We’re entering a long fight against a Republican effort to pay for tax
cuts for the rich by ripping food, healthcare, education, and housing
away from the American people. There’s a lot to lay out, so this is a
long email. If you don’t have time for that, feel free to skip ahead to
the ‘what you can do’ section.

[1]Indivisible Logo

Indivisibles,

Last night, every House Republican -- with only one exception -- voted for
a [ [link removed] ]budget framework that would gut Medicaid and other life-or-death
programs in order to fund tax cuts for the rich. The sole no vote wasn’t
some profile in courage, if you were wondering. It was a guy who thought
the bill should have taken more money from hungry kids and struggling
families. 

But this fight is far from over. Last night’s vote was a nonbinding
“concept of a plan.” It was written to be as vague as possible, so
Republicans could cast their vote and then look constituents in the eye
and say “no, I didn’t vote to take away your health insurance! I’d never
do that!” 

The hard part for Republicans comes next -- because now they have to write
a bill that fulfills last night’s promise to cut $2 trillion from the
budget. And spoiler: That can only be done by taking away their
constituents’ healthcare and a lot of other stuff they depend on. It’s
going to be very unpopular. It’s going to make constituents very angry.
And it’s going to cost people their lives. 

Let’s talk about what comes next, how we fight this bill, and how we make
Republicans pay a steep political price for putting billionaires ahead of
their constituents.

What’s next? In a word: Chaos. 

Just because House Republicans agreed on a budget framework yesterday does
not mean they are aligned on the next steps forward.

Senate Republicans have their own, VERY different plan that would separate
government spending and tax cuts into two different bills. The House wants
to do everything -- massive cuts to Medicaid, education, food assistance
to kids, and ungodly tax cuts for billionaires -- all in one bill.

You might be thinking, “they’ll just do whatever Trump says, right?” Well,
Trump endorsed the House approach… and then said he needs to read both. We
know Trump doesn’t actually read bills, so his decision could hinge on a
tweet from Elon Musk or something he hears tomorrow on Fox and Friends. 

One bill or two, the real challenge here is getting House and Senate
Republicans to agree on how to go about cutting trillions from the budget.
Oh, they love the idea in theory. Spending cuts are even popular with
voters… in theory. But things change when it actually comes time to name
the programs that are going to be gutted. 

To come anywhere close to the kind of cuts Republicans are talking about,
Medicaid would have to be slashed by about $800 billion over the next
decade. Quick facts:

* 72 million Americans rely on Medicaid. 
* 41% of births in the US are paid for by the program. 
* Medicaid is the primary payer for nursing home care (something felt
not just by those requiring the care, but their adult children as
well) 
* One estimate suggests [ [link removed] ]36 million people could lose their healthcare
coverage as a result of the bill. 

That’s just the cuts to Medicaid. A lot of other popular programs would
need to be hollowed out or completely terminated to reach the $2 trillion
mark. Here’s a chart showing how cuts to SNAP (food assistance) would
impact potential voters in districts where Republicans will face tight
reelections next year:

[4]Chart showing Republicans in competitive districts and the number of
SNAP recipients in their district.

[ [link removed] ]Source: Vote Save America

Negotiations are going to drag on for months. Republicans from swing
districts are going to get cold feet on the Medicaid cuts (some have
already been spooked into [ [link removed] ]public statements). Meanwhile, the most
hardline conservatives are going to threaten to pull support if the budget
isn’t slashed enough to offset the billionaire tax cuts Trump cares about
above all else. It’s going to be a mess. 

And that means we’ve got months to turn up the heat on Republicans and
make them spend each and every day talking about why they are gutting
programs for poor and working people to fund tax cuts for the rich.
Delicious bonus? A congressional recess is coming. Every representative
and senator is going to be back in their state or district coming face to
face with pissed off voters (you).

What you can do 

If we do our job right, the next few months are going to resemble the
fight to save the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in 2017. Back then,
Republicans had a much bigger margin in the House. They had a slightly
smaller majority in the Senate. And they were trying to take away people’s
healthcare using a similar legislative process -- reconciliation -- that
would allow them to bypass the filibuster and pass their repeal bill with
only 50 votes ([ [link removed] ]an explainer on reconciliation can be found here). 

We had Republicans’ phones ringing off the hooks. Constituents were so
angry that the GOP simply stopped having town halls so they could avoid
being yelled at -- but people found ways to confront them in their
offices, at airports, and outside fundraisers. We also put together tons
of events to make Members of Congress look really bad for being afraid to
face their constituents. In the end, we won. 

