[1]

March 28, 2025

This month’s newsletter features updates to a report estimating how quickly
Iran could enrich enough uranium to fuel a small nuclear arsenal and a
table accounting for Iran’s deployed centrifuges. Based on data from the
most recent International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports, Iran’s
stockpile of 60% enriched uranium is sufficient to fuel five nuclear
weapons if enriched further to weapons-grade. Iran’s installed centrifuges
could achieve the required enrichment in about a week.

The newsletter also includes profiles of Chinese electronics distributors
that have procured U.S.-origin items for Iran’s drone program, as well as
news about the Trump administration’s early efforts to open nuclear
negotiations with Tehran, U.S. strikes against Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi
rebels, and the end of a sanctions waiver for Iraq to import Iranian
electricity. Additions to the Iran Watch library include reports and
statements from the IAEA’s Board of Governors meeting, new U.S. sanctions
targeting purchasers of Iranian oil, and executive and judicial actions
against entities involved in Iran-sponsored hostage taking and acts of
terrorism.

Was this email forwarded to you? [2]Sign up to receive the newsletter in
your inbox, or [3]view the newsletter in your browser.

PUBLICATIONS

[4]

Technicians working near uninstalled Iranian centrifuges. (Photo Credit:
Tasnim News Agency)

Report | [5]Iran’s Nuclear Timetable: The Weapon Potential

Iran’s nuclear program has reached the point at which, within about one
week, Iran might be able to enrich enough uranium for five fission weapons.
This short timeline is enabled by the fact that Iran's stockpile contains
enough uranium enriched to 60% purity to fuel more than five warheads with
further enrichment, which it could do at either its Natanz or Fordow
facilities or a secret site.

[6]READ THE REPORT

Table | [7]Iran's Centrifuges: Models and Status

In recent years, Iran has developed and deployed more powerful centrifuge
models relative to its original IR-1 design. Now the number of these
advanced centrifuge models enriching uranium at declared sites has
surpassed the number of IR-1 machines known to be in production mode.

[8]VIEW THE TABLE

Speeches and Testimony | [9]Podcast Interview on Exploring Iran’s Nuclear
Program

Wisconsin Project Executive Director Valerie Lincy was interviewed about
Iran’s nuclear program on the Center for Arms Control and
Non-Proliferation’s Nukes of Hazard podcast. Valerie answered questions
about the status of the Iranian program, past nuclear diplomacy, and ways
to move forward in the context of decreasing transparency and heightened
tensions in the Middle East.

[10]LISTEN TO THE PODCAST

ENTITIES OF CONCERN

The U.S. Commerce Department has added a number of Chinese companies to its
Entity List for having procured or attempted to procure U.S.-origin items
for Iran's weapons programs.

[11]Detail Technology (HK) Limited

A Hong Kong-based distributor of electronic components; associated with an
address identified by the U.S. Department of Commerce as posing a high risk
of diversion; agents have included Iran-based IC Kala.

[12]LEARN MORE

[13]Shenzhen Jiachuang Weiye Technology Company, Ltd.

A China-based distributor of electronic components; serves clients in the
military, aerospace, communications, consumer electronics, energy,
industrial, medical, and transportation sectors.

[14]LEARN MORE

[15]L-Tong Electronic Technology Company

A China- and Hong Kong-based company; shares an address with [16]Sunrising
Logistics (HK) Ltd.

[17]LEARN MORE

IN THE NEWS

[18]

A fighter aircraft takes off from the USS Harry S. Truman in the U.S.
Central Command area of responsibility. (Photo Credit: U.S. Department of
Defense)

[19]Iran has relayed its response to U.S. President Trump’s letter | IRNA

March 27, 2025: Iran sent its official response to a letter sent by U.S.
President Donald Trump. Trump's letter had sought to open negotiations for
a new nuclear deal. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that Iran's
policy is to engage in indirect negotiations with the United States through
intermediaries. He said that Iran would enter into direct negotiations only
if the United States ended its "maximum pressure" policy toward Iran.
Earlier, Araqchi had said he considered Iranian negotiations with France,
Germany, and the United Kingdom to be indirect talks with the United
States.

[20]Trump Says Houthis in Yemen Will Be 'Annihilated,' as U.S. Keeps Up
Strikes | New York Times

March 19, 2025: The U.S. military carried out a wave of strikes on Houthi
training sites, command centers, and weapons facilities in Yemen. The U.S.
military says the strikes are intended to restore freedom of navigation in
nearby waters. U.S. President Donald Trump also warned Iran to stop arming
the Houthis, who have targeted American warships and commercial vessels
with drones and other weapons since late 2023.

