Web Version [link removed] | Update Preferences [link removed] [link removed] California Energy Price Data

for June 2025

Below are the monthly updates from the most current June 2025 fuel price data (GasBuddy.com) and April 2025 electricity and natural gas price data (US Energy Information Administration). To view additional data and analysis related to the California economy visit our website at [[link removed]].

California average prices for commercial and industrial natural gas worsened compared to the other contiguous states, while the other rankings were unchanged. California again had the highest costs (12-month moving average) for all end user electricity rates, gasoline, and diesel.

Gasoline & Diesel Costs Going Higher

While the data below reflects June prices, state actions to raise the cost of fuels took hold on July 1. State excise tax was raised on both gasoline (1.6 cents) and diesel (1.2 cents). With this latest increase, the gasoline excise tax has been increased by 106% since 2017, and the diesel excise tax by 29.4%.

The Air Board’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) changes also went into effect in July, but at least in the initial week have yet to show a significant effect on fuel prices. Using the daily prices from the Automobile Association, the spread between California and US gasoline prices in the first week of implementation has been relatively consistent at about $1.40 a gallon. The spread for diesel, however, has shown a slight increase from $1.42 at the end of June to $1.46 in the most recent results. In both cases, these are very initial reads that are still far too preliminary to show any definite trend. Aviation fuel prices, which will also be affected by LCFS, are not tracked in this data source.

These results likely reflect two factors. First, there is a substantial excess inventory of available credits. As this supply is worked down, prices are likely to show a stronger rise. Second, carbon markets in general have been soft recently, largely in response to increasing uncertainty over the future direction of the underlying regulations in the US and other countries. This factor in particular affected the LCFS credits due to uncertainty over the Air Board’s regulation package, along with continuing uncertainty over the future of the state’s Cap & Trade program as it moves from being a climate change program to just another revenue source to offset the state’s rising budget deficits.

Using the Air Board monthly results, the underlying LCFS credit prices have overall been declining in recent months and took a steep dip in June during the administrative tolling period for the Air Board’s regulations. The June results just posted the lowest credit price since 2015.

Credit volume, which had been trending up, similarly showed a sharp drop in June.

The LCFS cost component in both gasoline and diesel prices consequently began from a relatively low point at the end of June, with the OPIS estimate of the LCFS component roughly back to levels last seen in summer 2024. The new LCFS regulations, however, still had an effect. Applying the Air Board’s new requirements and carbon intensity values, the OPIS calculations saw the LCFS per gallon estimates jump by over 50% on the first day of implementation alone. As increases at this level work through the system and as the credit market recovers as the backlog of credits is reduced, Californians are still likely to see significant price increases in the coming months.

The earlier price signal in diesel also reflects current market conditions. Nationally and globally, diesel production [[link removed]] is struggling to rebuild stocks with current expectations that tight supplies will lead to much higher transport costs for food and other goods later this year. California’s LCFS addition to this price pressure would consequently accelerate this likely source of inflation within the state.

The extent of the overall LCFS cost pass-through for both gasoline and diesel (and aviation fuels) remain to be seen. Air Board staff continue to insist their rules will not have a major effect on prices. The occasional academic commentor given space in articles on this and similar cost issues—such as the one found by LA Times [[link removed]] to comment on the currently tolled climate superfund bills—insist that market participants attempting to raise prices to incorporate this type of cost would be undercut by others willing to step in with alternative supplies. These arguments, however, fail to reflect California conditions in many respects.

First, the alternative supplier hypothesis is likely true for fully functioning markets. But California’s fuel markets are not fully functioning. They are heavily restricted by what fuels can be sold, and further isolated from national and global supplies by the absence of required transportation capacity and high regulation-driven costs of using what capacity does exist. California’s market instead has been altered and repeatedly revised by regulation to almost ensure that such costs will be passed on in order to maintain the economic survival of what supply does remain to service the state.

Second, this hypothesis assumes there is someone available to provide additional supplies. There is not. Any such supplier would still be bound by the added costs of LCFS, California formulations, Cap & Trade, and the other state-imposed additions to selling these products in the state. What supplies that are available primarily now come from Singapore, Japan, and South Korea, all of which are many weeks of tanker time removed from California and none of which produce in amounts capable of serving California’s needs. And even when the supply is available, the question still remains of which supplier would be willing to risk exposing themselves to the potential of future liabilities such as represented by the climate change superfund proposals that remain alive as two-year bills?

Inflation 2.7% Increase Since November 2024

For the 12 months ending April, the California CPI rose 2.7%, edging down from 2.8% for the year ending March. In the same period, the US CPI went to 2.3% in April from 2.4% in November. Using the same Department of Finance weighting formula, Food at Home (groceries) rose 2.0% in California compared to 2.0% for the US. Food Away from Home (restaurants and takeout) rose 5.1% compared to the US at 3.9%.

