Policy Currents | The newsletter for policy people
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** June 26, 2025
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Bombing in Iran: The Uncertain Aftermath
A shaky ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues to hold as of early Thursday morning. This follows the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear sites last weekend and a retaliatory strike on Monday that Tehran intentionally telegraphed to de-escalate the situation.
But this is no time to feel relieved. "Halting hostilities does not end hostility," says RAND's Brian Michael Jenkins. Even if Iran's nuclear capabilities are stalled for now, its strategic objective remains the same: acquire nuclear weapons, destroy Israel, and dominate the Middle East.
The threat isn't limited to nuclear weapons either. Iran could use biological and cyber weapons to inflict casualties or economic damage. And although its proxy network has been weakened, Tehran could still mobilize groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis. There's also the threat of assassination, which has become more normalized in recent years, and the possibility of spontaneous attacks by individuals on American targets.
Exactly how Iran will choose to seek revenge and signal strength is unclear--and it could remain so for many years. "Even as the American news cycle moves on," Jenkins says, "Iran counts time in decades, not days."
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Checking In With America's Teachers: 2025 Survey Results
The results are in from RAND's latest State of the American Teacher survey: In 2025, teachers were more likely than similar working adults to experience poor well-being--a consistent pattern since 2021. But there were some notable improvements. For example, teachers said their average base salary was $73,000, a roughly four percent increase from last year. And the share of teachers who intended to leave their jobs fell to 16 percent in 2025 from 22 percent in 2024.
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What Are the Geopolitics of Artificial General Intelligence?
Artificial general intelligence, or AGI, is an AI that possesses human or superhuman capabilities. The emergence of AGI is not inevitable, but decisionmakers should prepare for the possibility. That's why RAND launched the Geopolitics of AGI Substack publication--a place to share insights and ideas on this critical topic. Posts will focus on AGI's potential capabilities, risks, and opportunities.
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** RAND Recommends
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- In the Associated Press, RAND's Jude Blanchette discusses why China is taking a cautious approach to the Israel-Iran conflict.
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- NATO allies are investing more in space, says RAND's Anca Agachi: "There's a lot of interest, primarily in commercial capabilities and accessing off-the-shelf capabilities."
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- A new RAND study shows that many middle and high school students are disengaged in their math classes and lack confidence in their abilities.
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** Policy Minded, RAND's Flagship Podcast
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On Policy Minded, we pick the brains of the world's top policy experts. In each episode, RAND researchers join us for conversations that go beyond the headlines--bringing you insights you can't find anywhere else.
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