[21]Trump administration ends Iraq's waiver to buy Iranian electricity |
Reuters

March 9, 2025: The United States rescinded a sanctions waiver allowing Iraq
to pay Iran for electricity imports. The waiver had been introduced in 2018
and renewed periodically since then. An advisor to the Iraqi prime minister
said the rescindment would cause "temporary operational challenges" and
Iraq was looking for alternative sources of supply. A U.S. State Department
spokesperson said that imports from Iran comprised 4% of Iraq's electricity
consumption in 2023.

FROM THE LIBRARY

The IAEA’s latest reports indicated continued advances in Iran’s nuclear
program, prompting a round of statements but little concrete action at the
Agency’s Board of Governors meeting.
* The IAEA’s quarterly [22]verification and monitoring report revealed
sharp increases in Iran’s installed centrifuges and 60% enriched uranium
stockpile – February 26.
* The [23]NPT safeguards report again indicated no progress on resolving
outstanding Agency investigations – February 26.
* France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States issued a
[24]joint statement calling on the IAEA to be prepared to find Iran in
non-compliance with its safeguards agreement – March 5.
* The [25]United States and the [26]European countries issued statements
on verification and monitoring and called on Iran to halt its escalatory
nuclear activities – March 4 and 5.
* Russia [27]downplayed the proliferation risk from Iran and
[28]questioned the European countries’ standing to trigger the “snapback”
of U.N. sanctions – March 4 and 5.
* China issued more cautious statements [29]shielding Iran from criticism
and [30]implying that the United States and the European countries are to
blame for nuclear tensions – March 6.

The United States continued its maximum pressure campaign against Iranian
oil exports and procurement of components for its weapon programs.
* The Treasury and State Departments [31]sanctioned Iran’s petroleum
minister and several vessels and companies involved in Iranian oil
shipments – March 13.
* The two departments then sanctioned a [32]Chinese refinery and [33]oil
storage company, in addition to several more vessels and ship management
companies – March 20.
* The State Department [34]offered a reward for information that could
disrupt the activities of four Chinese nationals procuring
export-controlled technology for Iran – March 19.
* The Commerce Department [35]listed an Iranian procurement agent and his
company for attempting to procure U.S. technology for Iran’s drone program
via China – March 25.
* The Justice Department [36]filed for the forfeiture of $47 million in
seized proceeds from the sale of Iranian oil stored in Croatia – March 26.

U.S. authorities also acted against individuals and entities involved in
hostage-taking and terrorist activity directed by Iran.
* A former U.S. Navy sailor [37]pleaded guilty in court to plotting to
attack a military base in Illinois – February 27.
* The U.S. designation of the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization
[38]went into effect – March 4.
* The Treasury Department [39]sanctioned a Swedish gang for carrying out
an attack on the Israeli embassy in Stockholm on behalf of Iran in 2024 –
March 12.
* Two Russian mafia members [40]were convicted in U.S. district court of
attempting to assassinate dissident Masih Alinejad after being hired by
Iran’s government – March 20.
* The Treasury Department [41]sanctioned three Iranian intelligence
officials in connection with the abduction and likely death of former FBI
agent Bob Levinson – March 25.

Iran Watch is a website published by the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms
Control. The Wisconsin Project is a non-profit, non-partisan organization
that conducts research, advocacy, and public education aimed at inhibiting
strategic trade from contributing to the proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction.

Copyright © 2025 - Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control

[42]HOME

[43]ABOUT

[44]CONTACT US

[45]Twitter [46]LinkedIn [47]Facebook

References

1. [link removed]
2. [link removed]
3. [link removed]
4. [link removed]
5. [link removed]
6. [link removed]
7. [link removed]
8. [link removed]
9. [link removed]
10. [link removed]
11. [link removed]
12. [link removed]
13. [link removed]
14. [link removed]
15. [link removed]
16. [link removed]
17. [link removed]
18. [link removed]
19. [link removed]
20. [link removed]
21. [link removed]
22. [link removed]
23. [link removed]
24. [link removed]
25. [link removed]
26. [link removed]
27. [link removed]
28. [link removed]
29. [link removed]
30. [link removed]
31. [link removed]
32. [link removed]
33. [link removed]
34. [link removed]
35. [link removed]
36. [link removed]
37. [link removed]
38. [link removed]
39. [link removed]
40. [link removed]
41. [link removed]
42. [link removed]
43. [link removed]
44. [link removed]
45. [link removed]
46. [link removed]
47. [link removed]
Manage Your Subscription:
[link removed]
This message was sent to [email protected] from [email protected]

Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control
Iran Watch
1701 K Street NW Suite 805
Washington, DC 20006
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

iContact - Engage, WOW, and grow your audience: [link removed]