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Happy
Monday Friend,
This
month's Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll has just dropped, and it's not
good news for the Government.
TL:DR: it's
a hung Parliament, with both the centre-right and centre-left blocs
achieving 61 seats in this poll.
Also in
this addition, some economic home truths for Nicola Willis, and the
brouhaha at our student-led Wellington Mayoral debate.
Let's get
into it.
NEW POLL: Hung Parliament, cost of living
voters' most pressing issue 💥🗳
After a run of bad economic data and headlines,
it's all reflected in today's Taxpayers' Union-Curia
Poll with the Nats now behind the Labour Party in the party
vote.
Compared to last month's poll, Labour is up 2.0
points to 33.6%, while National is down 2.1 points to 31.8%. The
Greens are up 0.4 points to 9.8%, while ACT are down 0.5 points to
8.6%. NZ First are down 2.0 points to 7.8%, while Te Pāti Māori is
down 0.3 points to 3.2%.

Converting these results to seats in Parliament,
Labour gain 4 seats to 43, while National drop 2 to 40. The Greens
remain on 12 seats, and ACT remain on 11 seats. NZ First drops 2 seats
to 10, while Te Pāti Māori remains on 6.️

The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right
of 61 is down 4 seats from last month. The combined seats for the
Centre-Left is up 4 seats to 61. On these numbers, with the
Centre-Right and Centre-Left blocs tied, there would be a hung
Parliament.
Now let's turn to preferred PM, and here it's
also a draw. Christopher Luxon is up from last month to 20.2% (+0.5
points), while Chris Hipkins is up to 20.2% (+0.6 points). Winston
Peters is down 1.1 points to 8.2%, Chlöe Swarbrick is up 1.0 point to
8.0%, and David Seymour is up 0.5 points to 6.2%.
For
more details on the poll, including what voters told the pollsters
what their "most important voting issue" is, head over to our
website.
Luxon
agrees: "It's the economy stupid!" 💸
In his
interview with Mike Hoskings this morning, the Prime Minister said
this poor poll is as a result of 'tough economic times'. No
kidding!
As part of
this month's poll, we had Curia also ask voters their views
on Nicola Willis's economic management.
We'll be
releasing those results later in the week, but I can tell you they're
not good for Willis. As much as Luxon and Willis have talked
about going for growth, they've certainly not got growth. And it is
hurting them in the polls.
So it was
timely that just prior to getting the results, Taxpayers'
Union Chair, Hon. Ruth Richardson dished out some fiscal home truths
comparing the Government's approach to the economy to its recent
NCEA/education announcements.
Does Willis need a swig of Stanford's brave
pills? 💊
Education
Minister Erica Stanford showed the country what leadership looks like
– fronting up on NCEA reform, telling it straight, and willing to take
the political risk to get her hands around the crisis within education
– and the result? Respect, even from the likes of the teachers'
unions.
Meanwhile, in Nicola Willis' office, the warning
from Treasury is flashing red like a Christmas tree:
Government spending is still near the
COVID-peak, the ageing population, exploding health and super costs,
and a debt track that’s as sustainable as a chocolate teapot. Add in
the Alpine Fault (when, not if, it slips) and the bill for the
clean-up will make current debt projections look like pocket change.
Right now, we simply couldn’t afford it.
Speaking to the
"report of home truths" issued by Treasury last week, Taxpayers' Union
Chair Ruth Richardson didn't hold back when interviewed by Heather du
Plessis-Allan.

