A shaky ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues to hold as of early Thursday morning. This follows the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear sites last weekend and a retaliatory strike on Monday that Tehran intentionally telegraphed to de-escalate the situation.
But this is no time to feel relieved. “Halting hostilities does not end hostility,” says RAND's Brian Michael Jenkins. Even if Iran's nuclear capabilities are stalled for now, its strategic objective remains the same: acquire nuclear weapons, destroy Israel, and dominate the Middle East.
The threat isn’t limited to nuclear weapons either. Iran could use biological and cyber weapons to inflict casualties or economic damage. And although its proxy network has been weakened, Tehran could still mobilize groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis. There’s also the threat of assassination, which has become more normalized in recent years, and the possibility of spontaneous attacks by individuals on American targets.
Exactly how Iran will choose to seek revenge and signal strength is unclear—and it could remain so for many years. “Even as the American news cycle moves on,” Jenkins says, “Iran counts time in decades, not days.”
