On January 15, Hamas announced its agreement to a ceasefire with Israel to end
the 15-month war in Gaza started by Hamas’s October 7, 2023, terror attack. The
United States, Qatar, and Egypt brokered the multiphase agreement, which would
see Israel pause its war in Gaza during the first stage and release an
unspecified number of Palestinian prisoners from its custody. In exchange,
Hamas would begin the phased release of 33 hostages over the course of 42 days,
including women, children, people with severe injuries, and those older than
50. It remains unclear how many of the 33 hostages in question are still alive.
The remaining 65 hostages would be released only if Hamas and Israel agree to
extend the pause in fighting and negotiate for a permanent ceasefire and the
release of the remaining hostages. Negotiations to secure a second phase of the
deal would begin after 16 days. The latter stages of the agreement would
include the release of all remaining hostages and a plan to rebuild Gaza.
Israel’s security cabinet approved the agreement early on January 17 and sent
the deal to Israel’s full cabinet for final approval. Though far-right members
of Israel’s government oppose the agreement, observers largely expect it to
pass the cabinet. Upon approval, the ceasefire and Hamas’s first wave of
hostage releases would begin on January 19.





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CounterPoint Brief: Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Deal


(New York, N.Y.) — On January 15, Hamas announced its agreement to a ceasefire
with Israel to end the 15-month war in Gaza started by Hamas’s October 7, 2023,
terror attack. The United States, Qatar, and Egypt brokered the multiphase
agreement, which would see Israel pause its war in Gaza during the first stage
and release an unspecified number of Palestinian prisoners from its custody. In
exchange, Hamas would begin the phased release of 33 hostages over the course
of 42 days, including women, children, people with severe injuries, and those
older than 50. It remains unclear how many of the 33 hostages in question are
still alive. The remaining 65 hostages would be released only if Hamas and
Israel agree to extend the pause in fighting and negotiate for a permanent
ceasefire and the release of the remaining hostages. Negotiations to secure a
second phase of the deal would begin after 16 days. The latter stages of the
agreement would include the release of all remaining hostages and a plan to
rebuild Gaza. Israel’s security cabinet approved the agreement early on January
17 and sent the deal to Israel’s full cabinet for final approval. Though
far-right members of Israel’s government oppose the agreement, observers
largely expect it to pass the cabinet. Upon approval, the ceasefire and Hamas’s
first wave of hostage releases would begin on January 19.



CEP Senior Director Hans-Jakob Schindler



This deal clearly shows the weakness of Hamas because its multi-pronged
strategy to stop Israeli military operations through political pressure—via
propaganda and intentional suffering of civilian population and the expansion
of the conflict regionally—has failed. Israel did not ultimately bend to
international pressure. Moreover, Hamas now has a much-diminished terror
infrastructure in Gaza, including the tunnel network, as well as its
command-and-control structure in the Strip.



Phase one of the deal is likely to be implemented, since in this instance the
individual steps have been agreed: timing and number of hostages and
Palestinian prisoners. However, phases two and three are politically very
difficult for the Israeli government internally to agree and therefore less
likely to be achieved, at least in the short-term.



Clearly, Hamas is significantly weakened at the moment. However, most of the
Hamas money is still untouched (companies still operating in Turkey, Lebanon,
Qatar, Kuwait, Algeria, Saudi Arabia) and the financial management of Hamas in
Lebanon and Turkey is still operational. The world should now demand: no safe
havens for Hamas leaders and in particular Hamas financial managers; the
freezing of Hamas assets globally; and pursue global efforts to classify Hamas
as a terrorist organization.



CEP Senior Analyst Josh Lipowsky



The acceptance of a ceasefire and hostage deal by both Hamas and Israel’s
security cabinet brings renewed hope to families whose loved ones have been
held captive by Hamas for over a year. Hamas has been notably weakened by the
ensuing war, the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, and the deaths of
October 7 architects Mohammed Deif, Marwan Issa, and Yahya Sinwar. It is likely
not a coincidence that Hamas announced the resumption of ceasefire talks on
January 5, two days after Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire with Israel, which
left Hamas without the ‘safety net’ of Hezbollah waging war on Israel’s
northern front and distracting it from Gaza. As it has done in the past, Hamas
turned to negotiations when it saw it had been backed into a corner. But Hamas
has a history of breaking ceasefires with Israel, most notably the ceasefire
that was in place on October 6, 2023. The international community must ensure
that Hamas does not use this time to rebuild itself. Gaza must be rebuilt, but
without Hamas.



To read CEP’s Group Report on Hamas, click here
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