Around the
world, leaders who tell voters the uncomfortable truth are being
rewarded (à la Javier Milei). Those who dodge it end up
like the UK Conservatives — utterly and totally flattened (and trust
me, I saw first hand what that election loss looked like
😬).
So take it
from me. If the Government's economic team don't want to limit the
Government to one term – and based on today's poll, that's now
possibly 50/50 – Nicola Willis needs to choose a better path,
fast.
The
Ruth interview is popcorn worthy. In Heather's words,
"Everything. She. Said. Was.
Right"
World champs in wasting cash? NZ’s
infrastructure shambles 🏗️💸

You wouldn't think it looking around, but New
Zealand is pumping serious money into infrastructure – right up there
in the top 10 percent of OECD countries for spend as a share of GDP.
But despite the big spend, we are in the bottom 10 percent in terms of
value delivered.
Put another way: Kiwi taxpayers are
being sold a raw deal. We're paying more than the rest of the world,
but getting the least. While Councils (and central government) want to
plough ever more money into infrastructure, the real issue is one of
value for money.
According
to Nick Clark at the NZ Initiative, between 2010 and 2020,
we were one of the biggest infrastructure spenders among advanced
nations. And by 2025, that capital spend sat at around $20 billion
per year (that's about $9,700 per household), forecast to climb to
over $30 billion (or around $14,700 per household) by the 2050s. Yet
according to the Infrastructure Commission, returns are
abysmal.
What’s going wrong? According to the
Infrastructure Commission, it comes down to poor planning, weak asset
management, stop‑start political cycles, and underwhelming
accountability.
Friend, it's the last one in that list that
drives all the others. And that's well within the wheelhouse
of Taxpayers' Union. Watch this space...
Taxpayer-funded theatre of the absurd at
LGNZ conference 🎤🙄
Regular readers of Taxpayer Update will
recall the errr, noting of
last year's LGNZ conference where "Trans Rock-Paper-Scissors" was
allocated more time that [checks notes] the Prime Minister.
👀
LGNZ's ability to read the room hasn't improved.
This year, thanks to sponsorship taxpayer funded courtesy of Creative
New Zealand, delegates at their recent conference were treated to a
panel discussion about, you guessed it, giving away taxpayer cash for
the 'y-arts'.

We can reveal that Creative NZ spent
$21,958 on the panel, including a $15,000 “LGNZ silver
sponsorship”, plus an extra $6,958 on travel, meals, and "networking
costs" for six – yes six – Creative NZ staffers.
So the next time local councils tell you they're
'focused on core business'...
Green Party caught in a web of hypocrisy
😱🕸️

Here at the Taxpayers' Union, we pride ourselves
on working with any MP or Party in our effort to promote the interests
of taxpayers.
When it comes to the Green Party, over the years,
there have been countless examples of us singing from the same song
sheet on government transparency and improving New Zealand's freedom
of information laws.
So it was a kick in the guts to see that while
the Greens are bemoaning about CCTV footage from commercial fishing
(required to be provided to the Government under the Fisheries Act) no
longer being subject to the Official Information Act, they've
withdrawn their support for the OIA to apply to Parliamentary
spending!
Put another way, the Greens say it is wrong
that footage taken from private operators is private, but say
their own spending of your and my money should remain a state
secret.
Rather than using the OIA to bash those
industries they don’t agree with, let’s get back to a principled Green
Party that supports the public’s right to know where their money is
going.
If
any Green MPs believe transparency is still a virtue, they should lead
by example and support extending the Official Information Act to
Parliament. Open
the Books for all, not just political targets.
You can sign our
Open The Books petition here.
Sparks Fly at Generation Screwed’s
Wellington Mayoral Throwdown 🔥
Last week, we mentioned our affiliated campus
group, Generation
Screwed, was hosting a mayoral debate in Wellington. You
can watch the full debate here.

The five candidates – Andrew Little, Ray Chung,
Alex Baker, Kelvin Hastie, and Karl Tiefenbacher – were real sports,
and the students in the audience were genuinely interested in how each
candidate could improve our city (and where their favourite
late-night food spot was).
It was a resounding success – with a
packed-out lecture theatre, a wait list that could have filled a
second room, and… a fringe candidate who forgot to RSVP but refused to
leave the building when not given the stage (and his protests that he
was very busy and important).
You can read about
the bruhaha here.
As always,
thank you for your support Friend,

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 Tory
Relf New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union
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Ps. I felt like a proud mum watching Gen
Screwed pull off such a successful debate last week. To support their
efforts on campuses across the country, please
consider donating. And if you are, or have, a student who wants to
get involved, visit GenerationScrewed.nz
for more information.
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