Policy Currents | The newsletter for policy people
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** July 31, 2025
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Charting New Waters in the Arctic?
The Arctic is warming nearly four times faster than the rest of the world. In fact, climate models project that the Central Arctic Ocean (CAO) may soon become ice-free in summer. This could open a new route between Asia and Europe over the North Pole.
A seasonally navigable CAO could enable maritime commercial activities farther north than ever before. In a new report, RAND experts explore how global actors might use this new access for economic, political, and military gain.
Drawing on insights from climate models, literature, and expert interviews, the authors address factors that could drive or inhibit use of the CAO, what these activities might look like, and when they might be possible. The researchers also examine which countries and groups might use the CAO first or benefit the most.
A key finding is that new activities in the CAO will not happen all at once. For instance, fishing will not occur before the end of a moratorium in 2037. Cargo shipping will not occur in high volumes before there is reliable access for at least two months at a time. And new Arctic mining will develop incrementally.
The most plausible scenario in the next 25 years is one of limited activity, mainly seasonal shipping and tourism. These changes are likely to unfold in a staggered way as ice melt continues to expand windows of opportunity for human activity in the Arctic.
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What It Takes to Achieve Peace in Ukraine
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has accelerated despite recent U.S. diplomatic efforts. Writing in the New York Times, RAND's Samuel Charap describes historical examples of how negotiations to resolve major conflicts have been painstaking and protracted. While the White House's insistence on ending the war has already produced some important results, this history underscores the need to empower a professional team of negotiators for the long haul. "Negotiations to end the war in Ukraine have not failed," Charap says. "They haven't yet properly begun."
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No Need to Fear a "Space Pearl Harbor"
Some U.S. defense analysts have warned of a potential "Space Pearl Harbor." They worry that the military relies too much on a few vulnerable satellites that could be tempting targets for China during a crisis or conflict. But RAND's Zachary Burdette says that the challenge may be more manageable than some analysts fear. The United States should bolster its space systems to counter China, but trends suggest that a decisive knockout blow is out of reach for both nations.
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** RAND Recommends
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- RAND's Marianne Lu and Nick Shafer of the Atlantic Council discuss how the United States could leverage its AI deals with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
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- In a podcast by The Telegraph, RAND's Timothy Heath says that the enormous amount of time China's military recruits spend on political indoctrination has a big opportunity cost.
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- Speaking to Newsweek, RAND's Rebecca Lucas describes the surge in Turkey's offerings on the global arms market.
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