California vs. Rest of US Fuel Price Gap at 52% Premium $1.59 Price Per Gallon Above Other States (CA Average)

The June average price per gallon of regular gasoline in California eased 21 cents from May to $4.64. The California regulatory and tax premium above the average for the US other than California ($3.06) eased to $1.59, a 52.0% difference.

1st Ranked by Price

In June, California had the highest gasoline price among the contiguous states and DC. Californians paid $1.95 a gallon more than consumers in Mississippi, the state with the lowest price.

California Gasoline Taxes & Fees $1.36 Total Taxes & Fees per Gallon of Gasoline

The Energy Commission apparently has pulled back from publishing data on the tax and fee components of gasoline in the state. The Gasoline Price Breakdown and Margins [[link removed]] data containing details on taxes and environmental fees was last updated for the week of March 31. The Commission has again begun updating the similar margin analysis [[link removed]] required under SB 1322, but with only partial information and with the most recent update only for April.

In the absence of current Commission data, these gasoline cost drivers are instead estimated using the new OPIS data and the other data sources and assumptions in the Commission’s method. In June, $1.36 (29.3%) of the price of a gallon of regular gasoline was paid to cover state, local, and federal taxes and fees.

California Carbon Taxes: LCFS and Cap & Trade

In June, total LCFS Cap & Trade charges incorporated in the price Californians pay for fuel eased due to the factors discussed above, while the Cap & Trade component was unchanged. The costs shown in the table are for the penultimate month-to-date numbers from the OPIS Carbon Market Report, adjusted to incorporate state and local sales tax to account for the full additional costs imposed by these regulatory fees on fuel buyers. Certain Data or Information Provided By: Oil Price Information Service, LLC. Distribution of OPIS data without permission from OPIS is prohibited.

Combining the OPIS data (without the sales tax component) with the previous Energy Commission estimates, Cap & Trade costs have been easing, while LCFS costs had been rising before the sharp dip in June. Note that both charts include both the Cap & Trade components charged at the rack and levied on production in the OPIS data, and only the rack component in the Energy Commission data.

California vs. Rest of US Diesel Price $1.58 Price Per Gallon Above Other States (CA Average)

The June average price per gallon of diesel in California rose 3 cents from May to $5.09. The California regulatory and tax premium above the average for the US other than California ($3.51) eased to $1.58, a 45.0% difference.

1st Ranked by Price

In June, California had the highest diesel price among the contiguous states and DC.

Range Between Highest and Lowest Prices by Region $1.87 Price per Gallon above Other States (Central Coast Region)

The cost premium above the US (other than California) average price for regular gasoline ranged from $1.42 in the Inland Empire Region (average June price of $4.48), to $1.87 in Central Coast Region (average June price of $4.93).

Highest/Lowest Fuel Prices by Legislative District: California Residential Electricity Price 101.9% Above Average for Rest of US

California average Residential Price for the 12 months ended April 2025 was 31.74 cents/kWh, 101.9% higher than the US average of 15.72 cents/kWh for all states other than California. California's residential prices were the highest among the contiguous states and DC.

California Residential Electric Bill 9th Ranked by Cost

For the 12 months ended April 2025, the average annual Residential electricity bill in California was $1,936, or 94.8% higher ($942) than the comparable bill in 2010 (the year the AB 32 implementation began with the Early Action items). In this same period, the average US (less CA) electricity bill for all the other states grew only 28.1% ($383).

In 2010, California had the 9th lowest residential electricity bill among the contiguous states and DC. In the latest data, it had the 9th highest.

Residential bills, however, vary widely by region. Transforming the 2022 data from the Energy Commission, estimated annual household usage is as much as 82% higher in the interior regions compared to the milder climate coastal areas, and substantially higher when comparing across counties.

$13.9b Above Average for Rest of US

For the 12 months ended April 2025, California's higher electricity prices translated into Residential ratepayers paying $13.9 billion more than the average ratepayers elsewhere in the US using the same amount of energy. Compared to the lowest cost state, California households paid $17.5 billion more.

California Commercial Electricity Price 112.8% Above Average for Rest of US

California average Commercial Price for the 12 months ended April 2025 was 25.51 cents/kWh, 112.8% higher than the US average of 11.99 cents/kWh for all states other than California. California's commercial prices were the highest among the contiguous states and DC.

California Industrial Electricity Price 183.8% Above Average for Rest of US

California average Industrial Price for the 12 months ended April 2025 was 21.88 cents/kWh, 183.8% higher than the US average of 7.71 cents/kWh for all states other than California. California's industrial prices were the highest among the contiguous states and DC.

$21.6b Above Average for Rest of US

For the 12 months ended April 2025, California's higher electricity prices translated into Commercial & Industrial ratepayers paying $21.6 billion more than ratepayers elsewhere in the US using the same amount of energy. Compared to the lowest rate states, Commercial & Industrial ratepayers paid $28.0 billion more.

California Natural Gas Prices

Average prices ($ per thousand cubic feet; 12-month moving average) for the 12 months ended April 2025 and changes from the previous 12-month period for each end user:

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