Indivisibles,

Last night, every House Republican -- with only one exception -- voted for a budget framework that would gut Medicaid and other life-or-death programs in order to fund tax cuts for the rich. The sole no vote wasn’t some profile in courage, if you were wondering. It was a guy who thought the bill should have taken more money from hungry kids and struggling families. 

But this fight is far from over. Last night’s vote was a nonbinding “concept of a plan.” It was written to be as vague as possible, so Republicans could cast their vote and then look constituents in the eye and say “no, I didn’t vote to take away your health insurance! I’d never do that!” 

The hard part for Republicans comes next -- because now they have to write a bill that fulfills last night’s promise to cut $2 trillion from the budget. And spoiler: That can only be done by taking away their constituents’ healthcare and a lot of other stuff they depend on. It’s going to be very unpopular. It’s going to make constituents very angry. And it’s going to cost people their lives. 

Let’s talk about what comes next, how we fight this bill, and how we make Republicans pay a steep political price for putting billionaires ahead of their constituents.

What’s next? In a word: Chaos. 

Just because House Republicans agreed on a budget framework yesterday does not mean they are aligned on the next steps forward.

Senate Republicans have their own, VERY different plan that would separate government spending and tax cuts into two different bills. The House wants to do everything -- massive cuts to Medicaid, education, food assistance to kids, and ungodly tax cuts for billionaires -- all in one bill.

You might be thinking, “they’ll just do whatever Trump says, right?” Well, Trump endorsed the House approach… and then said he needs to read both. We know Trump doesn’t actually read bills, so his decision could hinge on a tweet from Elon Musk or something he hears tomorrow on Fox and Friends. 

One bill or two, the real challenge here is getting House and Senate Republicans to agree on how to go about cutting trillions from the budget. Oh, they love the idea in theory. Spending cuts are even popular with voters… in theory. But things change when it actually comes time to name the programs that are going to be gutted. 

To come anywhere close to the kind of cuts Republicans are talking about, Medicaid would have to be slashed by about $800 billion over the next decade. Quick facts:

• 72 million Americans rely on Medicaid. 
• 41% of births in the US are paid for by the program. 
• Medicaid is the primary payer for nursing home care (something felt not just by those requiring the care, but their adult children as well) 
• One estimate suggests 36 million people could lose their healthcare coverage as a result of the bill. 

That’s just the cuts to Medicaid. A lot of other popular programs would need to be hollowed out or completely terminated to reach the $2 trillion mark. Here’s a chart showing how cuts to SNAP (food assistance) would impact potential voters in districts where Republicans will face tight reelections next year:

Source: Vote Save America

Negotiations are going to drag on for months. Republicans from swing districts are going to get cold feet on the Medicaid cuts (some have already been spooked into public statements). Meanwhile, the most hardline conservatives are going to threaten to pull support if the budget isn’t slashed enough to offset the billionaire tax cuts Trump cares about above all else. It’s going to be a mess. 

And that means we’ve got months to turn up the heat on Republicans and make them spend each and every day talking about why they are gutting programs for poor and working people to fund tax cuts for the rich. Delicious bonus? A congressional recess is coming. Every representative and senator is going to be back in their state or district coming face to face with pissed off voters (you).

What you can do 

If we do our job right, the next few months are going to resemble the fight to save the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in 2017. Back then, Republicans had a much bigger margin in the House. They had a slightly smaller majority in the Senate. And they were trying to take away people’s healthcare using a similar legislative process -- reconciliation -- that would allow them to bypass the filibuster and pass their repeal bill with only 50 votes (an explainer on reconciliation can be found here). 

We had Republicans’ phones ringing off the hooks. Constituents were so angry that the GOP simply stopped having town halls so they could avoid being yelled at -- but people found ways to confront them in their offices, at airports, and outside fundraisers. We also put together tons of events to make Members of Congress look really bad for being afraid to face their constituents. In the end, we won. 

