[link removed]
CRANK Call is a monthly review of developments involving cooperation, and at times contention, among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea (the CRANKs ([link removed]) ).


** March Highlights
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** China and Russia unite in show of support for Iran on the nuclear issue
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On March 14, Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu hosted Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov and Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi for a trilateral meeting ([link removed]) in Beijing. The meeting was apparently scheduled on relatively short notice, and the timing was reportedly related to a letter President Trump had sent to Iran’s leader via intermediaries in the United Arab Emirates the previous week. Trump’s letter proposed direct talks but threatened U.S. military action if the nuclear issue was not resolved in a timely manner.

The Chinese and Russian officials made a strong show of support for Iran, marking a significant departure from the situation leading up to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) during the Obama administration. At that time, China and Russia were sitting on the other side of the table from Iran as part of the P5+1, alongside the United States and major European powers. The new Iran-China-Russia communiqué ([link removed]) emphasized Iran’s right to nuclear energy development, and said that negotiations should proceed without “unlawful” sanctions, pressure, or threats of military action. Both Russia and China have played critical roles in keeping Iran’s economy afloat under U.S. sanctions, with China buying the overwhelming majority of Iran’s oil exports
([link removed]) and Russia serving as a customer for Iran’s arms manufacturing ([link removed]) industries.

In a subsequent development in April, Russia declined to confirm ([link removed]) its willingness to take control of Iran’s stockpile of highly-enriched uranium (HEU) in the manner it did in 2015 as part of the JCPOA, with Iran expected to reject such an arrangement in its initial negotiations with the U.S. China also saw another independent “teapot” refiner sanctioned ([link removed]) by Washington on April 16 for its processing of Iranian crude oil, as well as a couple of shipping companies involved in transporting Iranian crude oil.


** China, Russia, and Iran conduct joint naval exercises
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Warships from China, Russia, and Iran conducted ([link removed]) joint naval exercises in the Gulf of Oman adjacent to the Strait of Hormuz over five days in mid-March. The exercise, called Maritime Security Belt 2025, featured live-fire gunnery practice and the simulated boarding of hijacked commercial vessels. It involved a Chinese guided missile destroyer and supply ship, two Russian corvettes, and more than ten Iranian vessels of various classes. This is the fifth consecutive year for the three navies to hold the Maritime Security Belt drills. During the exercises, vessels near the Strait of Hormuz reportedly experienced problems ([link removed]) with their navigation systems, likely due to GPS-jamming as part of the exercise.


** North Korea sends additional reinforcements to Russia
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North Korea has sent ([link removed]) approximately 3,000 more troops to Russia in January and February to join operations against Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast, according to a report ([link removed]) from South Korea’s National Intelligence Service. The new troops made up for previous losses of about 4,000 North Korean personnel estimated to have been killed or wounded already, according to the South Korean report. Other estimates have put North Korean casualties ([link removed]) lower. Very few have been captured, reportedly due to threats by the North Korean regime of harsh reprisals ([link removed]) against
soldiers’ families if they surrender ([link removed]) . North Korea has continued to supply Russia with munitions, with some recent analyses ([link removed]) suggesting that a large majority of the artillery shells currently being used by Russia are of North Korean origin. Reports in April suggest that the Ukrainian military is concerned about an impending deployment of North Korean troops into Ukraine.


** North Korean trade with China rises
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North Korea saw increased trade ([link removed]) with China in January and February compared to year-ago levels, despite the usual seasonal drop over the winter. The sectoral breakdown of the data suggests that North Korea is buying intermediate goods to be processed into finished goods. Textile imports have surged, which suggests that DPRK workers are making clothing for resale in violation of UN sanctions. In addition, construction seems to have restarted on some of the ancillary portions of the New Yalu River Bridge ([link removed]) project, specifically the customs processing facility—suggesting that the bridge may be completed and opened to facilitate increased trade. The bridge construction stalled during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and had not resumed until now.


** Links
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Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Moscow on March 31, during which he said China and Russia were “forever friends, never enemies” and praised signs of U.S.-Russian rapprochement. (Reuters ([link removed]) , Associated Press ([link removed]) , Global Times ([link removed]) )

Russian spokesmen stated that Iran has a right under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to develop a peaceful nuclear program. (Reuters ([link removed]) )

The United States seeks to “break” Russia’s alliances with both China and Iran, U.S. Special Envoy Keith Kellogg said at the Munich Security Conference. (TASS ([link removed]) , Press TV ([link removed]) )

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko met in Tehran on March 18. (Tabnak.ir ([link removed]) )

Russian Security Advisor Sergei Shoigu visited Pyongyang and met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un for over two hours to discuss the war in Ukraine. (Reuters ([link removed]) )

A North Korean ship suspected of smuggling coal in violation of UN Security Council sanctions sank after a collision with a Chinese vessel. (Radio Free Asia ([link removed]) , Newsweek ([link removed]) )

China has continued to detain and deport North Korean workers in the city of Dandong and the border region. (Daily NK ([link removed]) )

Chinese journalists have returned to North Korea after not being permitted to reside there during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. (Radio Free Asia ([link removed]) )

A second ship carrying a solid rocket fuel precursor—sodium perchlorate—departed from China bound for Iran, following a previous shipment in February. It arrived in Iran in late March. (VOA ([link removed]) , Newsweek ([link removed]) )


** Recent Analysis
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China and Russia’s Strategic Relationship Amid a Shifting Geopolitical Landscape ([link removed]) (Patricia M. Kim, Asli Aydintasbas, Angela Stent, Tara Varma, and Ali Wyne, Brookings John L. Thornton China Center)

China and Russia Will Not Be Split ([link removed]) (Michael McFaul and Evan Medeiros, Foreign Affairs)

Putting the Screws on the Partnership Between North Korea and Russia ([link removed]) (Choong-Koo Lee, War on the Rocks)

Russia, China, North Korea Relations: Obstacles to a Trilateral Axis ([link removed]) (Elizabeth Wishnick, Foreign Policy Research Institute)

China’s Auto Sales in Russia Are Frozen Solid ([link removed]) (Christian Orr, The National Interest)


** CRANK Perspectives
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China Makes Five-Point Proposals on Iran Nuclear Issue, Calling on Parties to Abandon Pressure and Sanctions ([link removed]) (Global Times)

Iran: Beijing Meeting Urges End to Sanctions and Pressure, Calls for Dialogue ([link removed]) (PressTV)


** CRANK Call
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Editor-in-Chief, Paul Saunders
Editor, Greg Priddy ([email protected])

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