 | March 28, 2025 This month’s newsletter features updates to a report estimating how quickly Iran could enrich enough uranium to fuel a small nuclear arsenal and a table accounting for Iran’s deployed centrifuges. Based on data from the most recent International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports, Iran’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium is sufficient to fuel five nuclear weapons if enriched further to weapons-grade. Iran’s installed centrifuges could achieve the required enrichment in about a week. The newsletter also includes profiles of Chinese electronics distributors that have procured U.S.-origin items for Iran’s drone program, as well as news about the Trump administration’s early efforts to open nuclear negotiations with Tehran, U.S. strikes against Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels, and the end of a sanctions waiver for Iraq to import Iranian electricity. Additions to the Iran Watch library include reports and statements from the IAEA’s Board of Governors meeting, new U.S. sanctions targeting purchasers of Iranian oil, and executive and judicial actions against entities involved in Iran-sponsored hostage taking and acts of terrorism. Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up to receive the newsletter in your inbox, or view the newsletter in your browser. |
| |
|---|
|
|
| Technicians working near uninstalled Iranian centrifuges. (Photo Credit: Tasnim News Agency) |
|
|---|
|
|
| |
|---|
|
|
| Iran’s nuclear program has reached the point at which, within about one week, Iran might be able to enrich enough uranium for five fission weapons. This short timeline is enabled by the fact that Iran's stockpile contains enough uranium enriched to 60% purity to fuel more than five warheads with further enrichment, which it could do at either its Natanz or Fordow facilities or a secret site. |
| |
|---|
|
|
| In recent years, Iran has developed and deployed more powerful centrifuge models relative to its original IR-1 design. Now the number of these advanced centrifuge models enriching uranium at declared sites has surpassed the number of IR-1 machines known to be in production mode. |
| |
|---|
|
|
| Wisconsin Project Executive Director Valerie Lincy was interviewed about Iran’s nuclear program on the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation’s Nukes of Hazard podcast. Valerie answered questions about the status of the Iranian program, past nuclear diplomacy, and ways to move forward in the context of decreasing transparency and heightened tensions in the Middle East. |
| |
|---|
|
|
| The U.S. Commerce Department has added a number of Chinese companies to its Entity List for having procured or attempted to procure U.S.-origin items for Iran's weapons programs. |
| |
|---|
|
|
| A fighter aircraft takes off from the USS Harry S. Truman in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility. (Photo Credit: U.S. Department of Defense) |
|
|---|
|
|
| |
|---|
|
|
| March 27, 2025: Iran sent its official response to a letter sent by U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump's letter had sought to open negotiations for a new nuclear deal. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that Iran's policy is to engage in indirect negotiations with the United States through intermediaries. He said that Iran would enter into direct negotiations only if the United States ended its "maximum pressure" policy toward Iran. Earlier, Araqchi had said he considered Iranian negotiations with France, Germany, and the United Kingdom to be indirect talks with the United States. |
| |
|---|
|
|
| March 19, 2025: The U.S. military carried out a wave of strikes on Houthi training sites, command centers, and weapons facilities in Yemen. The U.S. military says the strikes are intended to restore freedom of navigation in nearby waters. U.S. President Donald Trump also warned Iran to stop arming the Houthis, who have targeted American warships and commercial vessels with drones and other weapons since late 2023. |
| |
|---|
|
|
| March 9, 2025: The United States rescinded a sanctions waiver allowing Iraq to pay Iran for electricity imports. The waiver had been introduced in 2018 and renewed periodically since then. An advisor to the Iraqi prime minister said the rescindment would cause "temporary operational challenges" and Iraq was looking for alternative sources of supply. A U.S. State Department spokesperson said that imports from Iran comprised 4% of Iraq's electricity consumption in 2023. |
| |
|---|
|
|
| The IAEA’s latest reports indicated continued advances in Iran’s nuclear program, prompting a round of statements but little concrete action at the Agency’s Board of Governors meeting. - The IAEA’s quarterly verification and monitoring report revealed sharp increases in Iran’s installed centrifuges and 60% enriched uranium stockpile – February 26.
- The NPT safeguards report again indicated no progress on resolving outstanding Agency investigations – February 26.
- France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States issued a joint statement calling on the IAEA to be prepared to find Iran in non-compliance with its safeguards agreement – March 5.
- The United States and the European countries issued statements on verification and monitoring and called on Iran to halt its escalatory nuclear activities – March 4 and 5.
- Russia downplayed the proliferation risk from Iran and questioned the European countries’ standing to trigger the “snapback” of U.N. sanctions – March 4 and 5.
- China issued more cautious statements shielding Iran from criticism and implying that the United States and the European countries are to blame for nuclear tensions – March 6.
The United States continued its maximum pressure campaign against Iranian oil exports and procurement of components for its weapon programs. - The Treasury and State Departments sanctioned Iran’s petroleum minister and several vessels and companies involved in Iranian oil shipments – March 13.
- The two departments then sanctioned a Chinese refinery and oil storage company, in addition to several more vessels and ship management companies – March 20.
- The State Department offered a reward for information that could disrupt the activities of four Chinese nationals procuring export-controlled technology for Iran – March 19.
- The Commerce Department listed an Iranian procurement agent and his company for attempting to procure U.S. technology for Iran’s drone program via China – March 25.
- The Justice Department filed for the forfeiture of $47 million in seized proceeds from the sale of Iranian oil stored in Croatia – March 26.
U.S. authorities also acted against individuals and entities involved in hostage-taking and terrorist activity directed by Iran. - A former U.S. Navy sailor pleaded guilty in court to plotting to attack a military base in Illinois – February 27.
- The U.S. designation of the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization went into effect – March 4.
- The Treasury Department sanctioned a Swedish gang for carrying out an attack on the Israeli embassy in Stockholm on behalf of Iran in 2024 – March 12.
- Two Russian mafia members were convicted in U.S. district court of attempting to assassinate dissident Masih Alinejad after being hired by Iran’s government – March 20.
- The Treasury Department sanctioned three Iranian intelligence officials in connection with the abduction and likely death of former FBI agent Bob Levinson – March 25.
|
| |
|---|
|
|
| Iran Watch is a website published by the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control. The Wisconsin Project is a non-profit, non-partisan organization that conducts research, advocacy, and public education aimed at inhibiting strategic trade from contributing to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
Copyright © 2025 - Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control |
| |
|---|
|
|
|