If anything, this bill is going to be even more unpopular than the effort to repeal the ACA. If passed, it’d hurt more people. And it’s being paired with incredibly unpopular tax cuts for billionaires. The politics are AWFUL. People are going to be fearful and angry. It’s up to us to harness that energy and convince a handful of Republican representatives (the math will depend on upcoming special elections) and/or four Republican senators to vote no -- or to make the politics SO toxic that Republicans are forced to rework the budget framework completely.

If you are represented by Republicans in the House and/or Senate

We’ve set up tools to help you easily contact your elected officials in opposition to this budget proposal. 

Call your Republican Senator >> 
Email your Republican Senator >>

Call your Republican Representative >>
Email your Republican Representative >> 

But calls are just the start. Defeating this bill is going to take in-person action -- office visits, protests, and more. In the next two days, we’ll be reaching out with plans for how we’re going to use the next Congressional recess (March 15-23) to plan events in all 50 states, and with your help, every congressional district.

If you are represented by Democrats in the House and/or Senate

We’ve been saying for weeks that Democrats aren’t showing up to fight in the way this moment requires. But credit where credit is due: Last night Dems showed up. Literally. Rep. Brittany Pettersen (CO-7) cut short her maternity leave and flew across the country -- with her newborn baby -- to cast a no vote. Rep. Kevin Mullin (CA-15) went straight from the hospital where he was being treated for surgery complications to the airport so he could vote no. If a few shameless Republicans hadn’t flipped at the last minute, their heroic efforts would have blocked the resolution. 

Dems are speaking with one voice:

Now, we need to ensure they speak loudly. We anticipate that Republicans are going to hide from voters during the next Congressional recess, so Dems have a chance to fill the void by hosting townhalls in their districts AND nearby GOP districts to raise the alarm about this bill. We’ll be talking a lot more about this in the coming days, but for now you can use our email tool to urge your Democratic Member(s) of Congress to schedule town halls during the recess >>

If you’re in DC

We don’t have a call to action for you yet. But we can guarantee some big protests on this around the Capitol as we get close to a vote. We’ll be creating social media toolkits you can share outlining the harm the bill causes. And there’s a good chance we’ll be setting up phonebanks so you can reach out to voters in Republican districts and urge them to make calls/attend events to put pressure on target reps and senators.

One more thing: Government funding runs out in 16 days

We waited until the end for this, because it gets a little confusing. Everything we discussed above relates to funding beginning in fiscal year 2026, which starts on October 1 of this year. But Congress hasn’t actually funded the government for the rest of fiscal year 2025 yet -- meaning you’ll hear increasing chatter about a potential shutdown in the coming weeks, and the two fights could easily become conflated.

We’ll try to simplify: 

1. March 14 deadline: If you hear discussion about a possible shutdown or ‘funding the government’ over the next few weeks, people are likely talking about fiscal year 2025 funding. This funding bill will need to be passed by regular procedure, which means if Republicans try to slip in anti-immigrant provisions or massive cuts, Senate Democrats can use the filibuster and stop it. Because the bill will require Democratic votes, Dems have a TON of leverage in these negotiations, which they can use to force restrictions on Elon Musks’s lawless raiding of the government. We have email and call tools urging Dems to use this leverage here. 

2. Republican Budget: Anything you hear about the Republican budget negotiations, reconciliation bill, Trump Tax scam, Medicaid cuts, funding for Trump’s agenda, etc. is referring to the BIG fight we covered in this email. Those spending/tax provisions would go into effect for fiscal year 2026 or later. 

We’re sure this will give rise to some confusion, so don’t hesitate to reach out with questions. Great place for Qs? Our weekly Zoom chats. We’ve got one tomorrow, Thursday at 3pm, and you can sign up here. 

Watch this space 

Moments like these are what Indivisible was made for. This GOP framework is more incendiary than a cybertruck and will soon be even more reviled. The backlash to Trump’s presidency has already begun, but this unimaginably cruel budget is how we’re going to kick it into overdrive. 

Let’s show up. Let’s organize. Let’s win. 

In solidarity,
Indivisible Team