Breaking down the news with data, charts, and maps.
Happy Thursday! In today’s newsletter, we examine the exodus from blue to red states, 5 representatives who outran President-elect Donald Trump in close districts, and the broad consensus around high-skilled immigration.

Edited by Sutton Houser and James Desio

Did a friend send you this email? Subscribe <[link removed]> today! For inquiries, email [email protected] <[link removed]>.
1. Blue State Exodus
Topline: As some Democratic governors vow to resist Donald Trump’s policies, AEI’s Edward Pinto explains <[link removed]> that many Americans are leaving these governors’ states for Republican-led states. IRS data reveal a significant exodus from blue to red states over the past 30 years.



- Between 1990 and 2021, net domestic migration shows that 13 million people left California, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York. During the same period, 13 million people moved to Arizona, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas.


The Problem: Pinto attributes this migration to progressive policies that have made blue states less attractive to live in. These policies have resulted in unaffordable housing, high crime rates, and steep taxes.

Better Policies: To reverse this trend, Pinto recommends blue states copy Texas and
Florida’s policy playbook. Both states encouraged migration by implementing affordable housing policies, reducing crime, assisting blue-collar job placement, promoting school choice, and lowering taxes.




“Failure to take these actions will mean that with all their talk of 'resistance,' their states will face a doom
loop of permanent decline due to shrinking populations, . . . increasing poverty, and a less prosperous future for their children and grandchildren.” 
—Edward Pinto
2. Polling on High-Skilled Immigration
Topline: Absent in the public discussion on immigration is American’s overwhelming support for high-skilled immigration, finds <[link removed]> AEI’s James Pethokoukis. A June 2024 survey <[link removed]> by the Economic Innovation Group found that 74% of voters support allowing more legal, high-skilled immigration.

Boosting Innovation: Silicon Valley leaders, perhaps unsurprisingly, support increasing high-skilled immigration as it plays a key role in American innovation.


- The Hoover Institution found <[link removed]> 16% of US inventors are immigrants and 23% of all new inventions can be credited to immigrants. When you combine immigrants’ direct contributions with their indirect influence on US entrepreneurism, 36% of all innovation in the US is attributable to immigrants.



Big Picture: Pethokoukis suggests America could cultivate high-skilled immigration by permitting students to receive green cards after graduation and doubling employment-based green cards issued each
year.




“This might be one of the most underappreciated facts of American public opinion: As controversial as the subject of immigration
is, high-skill immigration isn’t controversial at all.” 
—James Pethokoukis
3. Moderate Rs in Close Races
Topline: With all the election results in, AEI’s Chris Stirewalt zooms in <[link removed]> on 5 Republican representatives who won competitive seats and outperformed Donald Trump. Stirewalt finds the common attribute of these candidates is they ran as moderates.

Winning Factor: Each of these Republicans is explicitly committed to political moderation and bipartisan cooperation. For example, Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) led Trump by the largest margin and notably serves as the cochairman of the Problem Solvers Caucus, a bipartisan group with an even split between Republicans and Democrats.

Looking Ahead: When Republicans look to hold their narrow House majority in the 2026
midterms, Stirewalt advises them to remember that swing voters favor moderation.




“And if there’s a mandate for anything from this year’s results it’s the same one we’ve seen in cycle after
cycle for a decade: The majority markers in American politics sit squarely in the squishy center.” 
—Chris Stirewalt
Last but Not Least . . .
Deep Dive: The Update on Syria <[link removed]>
States Can Shake Up the Higher Education <[link removed]>
Special thanks to Carter Hutchinson, Drew Kirkpatrick, and Hannah Bowen!
Thanks for reading. We will be back with more data next Thursday!

For more data insights, subscribe today <[link removed]>.

Email us <[link removed]> with data questions or ideas.
View online <[[[link removed]]]>  |   Ensure delivery <[link removed]>  |   Subscribe <[link removed]>


American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036
202.862.5800  |  www.aei.org <[link removed]>


<[link removed]>   <[link removed]>   <[link removed]>   <[link removed]>    <[link removed]>  
<[link removed]> Donate to AEI <[link removed]> in support of defending and promoting freedom, opportunity, and enterprise.
This message is for: [email protected] <[email protected]> | Manage preferences <[link removed]> or Unsubscribe <[link removed]>

<!-- This is a comment -->