The Arctic is warming nearly four times faster than the rest of the world. In fact, climate models project that the Central Arctic Ocean (CAO) may soon become ice-free in summer. This could open a new route between Asia and Europe over the North Pole.
A seasonally navigable CAO could enable maritime commercial activities farther north than ever before. In a new report, RAND experts explore how global actors might use this new access for economic, political, and military gain.
Drawing on insights from climate models, literature, and expert interviews, the authors address factors that could drive or inhibit use of the CAO, what these activities might look like, and when they might be possible. The researchers also examine which countries and groups might use the CAO first or benefit the most.
A key finding is that new activities in the CAO will not happen all at once. For instance, fishing will not occur before the end of a moratorium in 2037. Cargo shipping will not occur in high volumes before there is reliable access for at least two months at a time. And new Arctic mining will develop incrementally.
The most plausible scenario in the next 25 years is one of limited activity, mainly seasonal shipping and tourism. These changes are likely to unfold in a staggered way as ice melt continues to expand windows of opportunity for human activity in the Arctic.
