money into infrastructure, the real issue is one of value for money. 

According to Nick Clark at the NZ Initiative <[link removed]>, between 2010 and 2020, we were one of the biggest infrastructure spenders among advanced nations. And by 2025, that capital spend sat at around $20  billion per year (that's about $9,700 per household), forecast to climb to over $30  billion (or around $14,700 per household) by the 2050s. Yet according to the Infrastructure Commission, returns are abysmal.

What’s going wrong? According to the Infrastructure Commission, it comes down to poor planning, weak asset management, stop‑start political cycles, and underwhelming accountability.

Friend, it's the last one in that list that drives all the others. And that's well within the wheelhouse of Taxpayers' Union. Watch this space...

Taxpayer-funded theatre of the absurd at LGNZ conference 🎤🙄

Regular readers of Taxpayer Update will recall the errr, noting of last year's LGNZ conference where "Trans Rock-Paper-Scissors" was allocated more time that [checks notes] the Prime Minister <[link removed]>. 👀

LGNZ's ability to read the room hasn't improved. This year, thanks to sponsorship taxpayer funded courtesy of Creative New Zealand, delegates at their recent conference were treated to a panel discussion about, you guessed it, giving away taxpayer cash for the 'y-arts'.



We can reveal that Creative NZ spent $21,958 on the panel <[link removed]>, including a $15,000 “LGNZ silver sponsorship”, plus an extra $6,958 on travel, meals, and "networking costs" for six – yes six – Creative NZ staffers.

So the next time local councils tell you they're 'focused on core business'...

Green Party caught in a web of hypocrisy 😱🕸️



Here at the Taxpayers' Union, we pride ourselves on working with any MP or Party in our effort to promote the interests of taxpayers.

When it comes to the Green Party, over the years, there have been countless examples of us singing from the same song sheet on government transparency and improving New Zealand's freedom of information laws.

So it was a kick in the guts to see that while the Greens are bemoaning about CCTV footage from commercial fishing (required to be provided to the Government under the Fisheries Act) no longer being  subject to the Official Information Act, they've withdrawn their support for the OIA to apply to Parliamentary spending!

Put another way, the Greens say it is wrong that footage taken from private operators is private, but say their own spending of your and my money should remain a state secret. 

Rather than using the OIA to bash those industries they don’t agree with, let’s get back to a principled Green Party that supports the public’s right to know where their money is going.

If any Green MPs believe transparency is still a virtue, they should lead by example and support extending the Official Information Act to Parliament. Open the Books for all, not just political targets. <[link removed]>

You can sign our Open The Books petition here. <[link removed]>

Sparks Fly at Generation Screwed’s Wellington Mayoral Throwdown 🔥

Last week, we mentioned our affiliated campus group, Generation Screwed <[link removed]>, was hosting a mayoral debate in Wellington. You can watch the full debate here. <[link removed]>

<[link removed]>

The five candidates – Andrew Little, Ray Chung, Alex Baker, Kelvin Hastie, and Karl Tiefenbacher – were real sports, and the students in the audience were genuinely interested in how each candidate could improve our city (and where their favourite late-night food spot was).

It was a resounding success – with a packed-out lecture theatre, a wait list that could have filled a second room, and… a fringe candidate who forgot to RSVP but refused to leave the building when not given the stage (and his protests that he was very busy and important).

You can read about the bruhaha here. <[link removed]>

As always, thank you for your support Friend,

<[link removed]>


Tory Relf
New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union
Ps. I felt like a proud mum watching Gen Screwed pull off such a successful debate last week. To support their efforts on campuses across the country, please consider donating <[link removed]>. And if you are, or have, a student who wants to get involved, visit GenerationScrewed.nz <[link removed]> for more information.





























In the Media:

RNZ PM Luxon on latest poll showing Labour ahead of National <[link removed]>

RNZ New political poll predicts hung Parliament <[link removed]>

NZ Herald Greens want to lead Government, Chris Hipkins not interested in ‘arguing’ with them <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZB Ruth Richardson: Former finance minister says Nicola Willis needs to 'face up' to the latest Treasury report <[link removed]>

The PostNew leaf, old wounds: Mayoral candidate blocked from meetings says he's changed <[link removed]>

StuffWellington mayoral candidate banned from future events after run-in with Taxpayer’s Union <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZBHeather du Plessis-Allan Drive: Full Show Podcast, 7 August 2025 <[link removed]>

StuffWatch: Wellington mayoral candidate banned from Taxpayers’ Union-run events <[link removed]>

RNZWellington mayoral hopeful Rob Goulden banned from Taxpayers' Union debates <[link removed]>

NZ HeraldWellington mayoral candidate Rob Goulden escorted by security from debate for alleged aggressive behaviour <[link removed]>

NZ HeraldSteep rate increases for Auckland’s rural communities amid cost-of-living crisis <[link removed]>

Newstalk ZBNews Fix: Afternoon Edition 6 August 2025 <[link removed]>

InterestThe New Zealand Tax Podcast: The tax system’s dirty secret. And the Greens and Taxpayers Union’s unlikely alliance <[link removed]>

KiwiblogThe Integrity Institute Trust Deed <[link removed]>

Waikato TimesElected unopposed - the Waikato councillors who will walk into a job <[link removed]>

The Valley ProfileToby Adams retains Top 10 spot in mayoral poll <[link removed]>

Bay of Plenty TimesLocal elections 2025: Who’s running in Western Bay of Plenty and how to vote <[link removed]>

Stuff‘Too much V and Red Bull’ sent former ACT Party senior staffer to hospital on election trail <[link removed]>

Rotorua Daily PostLocal elections 2025: Who’s running for Rotorua Lakes Council and how to vote <[link removed]>

Bassett, Brash & HideGRAHAM ADAMS: Peters and Seymour tussle over ‘Maorification’ <[link removed]>

New Zealand Taxpayers' Union Inc. · 117 Lambton Quay, Level 4, Wellington 6011, New Zealand
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