If anything, this bill is going to be even more unpopular than the effort
to repeal the ACA. If passed, it’d hurt more people. And it’s being paired
with incredibly unpopular tax cuts for billionaires. The politics are
AWFUL. People are going to be fearful and angry. It’s up to us to harness
that energy and convince a handful of Republican representatives (the math
will depend on upcoming special elections) and/or four Republican senators
to vote no -- or to make the politics SO toxic that Republicans are forced
to rework the budget framework completely.

If you are represented by Republicans in the House and/or Senate

We’ve set up tools to help you easily contact your elected officials in
opposition to this budget proposal. 

[ [link removed] ]Call your Republican Senator >> 
[ [link removed] ]Email your Republican Senator >>

[ [link removed] ]Call your Republican Representative >>
[ [link removed] ]Email your Republican Representative >> 

But calls are just the start. Defeating this bill is going to take
in-person action -- office visits, protests, and more. In the next two
days, we’ll be reaching out with plans for how we’re going to use the next
Congressional recess (March 15-23) to plan events in all 50 states, and
with your help, every congressional district.

If you are represented by Democrats in the House and/or Senate

We’ve been saying for weeks that Democrats aren’t showing up to fight in
the way this moment requires. But credit where credit is due: Last night
Dems showed up. Literally. Rep. Brittany Pettersen (CO-7) cut short her
maternity leave and flew across the country -- with her newborn baby -- to
cast a no vote. Rep. Kevin Mullin (CA-15) went straight from the hospital
where he was being treated for surgery complications to the airport so he
could vote no. If a few shameless Republicans hadn’t flipped at the last
minute, their heroic efforts would have blocked the resolution. 

Dems are speaking with one voice:

[12]Tweet from House Democrats opposing Republicans’ reckless budget with
House Democrats lined up in a show of force on the Capitol steps behind a
lectern.

Now, we need to ensure they speak loudly. We anticipate that Republicans
are going to hide from voters during the next Congressional recess, so
Dems have a chance to fill the void by hosting townhalls in their
districts AND nearby GOP districts to raise the alarm about this bill.
We’ll be talking a lot more about this in the coming days, [ [link removed] ]but for now
you can use our email tool to urge your Democratic Member(s) of Congress
to schedule town halls during the recess >>

If you’re in DC

We don’t have a call to action for you yet. But we can guarantee some big
protests on this around the Capitol as we get close to a vote. We’ll be
creating social media toolkits you can share outlining the harm the bill
causes. And there’s a good chance we’ll be setting up phonebanks so you
can reach out to voters in Republican districts and urge them to make
calls/attend events to put pressure on target reps and senators.

One more thing: Government funding runs out in 16 days

We waited until the end for this, because it gets a little confusing.
Everything we discussed above relates to funding beginning in fiscal year
2026, which starts on October 1 of this year. But Congress hasn’t actually
funded the government for the rest of fiscal year 2025 yet -- meaning
you’ll hear increasing chatter about a potential shutdown in the coming
weeks, and the two fights could easily become conflated.

We’ll try to simplify: 

 1. March 14 deadline: If you hear discussion about a possible shutdown or
‘funding the government’ over the next few weeks, people are likely
talking about fiscal year 2025 funding. This funding bill will need to
be passed by regular procedure, which means if Republicans try to slip
in anti-immigrant provisions or massive cuts, Senate Democrats can use
the filibuster and stop it. Because the bill will require Democratic
votes, Dems have a TON of leverage in these negotiations, which they
can use to force restrictions on Elon Musks’s lawless raiding of the
government. [ [link removed] ]We have email and call tools urging Dems to use this
leverage here. 

 2. Republican Budget: Anything you hear about the Republican budget
negotiations, reconciliation bill, Trump Tax scam, Medicaid cuts,
funding for Trump’s agenda, etc. is referring to the BIG fight we
covered in this email. Those spending/tax provisions would go into
effect for fiscal year 2026 or later. 

We’re sure this will give rise to some confusion, so don’t hesitate to
reach out with questions. Great place for Qs? Our weekly Zoom chats.
[ [link removed] ]We’ve got one tomorrow, Thursday at 3pm, and you can sign up here. 

Watch this space 

Moments like these are what Indivisible was made for. This GOP framework
is more incendiary than a cybertruck and will soon be even more reviled.
The backlash to Trump’s presidency has already begun, but this
unimaginably cruel budget is how we’re going to kick it into overdrive. 

Let’s show up. Let’s organize. Let’s win. 

In solidarity,
Indivisible Team 

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